Crown as X factor

[Jeff Ream]

Odds are against it, though - house money says the general groups will remain the same, even if they shift within.

Mike

I would normally agree with you all the way Mike. But we have something this year that has been building for a few years now, and I think it could rear it's head in a good way.

the talent and design is better top to bottom than ever. shows that are 16th now could have been 8th 10 years ago. with right amount of planning, pacing and cleaning, someone could make a large jump somewhere. With more and more corps waiting til late July/early August to throw in endings, major changes and effects, it's possible that a corpscould catch fire at the right time.

I think back to Phantom 08..started the year middle of the pack, and I think back to Boston in 2000...they were 8th a week before finals.

[OICMR corps]

I think back to Phantom 08..started the year middle of the pack

???? Your definition of middle of the pack is WAY different than mine. They placed lower than 3rd in one show (San Antonio) all year.

[MikeN]

I disagree on this point - two examples does not a trend make. And Phantom is kind of an X factor (hah!) in that they pulled off the most improbable upset in DCI championship history.

But look at last year - San Antonio Regional. I've broken up the "pods" as I see them.

1 Blue Devils 91.400

2 The Cavaliers 89.750

3 Holy Name Cadets 89.550

4 Carolina Crown 89.150

5 Santa Clara Vanguard 87.800

6 Bluecoats 86.500

7 Blue Stars 84.650

8 Phantom Regiment 84.250

9 Boston Crusaders 84.200

10 Glassmen 82.200

11 Blue Knights 81.800

12 Troopers 79.600

13 Colts 79.100

14 Madison Scouts 77.100

15 Crossmen 76.300

16 The Academy 75.900

17 Spirit 75.150

18 Pacific Crest 73.050

19 Mandarins 72.750

20 Pioneer 69.800

21 Cascades 68.100

Here's how championship pods ended up, again as I see them.

1 Blue Devils 99.050

2 Carolina Crown 97.500

3 Holy Name Cadets 97.200

4 The Cavaliers 96.150

5 Santa Clara Vanguard 95.650

6 Bluecoats 93.150

7 Boston Crusaders 90.700

8 Blue Stars 90.050

9 Phantom Regiment 89.900

10 Glassmen 87.750

11 Blue Knights 86.450

12 Troopers 85.100

13 Colts 85.600

14 The Academy 83.750

15 Madison Scouts 82.400

16 Crossmen 81.650

17 Spirit 80.450

18 Mandarins 79.650

19 Pacific Crest 79.050

20 Jersey Surf 78.550

21 Pioneer 75.750

22 Cascades 74.950

Really, I think only Cavies falling back to SCV's general vicinity (or SCV coming up to meet them) and distancing themselves from Bluecoats was the only real movement outside of the established groups.

Again, I'm not discounting that significant movement *can* happen; I'm just saying it's a rarity when it does. So the regional this weekend is tremendously important in sorting out who will be where.

Mike

[Jeff Ream]

i agree last year does prove you right. but something this year tells me it may be a little different. maybe it's misplaced hope

[crown fan]

I think the real wild card is the Cavaliers. They had a rough start, but you can see from the Kalamazoo video that their show is really coming together. I see them anywhere from 5th to 1st depending how things continue to develop.

I am not a Cavaliers fan - never have been really, but I agree that the potential is here to pull out a medal. I love the music. Do they sing? Someone can tell me I only saw it on VOD, and is there a synth playing strings? or something? Anyway - I thought the music was beautiful. The song "Mad World" is one of my all time favorites. I have read many comments on this site where people "just don't get it", but I did and totally enjoyed it.

Drill. Love, Love, Love all the drill moves; again only saw the VOD, but what beautiful pictures they were making on the field. I think if they can clean the drill they will be a force to contend with.

Still a CC Honk, just for the record.

[MikeN]

I have read many comments on this site where people "just don't get it", but I did and totally enjoyed it.

They put out a video explaining it. I get it now.

Mike

[bluecoats88]

well based on what I've seen in the scores and the spreads this is what it looks like will happen on Saturday.

1 - BD 91.2

2 - Cadets 88.7

3 - Crown 88.3

4 - Bluecoats 88.1

5 - Cavaliers 87.5

6 - SCV 85.4

7 - PR 85.3

8 - Blue Knights 84.2

9 - Boston 83.2

10 - Blue Stars 82.5

11 - Madison 80.3

12 - Glassmen 79.4

13 - Colts 77.0

14 - Troopers 76.3

15 - Spirit 74.7

16 - Crossmen 74.0

17 - Teal Sound 71.1

18 - Pioneer 70.5

[gellio]

I believe only corps that have shows that can compete with Crown are BD, Cadets, Cavies, Bluecoats and SCV. I do not see SCV beating anyone forementioned. They are just too far behind. That's what happens when it's mid-July and your show isn't done. Everyone else is cleaning and adding touches, while they are learning. You'd think the powers that be at Vanguard would know that if you give BD an inch, they take a mile. As far as Phantom goes, I see them solidly in 7th. They have a great percussion line, but the guard definitely offsets that. The music is beautiful, but the visual aspects of the show still leave something to be desired. It's not well designed IMO and is demand for the sake of demand. I will be stunned if Phantom finishes higher than 6th.

Phantom in '08 hardly started in the middle of the pack, and the win wasn't as shocking to me as it was to others. It was the best show on the field that year, in terms of design and execution. I was very happy they won. It was an amazing show.

I think surprises we are more likely to see are Blue Knights possibly beating Boston, Blue Stars, Vanguard and Phantom at finals, or Madison beating Boston or Blue Stars (or both).

Edited July 13, 2010 by gellio

[mobrien]

I disagree on this point - two examples does not a trend make. And Phantom is kind of an X factor (hah!) in that they pulled off the most improbable upset in DCI championship history.

I think that title goes to Anaheim in '72. 3rd place in prelims, 3.2 points behind the leader, and they still took it all at Finals.

I'd agree that Crown could be anywhere in that mix, but judges have a tendency to be very conservative, and if they thought Crown was among the best corps in June and early July, they're not going to readily shake that belief come August. I'd think they're a lock for Top 4.

For my money, Cavaliers really are the dark horse here. The show is clean enough now so you can see how dirty it still is. A new, bigger ending will be part of the package down the road, the drumline is kicking into gear, and the show is connecting with audiences as well or better than anything else on the field this year. Can it win? Who knows, but I can see it nudging a few other shows out of its way toward the top.

Edited July 13, 2010 by mobrien

[Cardman]

Crown will likely place second this year, but I'm hoping they can pull off a title win.