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Live Streaming Finals


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I think the key consideration is how much revenue could they eke out of streaming finals? I don't think there've been any official numbers recently detailing how many people are streaming any particular show since 2007.

Given that they're streaming Semis and awards, and that the VODs will be up within a few days, I have to assume there's very little marginal cost to broadcasting finals beyond the bandwidth (which I'm sure is significant, but probably in the five-figure range). To get $500k in revenue, they'd need 5,000 people to pay $100 or 10,000 to pay $50. Is that possible?

I think the 2nd case (10k @ $50) is what DCI should be aiming for. The attendance numbers make clear that Finals has lost 8-10K since the move to Indy. Those are the obvious people to target with a Finals stream. The price could maybe even go a bit higher - a multicam HD Finals stream is arguably a superior product to sitting on the 20 yard line upper deck of the Oil Can, so price it accordingly.

While I personally want the Finals stream and would gladly pay whatever they ask for it, I understand DCI's fears. A lot of the economics (including the rationale for the Indy deal) would change if the live Finals audience shrank in favor of a virtual one.

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I think the 2nd case (10k @ $50) is what DCI should be aiming for. The attendance numbers make clear that Finals has lost 8-10K since the move to Indy. Those are the obvious people to target with a Finals stream. The price could maybe even go a bit higher - a multicam HD Finals stream is arguably a superior product to sitting on the 20 yard line upper deck of the Oil Can, so price it accordingly.

While I personally want the Finals stream and would gladly pay whatever they ask for it, I understand DCI's fears. A lot of the economics (including the rationale for the Indy deal) would change if the live Finals audience shrank in favor of a virtual one.

I don't remember seeing these numbers, and I remember Bloomington being packed to the gills. You're claiming that DCI has lost that many in 3 years in the can?

I'd like to see the source data before I buy your contention.

If you have the data, I'll update the attendance chart v. GDP I posted many months ago.

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I don't think the concern is about people who hardly ever go to finals.

I think the concern is that people who ARE going to finals now might be tempted not to in the future.

This may be akin to what happened with TV ratings when people started getting DVR's and shows became available online. Once upon a time, there was a thing called 'appointment television'. People would go out of their way to watch their favorite shows live. Now, scripted TV shows have more people viewing them on a time-shifted basis and "3rd screens" like computers than they do watching them live. Once people got into the habit of the shows being available to watch in other ways, people started making a habit of watching them that way. As a result, the networks have a harder time earning money from ad revenue because it's based on how many people watch the commercials. When you time-shift and watch online, you rarely see the commercials.

DCI's fear may be that making it available streaming may convince people that are currently attending Finals live to stay home. The losses in revenue aren't just about ticket sales, but program books, souvenir sales, concessions. It also doesn't send much of a message about the vitality of the activity to have empty seats at your championships.

In addition, one of the reasons Indianapolis and future championship cities will give you good deals is that those cities want tourism. Once you start making finals a "virtual" event, more and more people who otherwise might attend may be enticed to stay home.

I think that may be a legitimate concern.

Is attendance down for the regional DCI shows that are streamed live? I don't but this excuse.

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Clearly there are people that are willing to give them extra money to watch a live stream of finals, but will never attend finals live (for whatever reason). That is free money that they are leaving on the table. It makes no sense at all.

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I don't remember seeing these numbers, and I remember Bloomington being packed to the gills. You're claiming that DCI has lost that many in 3 years in the can?

I'd like to see the source data before I buy your contention.

If you have the data, I'll update the attendance chart v. GDP I posted many months ago.

Most recently, I saw this in a DCP post in the last week or so with the last 15 yrs of finals attendance. What I remember re: paid attendance

Denver: 22K

Pasadena: 24K

Indy '10: 15K

Indy '11: 17K

That basically matches what I've seen elsewhere. I'll see if I can find the DCP post...

Update: Here you go. Skywhopper posted the data

Edited by ShortAndFast
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Most recently, I saw this in a DCP post in the last week or so with the last 15 yrs of finals attendance. What I remember re: paid attendance

Denver: 22K

Pasadena: 24K

Indy '10: 15K

Indy '11: 17K

That basically matches what I've seen elsewhere. I'll see if I can find the DCP post...

Update: Here you go. Skywhopper posted the data

Thanks for the link, but you left out some important facts about the list.

First, remove Pasadena, it was an outlier for your argument.

Second, Skywhopper qualified his number as "att" v. "tix". That skews the comparison.

Third, we've also heard that "Total Season Attendance" is a more important number than finals attendance alone. SA this year was a blockbuster, so I'd think your contention's data should take into account the emphasis that DCI placed on the regional shows.

