Popular Post dalyea Posted July 30, 2015 Popular Post Share Posted July 30, 2015 I thought it would be a fun application of machine learning to try to predict the final rankings for this year's DCI World Championships. I started out by building 4 models to predict the final scores based on scores at 21 days or before finals, and then combining the results of those 4 models into one predictor for final rankings. So, here are the results of my analysis: http://davidalyea.com/dci/2015/ Now it's time to wait and see how these predictions turn out, enjoying the shows in Indianapolis next week! 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yogitom Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Wow. That's impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garfield Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 I've heard it my entire career: "Past performance is not indicative of future returns" It is interesting that your predicted results are close, but I wonder if your placement results could have been as accurately predicted by "random walk" analysis. Fun exercise. Nice work, but I think you lost most readers after the first paragraph. And, as much as I love PR, I'll be disappointed if they are the "surge" corps that knocks BK down a notch. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrownBariDad Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 I thought it would be a fun application of machine learning to try to predict the final rankings for this year's DCI World Championships. I started out by building 4 models to predict the final scores based on scores at 21 days or before finals, and then combining the results of those 4 models into one predictor for final rankings. So, here are the results of my analysis: http://davidalyea.com/dci/2015/ Now it's time to wait and see how these predictions turn out, enjoying the shows in Indianapolis next week! Great job and analysis! Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueStainGlass Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 What we have learned in 2015. You can't predict ####. A lot of groups are closing in on cavies and the top 3 are rotating regularly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurassic Lancer Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Fun exercise. Nice work, but I think you lost most readers after the first paragraph. I was lost when I read the words "Modeling Setup." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FinanceBuzz Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Nice analysis! I have recently starting to look into modeling, so, while I did not grasp a lot of your discussion, I followed some and found it quite interesting. I have saved it to Evernote so I can refer to later as I learn more! Thanks for posting! (And I hope your model is wrong and that the Devs get 17!! #SpillSomeInk ;) ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris ncsu Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Innnteresting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Windish Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 This guy, David, has quite the professional resume! Take heed, friends. Besides, notice the omen of his final 3 letters? (and thanks, dalyea) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littlejaw Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 I noticed this the first time I saw it, but aren't the corps Predicted placement v. Rank flip flopped, for 2015? In a judged activity where cleanliness is not the only factor for scoring, I'm not sure about the results. Done quite a bit of math in my day, kind of skeptical on some of these fronts but cool analysis on stuff I had always wished I had tried to put together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.