The OFFICIAL 2012 Prediction Thread

[thirdcoast]

I decide to go ahead and make a new list of predictions since we now know what music the corps will be performing for the most part. So I reached into my closet to pull an my crystal ball just to find a large crack that I had not previously seen. I wonder how far back this has affected my predictions? So in a moment of desperation I pulled out an old Ouija Board. I tried let it know about the programs for each Corps and it told me that it had known this information for decades... It also told me it knew the winner of next years Super Bowl but i told it I didn't care or pro football.

So here are my and to a greater extent my Ouija Boards predictions.

1. Carolina Crown

2. Phantom Regiment

3. Blue Devils

4. Cadets

5. Boston Crusaders

6. Cavaliers

7. Santa Clara

8. Bluecoats

9. Spirit of Atlanta

10. Blue Knights

11. The Academy

12. Crossman

13. Madison Scouts

14. Blue Stars...

15. Glassmen

16. Jersey Surf

17. Troopers

This list is of course subject to change.. I haven't read the tea leaves yet.

I have to tell you, I used this post this year... thanks!

[KakkoiiOtaku]

I'm not going to call this a prediction ... but this is what I HOPE happens. And I know it's not going to be popular with some, but here it goes anyway. I'm also going to put what I HOPE they score on Finals night but, again, this is not a prediction ... just a hope. I do use reasoning for my hope, but don't take me saying things like "I don't see x happening," or anything like that, to mean this is a prediction. I do see this being the closest Top 10, if not Top 12, in a LONG time.

1. Carolina Crown - 98.950 or 99.200

I just really feel like this is their year. Once they get everything cleaned up, I really feel we'll have our first new champion since 1996. This is, by far, the hardest show Crown has ever done and they are executing as such a high level already. I have the utmost faith that the staff they have can clean this up so that it wins the Gold at Finals. Also, I really think that they have the staff and membership to edge out the highest score of all time ... IF they work their butts off over the next six weeks. It will take a LOT to pull that off, but I have faith.

2. The Cadets - 98.500

I really highly enjoy this show. I know usually people see the Cadets as having an off year after a Championship, but this year will not be the case. 12.25 is a fantastic show and the corps are executing it incredibly well. The new ending I saw at FirstBEAT, once cleaned, will be awesome! I don't think they'll repeat ... but I do think they will give Crown a run for their money. I think they'll be close to Crown all summer long and will finish just a few tenths behind them.

3. Santa Clara Vanguard - 97.100

This is my second favorite show of the season ... but I don't see it topping Cadets. They're too good. I also think that if Vanguard can pull up to Bronze this year, it won't be by much. In fact, I have the entire 3-5 block incredibly close. However, if they can somehow find a way to sneak in "Music of the Night" at the end (as we've all been hoping for since they announced the name of the show), I think that will also boost them up to the Bronze. Perhaps, that would put them in even more definitively.

4. Phantom Regiment - 96.850

Phantom has a great show this year. Some have said it's too easy, but I believe what others say: that they have a lot more to put in. I know that waiting to put in "killing" Will Pitts in 2008 until Allentown is what won them the Championship. I really feel that, had they put that in earlier, they might not have won ... even though they still would have deserved to. This is a strong corps and I really don't see them placing any lower than 4th. I also don't see them placing any higher. Also, I'd just really love to see Phantom score over Blue Devils by .025 again.

5. Blue Devils - 96.825

I really cannot stand this show. I've said this in the past and come to actually enjoy the show later (2008 for example), but I don't think that will be the case here. I just feel like Blue Devils just try to do the most "out there" show possible way too often. I'd love to see Blue Devils go back to doing shows like 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2003. All four of those shows are in my Top 50 Favorite Drum Corps shows of all time! I'd even take a show that was musically like 2009. I say "musically" because I still hate the chairs. But, because of the strength of the music, I still enjoy that show. It's also in my Top 50 Favorite Drum Corps shows of all time. I'm saying all this to show that I'm not a Blue Devils hater as some are probably still going to assume I am. I just don't like the course they've been going down the last few years. Sometimes I like the music, but I usually can't stand what they do with it visually. Still, they execute at a high level, regardless of how I feel about their show. So, I know it will be incredibly close between 3 and 5 ... like it was between 5 and 7 in 2007 between Crown, Bluecoats and Vanguard. I just really feel like it will end up with them in 5th ... but if this were to actually happen, there will only be a few tenths between 3rd and 5th.

