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DCI 2015 Predictions Using Machine Learning


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Wow. That's impressive.

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I've heard it my entire career:

"Past performance is not indicative of future returns"

It is interesting that your predicted results are close, but I wonder if your placement results could have been as accurately predicted by "random walk" analysis.

Fun exercise. Nice work, but I think you lost most readers after the first paragraph. :shutup:

And, as much as I love PR, I'll be disappointed if they are the "surge" corps that knocks BK down a notch.

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I thought it would be a fun application of machine learning to try to predict the final rankings

for this year's DCI World Championships. I started out by building 4 models to predict the

final scores based on scores at 21 days or before finals, and then combining the results

of those 4 models into one predictor for final rankings. So, here are the results of my analysis:

http://davidalyea.com/dci/2015/

Now it's time to wait and see how these predictions turn out, enjoying the shows in Indianapolis next week!

Great job and analysis! Thanks!

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Fun exercise. Nice work, but I think you lost most readers after the first paragraph. :shutup:

I was lost when I read the words "Modeling Setup."

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Nice analysis! I have recently starting to look into modeling, so, while I did not grasp a lot of your discussion, I followed some and found it quite interesting. I have saved it to Evernote so I can refer to later as I learn more! Thanks for posting! (And I hope your model is wrong and that the Devs get 17!! #SpillSomeInk ;) )

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I noticed this the first time I saw it, but aren't the corps Predicted placement v. Rank flip flopped, for 2015?

In a judged activity where cleanliness is not the only factor for scoring, I'm not sure about the results.

Done quite a bit of math in my day, kind of skeptical on some of these fronts but cool analysis on stuff I had always wished I had tried to put together.

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