Does your contention about Live Broadcast sales expectations hold up under these conditions?

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Leaving out the question of will finals be affected, the more important number to this discussion in the data I posted that ShortAndFast linked to is, I think the QF theater broadcast numbers. To estimate the number of people who would purchase a live stream for finals, take that number (~39,000 for the last couple of years) and:

* add the number of people who would go to the QF broadcast if:

** there was a theater showing it within driving distance, or

** they lived in the US, or

** they could get away from the house for that long, or

** they didn't have to work

* subtract the number of people who have better things to do on a Saturday

* subtract the number of people turned off by the price difference

* subtract the number of people who don't have good Internet service

* subtract the number of people who are afraid of paying $50+ for some computer thing they don't know if they can even make use of

Given the interest in the QF broadcast, I think 10k buyers at $50 is reasonable. BUT I'd wager it would drive down interest in the theater broadcast somewhat. But there are lots of benefits to the theater broadcast as well, so it probably wouldn't cut into it too badly.

On the other hand, I can't imagine DCI gets more than half the ticket price, if that, from the QF broadcast, whereas as I suggested before their margins for a Finals live stream should be very high...

So I guess it just comes down to how many people would pay $50 for a Finals live stream.

Edited by skywhopper
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Thanks for the link, but you left out some important facts about the list.

First, remove Pasadena, it was an outlier for your argument.

Second, Skywhopper qualified his number as "att" v. "tix". That skews the comparison.

Third, we've also heard that "Total Season Attendance" is a more important number than finals attendance alone. SA this year was a blockbuster, so I'd think your contention's data should take into account the emphasis that DCI placed on the regional shows.

Does your contention about Live Broadcast sales expectations hold up under these conditions?

I think it's wrong to dismiss Pasadena & Denver. That fact that DCI could sell 24K/22K tickets in these location proves that there are a whole bunch of people on the west coast willing to pay for finals. If they're not willing to pay to fly to Indy, they're probably also not paying to fly to Atlanta or San Antonio. If DCI's target were 10K subscribers to a Finals stream, I suspect they could find half of them from this group of fans.

Indy is where finals is for the foreseeable future. It's a good deal for DCI financially, but it's not a great destination or a great venue to watch drum corps. The numbers show that DCI has lost a substantial part of the paid finals audience (perhaps 25%-30%) since the move. I don't think those people are coming back to Indy - certainly many on this thread have said they're not.

Today DCI gets $0 from those people for Championships. Maybe they're getting $$ for a regional, but maybe this audience was already going to regionals before Indy. I've seen no data one way or the other. But I do think DCI has an opportunity to make some lemonade from the Indy lemons: they can do high quality video products in Indy, and they can probably sell many of these former audience members a stream instead of a ticket.

Maybe I should turn the question around: you seem pretty convinced that a finals stream would be a net negative for DCI. What's convinced you?

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I think it's wrong to dismiss Pasadena & Denver. That fact that DCI could sell 24K/22K tickets in these location proves that there are a whole bunch of people on the west coast willing to pay for finals. If they're not willing to pay to fly to Indy, they're probably also not paying to fly to Atlanta or San Antonio. If DCI's target were 10K subscribers to a Finals stream, I suspect they could find half of them from this group of fans.

Indy is where finals is for the foreseeable future. It's a good deal for DCI financially, but it's not a great destination or a great venue to watch drum corps. The numbers show that DCI has lost a substantial part of the paid finals audience (perhaps 25%-30%) since the move. I don't think those people are coming back to Indy - certainly many on this thread have said they're not.

Today DCI gets $0 from those people for Championships. Maybe they're getting $ for a regional, but maybe this audience was already going to regionals before Indy. I've seen no data one way or the other. But I do think DCI has an opportunity to make some lemonade from the Indy lemons: they can do high quality video products in Indy, and they can probably sell many of these former audience members a stream instead of a ticket.

Maybe I should turn the question around: you seem pretty convinced that a finals stream would be a net negative for DCI. What's convinced you?

No, don't misread my questions. I'm not convinced of anything.

I'm a data-checker. I like to know the source material that back up contentions.

I surely do think DCI should offer live-feeds, and charge full price - $125 - for finals. I'm not convinced that DCI has the funds to both produce high-quality DVD productions and pay for live-feed bandwidth at the same time.

Just so long as they don't canibalize the DVD production in the process because I'm a collector of shows and buy the DVD's for the ability to watch a favorite old show at my leisure.

I'll always go to finals, too.

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