6. Madison Scouts - 95.700

Madison Scouts are on FIRE this year! I was blown away by what I saw on the surprise Muncie Webcast. This show has me just as excited as the entire Drum Corps community was when the Troopers made it back into Finals for the first time in 23 years in 2009. Yes, I wish the closer was nothing but Malaga, because I think Malaga is one of the best closers of all time, but I really enjoy what we get. In fact, the fact that they are doing the rotating company front again, IN IT'S ENTIRETY, really amazes me. They tried it with Malaga in 2004, but only got did it about halfway before breaking it up. I may take this back after watching it a second time, but I feel they were cleaner with that rotating company front in Muncie the other night than the corps was on Finals night in 1995. If not cleaner, than just as clean -- and it's still six weeks to Finals! Once they get cleaned up, I definitely feel like this is a possible Finals placement for the Men of Madison!

7. Bluecoats - 94.850

Bluecoats are a fantastic corps and they are executing well, but I just don't really get the show this year. The first thing I don't like is their arrangement of "Masquerade." I love "Phantom of the Opera" and their arrangement takes too many liberties with the melody. The rest of the show, while executed well, just did not, pardon the musical pun, strike a chord with me.

8. Spirit of Atlanta - 94.125

Just like Madison Scouts ... Spirit of Atlanta are on FIRE this year! I think that being back in Finals last year really steeled their resolve and has them pushing higher. The corps is stronger than last year with an even more entertaining show. Their horn line is FANTASTIC, once again, and I really would love to see them in the Top 8 this year. I think they have the corps and staff to do it -- especially with where the've been scoring next to the Cavaliers.

9. Boston Crusaders - 93.750

I love Boston Crusaders and love their show this year. The only reason I hope they're out of the Top 8 is because I'd love to see both Madison and Spirit up there this year. I would hope that it would be close, though.

10. The Cavaliers - 93.250

And now, the Cavaliers. We've seen this happen before ... a corps has a fantastic year and then the next, they are weak. Phantom 2008 and 2009 comes to mind. They dropped from 1st to 9th. With the Cavaliers scoring where they are, I fully believe this to be a possibility. They could still have some surprises up their sleeve, but I don't think that any surprise they have will save them from falling out of the Top 8. This has even happened with the Cavaliers before. I feel like this is going to be 1997 all over again, but worse. There have even been people comparing this to 1997 and saying this show is worse than 1997. Still, everyone will be close this year, regardless of placement.

11. Blue Stars - 91.95

Blue Stars had my second favorite show of the season last season. I was hoping they'd do something similar this year. However, they have not. While I do really enjoy the show they're putting on this year, I still feel like it's missing something from last year's show.

12. Crossmen - 89.750

I saw the Crossmen live at FirstBEAT and loved what I saw and heard. Especially after last night's score, once they clean this show up, I think they have a chance of making Finals again.

Okay, so there are my hopes for Finals night. I know they won't be popular with some, but this is what I hope will happen.

[wesleyrp]

Cavies won't drop to 10 you can be sure of that. Spirit and Xmen both have good shows but may havetrouble keeping up as they're not as challenging as BStars or BK.

That said user it this way:

1) Crown

2) BD

3) Cadets

4) Bluecoats

5) SCV

6) Madison

7) Phantom

8) Cavies

9) Boston

10) BK

11) Spirit

12) Blue Stars

13) Xmen- Barely

[theCHEZman]

1. CROWN

2. CADETS

3. PHANTOM

4. BLUE DEVILS

5. BLUECOATS

6. MADISON

7. SCV

8. BOSTON

9. CAVALIERS

10.SPIRIT

11.BLUE KNIGHTS

12.CROSSMEN

My general feeling at this point.

[Catan]

Top 17, excluding Open Class corps (haven't seen any yet):

1. Blue Devils - The most innovative and creative show I have seen in a long time. There is a lot to still be sorted out visually, but I think this show has the most potential out of any program, imo. BD's execution across the board is always at or near the top as well.

2. Carolina Crown - This show is difficult and highly entertaining, with perhaps the best musical book of the year. Execution is already first rate, but the visual program is just not championship caliber.

3. Cadets - Execution will keep them in medal contention, as they are doing quite well. Beautiful musical program. Like Crown, I believe the visual program will hold the corps back (GE wise).

4. Phantom Regiment - the best visual program of the year, by far. The drill is musical and works perfectly, the guard is on fire, and the corps marches well. Music performance (brass and percussion) will keep them out of medal contention.

5. Bluecoats - Excellent brass and percussion, a well-arranged and performed music book. Like others, I believe the visual program, while better than last year, will be a detriment in the end.

6. Santa Clara Vanguard - From the looks of it they'll probably win percussion, and the hornline is leagues better than last year. GE wise (musically and visually) this show lacks the punch to move SCV up.

7. The Cavaliers - I'm not sure why the judges seem to dislike this show so much, as I think it is generally well designed (especially musically). Performance (in all captions, but in particular visual) will result in a steep drop in finals placement for them. I do see them ultimately close to SCV though.

8. Boston Crusaders - A very well written program musically and visually. Execution is better than last year, especially the guard. While entertaining, the show doesn't have the demand (visually or musically) to take the corps any higher.

