kdaddy Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 A couple of folks have tried to do this in the past (I very simplistically tried neural nets a decade ago), and this is easily the most comprehensive modeling job in terms of the choice of variables and the ensemble approach. I couldn't tell from the output - were the estimated coefficients for regression and GBM interesting (I don't know anything about GBM, but I assume the output is similar to GLM)? Did they give any insights on what "show" is the most influential on the finals week outcome? I guess at 21 days out, that'd be a difficult thing to nail down, though I suspect regional performance matters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lastknight Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Bad news for Boston. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daave Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 These are cool. My prediction (although not as thorough as this) is that Phantom will jump Madison and BS by semis, cementing the ever changing (insert eye roll here) top eight; and BAC will remain in the top 12. This will leave Academy, Colts and Troopers on the outside... again. They will get the old chuck on the shoulder and tussle of the hair like Andy would give Opie along with the Ohhhhhhh, so close speech. What did Daave use as his predictors? The judging community and the #cuzzitsalwaysbeenthatwayandthingsrarelychange model. If I had more coffee, I might find one of those meme thingy's of Captain Picard saying "Make it so" Now... more coffee for the curmudgeon!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chaddyt Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRASSO Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 (edited) Bad news for Boston. Yup. This is what the machine says. It could be right.( or wrong ). My bet is not on this machine however, but instead on the living, breathing, motivations, determination, heart of the young Men & Women in the the Big Red & Black that wear these Corps colors. Not sure any machine has the quantitative & qualitative methodology to properly factor that in. But who knows, I suppose we'll learn soon enough in the Cinemas in the Semi's next week ! Edited July 30, 2015 by BRASSO 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurassic Lancer Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 I wonder what Nate Silver would say. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRASSO Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 I wonder what Nate Silver would say. That the Trumpetts D & B Corps won't be performing on the White House lawn anytime soon ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cappybara Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 I've heard it my entire career: "Past performance is not indicative of future returns" It is interesting that your predicted results are close, but I wonder if your placement results could have been as accurately predicted by "random walk" analysis. Fun exercise. Nice work, but I think you lost most readers after the first paragraph. And, as much as I love PR, I'll be disappointed if they are the "surge" corps that knocks BK down a notch. I'm a PR fan and I'd honestly be disappointed if that happened too. I can see it happening though, PR is good at surging at the very last minute of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
777hornman Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 CADETS are done , Was just a matter of time till other corps matched their cleanliness. Middle of that show is terrible and slow. Colts will not beat BOSTON , no brass , Bad guard , Bad show . I look for Troopers and ACADEMY to beat COLTS. CROWN BD --- Cadets BC SCV ----- BK ---- Cavies Phantom Madison -------- Crossmen Blue Stars Boston ------- Troopers Academy Colts ------ Spirit Mandarins Oregon ----- PC Cascades Surf Pioneer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littlejaw Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 CADETS are done , Was just a matter of time till other corps matched their cleanliness. Middle of that show is terrible and slow. Colts will not beat BOSTON , no brass , Bad guard , Bad show . I look for Troopers and ACADEMY to beat COLTS. CROWN BD --- Cadets BC SCV ----- BK ---- Cavies Phantom Madison -------- Crossmen Blue Stars Boston ------- Troopers Academy Colts ------ Spirit Mandarins Oregon ----- PC Cascades Surf Pioneer Let's be realistic, Colts are over Troopers, Crossmen are 12 and Blue Stars are 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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