wonderbread403 Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 In 2013, the Troopers missed making finals by .15 point. This past Wednesday was DCI’s Opening Night and the Troopers scored a 61.7. Is this enough to break into the final top 12, something they haven’t done since 2009? I did a basic statistical analysis (something I’m learning more about this summer) and found out that since 2003, corps that made 12th place at semifinals had a wide range of “first show scores.” I charted these 12th place corps, their semifinal scores, and their first show scores. The lowest first show score was a 60.9 by 2007 Spirit and the highest was 70.3 by the 2010 Glassmen. That’s a wide range. Let’s assume the 2010 Glassmen score was an outlier, 62-63 points seem to be the ballpark score to be in top 12 contention. In fact, the average first show score for these 12th place corps (excluding the 2010 Glassmen) is 63.67. This is not to say that this year is going to be the same. A lot can happen from now to championship week. Looking at 12th place semifinal scores since 2003, the magic semifinal number seems to be around 85-86 to make it to finals (average is 85.89). But remember, hundredths of a point can mean the difference between 12th and 13th. How much corps improve from the first show to make it to 12th place matters a lot and how much corps improve is not consistent, nor predictable from year to year. Like the stock market, past performance doesn’t necessarily predict future performance. What does this mean for other corps hoping to make 12th place, like Crossmen, Colts, and Pacific Crest, and Academy? Since 2003, no corps who scored under 60 at their first show has made it to finals. So the Troopers can breath a sigh of relief. Given that most of these first show scores are based on shows on or around June 20th and the Troopers scored 61.7 on June 18, we’ll need to see how the Troopers do on Friday night at Rockford to give us a (somewhat) clearer sense. The closer they score a 63.67, the better their chances to be in top 12 contention. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotorCityMusician Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 Can they? its possible. my opinion will they? no Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrumManTx Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 I need to see Colts, Crossmen, Spirit, Blue Stars, and Pacific Crest first to even begin to answer that question. Show is promising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllianaLancerContra Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 If Troopers move in, then someone has to move out. Do the tie-breaking rules come into play if there is a tie for 12th, or are they only for determining a champion? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soccerguy315 Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 In 2013, the Troopers missed making finals by .15 point. This past Wednesday was DCI’s Opening Night and the Troopers scored a 61.7. Is this enough to break into the final top 12...? I can say confidently that a 61.7 will not be enough to make finals. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarchandPlay Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 (edited) It's all about spreads to the corps around them in competition. Scores from first shows do not even matter in the end of the season, so it would just be pointless to say that if they don't get a certain score they will get __th place. They CAN make finals. WILL they? No way to tell until semifinals. It's seeming like one very competitive year already and we have only seen 5 corps at an actual show. Exciting to say the least. Edited June 20, 2014 by MarchandPlay 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisterA Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 If Troopers move in, then someone has to move out. Do the tie-breaking rules come into play if there is a tie for 12th, or are they only for determining a champion? I don't believe they even have a tie breaker for the championship anymore. Didn't they remove that, and say if two corps are tied, they both earn the title as co-champions? I think Troopers are looking better than any other year in the last 25 for this early in the season. I would say they have an outside chance of making finals this year. But I think it is going to be extremely tough. Spirit and Blue Stars who were in the last two spots last year, are going to be tough to beat. And then with Crossmen, Colts, Academy, and Pacific Crest all being extremely strong the last few years as well, it is going to be a very tight race for that 12th spot. Can they make it? Possibly. They have one of their strongest shows I have seen since they made finals in the 80s. But from the previews I have been hearing/seeing/hearing about, I think there are 2 or 3 other corps that will be fighting it out with them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ranintothedoor Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 I don't know, but MAN did I love their show on FN! Troopers may be one of my favorites this year! We'll see... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flammaster Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 No I do not think they will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.E. Brigand Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 Yes, it was revealed following the 2012 Finals (I think) that at some point in the previous few years, George Hopkins had proposed a rules change at a meeting eliminating the tie-breaker provisions--but my impression was that this change had not been publicized and caught everyone off guard; it came up in the context of trying to sort out a confusing caption tie between BD and Crown that year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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