9. Madison Scouts - They could end up as high as 6th if they execute, but (and I seem to be in the minority here admittedly) I do not think the show contains as much potential as others have mused. GE wise, the arrangements are choppy and not quite gelling yet. The visual program again is a major weakness.

10. Blue Stars - Well designed show, though once again Myron has written drill that is too difficult and way too condensed. The show has a lot of room to grow cleanliness wise though, and I think ultimately they will solidly remain in finals.

11. Spirit of Atlanta - They are hot right now, and for good reasons, with an entertaining show. Hornline is much stronger than last year. Ultimately I think the visual program is not demanding or varied enough to take them much higher.

12. Blue Knights - Another wild card. If they clean this show and make some minor rewrites, they could go much higher placement wise. At this point though, they are very far behind execution wise, and I'm not sure they can catch up. We'll see.

13. Glassmen - They could make finals if they execute - the drumline is always strong and the hornline is better than last year. I think the program at this point is weaker visually and musically (the loss of Don Hill hurt a lot) than last year. I think out of all of last year's non-finalists they have the best chance to make it in.

14. Troopers - The play and march well. Interesting show concept, but a lot needs to be done to make it work. The visual design (like last year) is just not finalist caliber.

15. Crossmen - Musically they have improved quite a bit, and they have been scoring well. I think this show will move them up, but lacks the visual umph to get them into finals.

16. The Academy - off to a really rough start, but they have a talented staff that can propel them forwards. Haven't seen the show yet, so this is a bit of a guess.

17. Colts - Unfortunately the show isn't quite gelling. They look quite young and execution will keep them back in the rankings. The visual program is solid, but they need to clean it.

It seems to me that visual design has taken a major step backwards for many corps this year, but musically 2012 sounds great!

[BDAMom]

I'll play.

1. Blue Devils- this show is eye candy. The individual talent level is very evident.

2. Carolina Crown- insane, superhuman brass. There is nothing "common" about that hornline. Percussion will hold them back unfortunately. Those backfield timpani need to be tuned (kiddo up front is doing fine)

3. Cadets- Personally, I'm just not feeling the Christmas theme. Usual solid performances out of Cadets though will probably keep them in medal contention.

4. Phantom Regiment- The Cadets definitely need to keep checking their rearview. PR's show is stunning, as usual. With some cleaning they could overtake Cadets.

5. Santa Clara - holy percussion, Batman.

6. Bluecoats- the usual excellent execution we see from Bloo, but this show is just a little too...easy to keep them out of the top 5 this year in comparison to what the others are doing.

7. Cavaliers- the show concept is so weak. I'm really hoping that they will scrap most of it and start over. It could be really cool and is certainly applicable these days.

8. Madison Scouts- could easily beat the Cavies.

9. Boston Crusaders- could also beat the Cavies, but don't see them beating Madison (and that kills me- I'm a BAC alum parent). LOVE, LOVE the source material.

10. Spirit of Atlanta- that brass. So happy to see the surge of this corps.

11. Blue Knights- this show just leaves me a little empty.

12. Crossmen- In years past this show would not have been strong enough to make it to Saturday night, but this year the door is most DEFINITELY open. It's time to step through it, Crossmen.

13. Blue Stars- when I saw this in the movie theater, my heart went out to the performers. They had a very rough run. The design package is just not there. the kids are performing their hearts out but they just don't have enough to work with.

Beyond that, I haven't seen enough to really accurately predict (that's not saying that these predictions are accurate, either! This is just for fun!)

Some thoughts-

Right now, I'm seeing spots 7,8, and 9 as somewhat interchangeable. I can see Madison being in 7th, and can see BAC being in 8th followed by Cavies in 9th. Or switching Cavies and Madison (7th for MS, 8th for Cavies).

At this time, I could also see PR medaling and knocking Cadets to 4th.

And yes- I said it- Crossmen in 12th unless Blue Stars does a lot of rewrites.

Captions:

Brass- Crown

Guard- BD

Percussion- SCV or BD

Visual- BD

[DCImonkey]

Cavies are gonna bring it next year!

Number 8 is coming for the Green Machine soon, I can feel it!

:thumbup:

I just wanted to point out the irony of this post made last year!

YOU WERE SO RIGHT!!!! Number 8 indeed

[DCImonkey]

Can I predict that Teal will fold?

YIKES! Winner here too....sadly

[corps8294]

Well, at least everyone was pretty much spot on with Pioneer.

[Shadowtron]

1. Blue Devils

2. Carolina Crown

3. The Cavaliers

4. The Cadets

5. Santa Clara Vanguard

6. Phantom Regiment

7. Boston Crusaders

8. Bluecoats

9. Madison Scouts

10. Blue Stars

11. Blue Knights

12. Spirit of Atlanta

That's as close as you can get a year out!