Eating a LARGE slice of Humble Pie

[saxfreq1128]

Um...the odds are against them to what? three-peat?...well, they don't have to win "three in a row", at this

point they only have to win "one" in a row (they've already bagged the first two).

In my opinion, the odds are very much IN their favor to win in 2011. And anyone who bets against them has

not been watching the past four years.

Cali.

That kind of ignores probability, though. Historically, your chances of winning again (in a row) seem to decrease with each successive win. And the BD have never three-peated before, so I'm not entirely sure where you're coming from. It would be awesome, of course, but let's not make it sound so easy. It's not like they're James Logan.

Either way, doesn't matter: I'm not betting for or against, because I'll be a fan either way. For the record, though, I have been watching for the last 4 years, and considering how hungry at least 4 other corps are going to be, I'd encourage you to bet small.

Edited August 16, 2010 by saxfreq1128

[Calistar]

That kind of ignores probability, though. Historically, your chances of winning again (in a row) seem to decrease with each successive win. And the BD have never three-peated before, so I'm not entirely sure where you're coming from. It would be awesome, of course, but let's not make it sound so easy. It's not like they're James Logan.

Either way, doesn't matter: I'm not betting for or against, because I'll be a fan either way. For the record, though, I have been watching for the last 4 years, and considering how hungry at least 4 other corps are going to be, I'd encourage you to bet small.

The probability does not decrease with each successive win. Actually, if anything the odds get even better for BD as with every championship they win, they draw even greater talent to Concord who hope to win a ring. Plus their Corps know HOW to win championships...how many current corps members out there have experience with winning championships? Aside from Phantom '08ers, and few stragglers here and there...not many.

The Blue Devils have a phenominal staff...they have amazing talent...they know what the judges are looking for...they have the FORMULA for success.

Let me put it this way...if we were to handicap the corps (like in Sports betting) what would the odds be for Pioneer to win the Championship? And then how about Academy? (their fans would say "pretty good" )...now how about the Cadets?...what maybe 8-1?....now what about Blue Devils?....based on the past performances they would probably be 1-1 or...1-3...something in that neighborhood.

Until someone proves that they can beat BD consistantly, BD will always be the preseason favorite. Your original post said that the odds were against them, which is incorrect.

And IF I was going to bet on a Corps to win it all in 2011, it would be the Blue Devils and it would be a big bet...and I'd love to find someone to bet against them. Yup, that would be sweet (not really looking for a bet, just saying...).

Cali.

[JamMan]

09, actually....but for the smallest victory spread in drum corps history in 08, BD would've had a FOUR-peat last night.

Actually, it's TIED for the smallest victory spread: http://www.drumcorpsplanet.com/component/o...pper/Itemid,37/

"crown"? Do I detect a prophecy there, involving the MOST rapidly advancing Corps currently? Well, I hope my observation doesn't appear too cavalier.

I see what you did there. Can we consider Crown advancing? They just dropped 3 places in one year. I'd say Troopers were advancing more rapidly than them.

[ajwdad]

The probability does not decrease with each successive win. Actually, if anything the odds get even better for BD as with every championship they win, they draw even greater talent to Concord who hope to win a ring. Plus their Corps know HOW to win championships...how many current corps members out there have experience with winning championships? Aside from Phantom '08ers, and few stragglers here and there...not many.

The Blue Devils have a phenominal staff...they have amazing talent...they know what the judges are looking for...they have the FORMULA for success.

Let me put it this way...if we were to handicap the corps (like in Sports betting) what would the odds be for Pioneer to win the Championship? And then how about Academy? (their fans would say "pretty good" )...now how about the Cadets?...what maybe 8-1?....now what about Blue Devils?....based on the past performances they would probably be 1-1 or...1-3...something in that neighborhood.

Until someone proves that they can beat BD consistantly, BD will always be the preseason favorite. Your original post said that the odds were against them, which is incorrect.

And IF I was going to bet on a Corps to win it all in 2011, it would be the Blue Devils and it would be a big bet...and I'd love to find someone to bet against them. Yup, that would be sweet (not really looking for a bet, just saying...).

Cali.

Cali,

that would indeed be sweet to see another BD win next year. But, I am tempted to take a small bet with you just because if they don't win, then maybe I won't feel so bad. I guess the other question has to do with ageouts.... and how recruiting goes as you mention earlier. And I am always concerned about the Cavies.

For the original topic, thanks to the poster for such a classy tribute.

[AmFlag61]

Also on another note: OT

Mr. AmFlag61

Are you the gentleman I ran into in the Grand Hotel Lobby in Peoria a few weeks back while I was there visiting my "inlaws"?

Sorry, no. Haven't been in Peoria in years. But...

I will be appearing with the Classic Cavaliers at the All Drum Corps Picnic, August 21st at Barrington, IL. Lots of info & maps on Facebook (check out White Tornadoes or Momence FB site) 3 of my '61 Cavaliers brothers are coming from California just for this picnic, which now looks to have 400 to 500 attendees from all across the Country. Should be 1 heck of a get-together! I invite you and anyone else reading to drop by if you're in the neighborhood.

John L. Opager Jr.

'49-'52 Logan Square SAL Waterboy

'59-'63 Chicago Cavaliers Color Guard

'64 Men Of Brass Drum Major

'08 Honorary Holy Name Cadets Alumnus

'09-'10 Classic Cavaliers Color Guard

[Joe Salvatore]

The probability does not decrease with each successive win. Actually, if anything the odds get even better for BD as with every championship they win, they draw even greater talent to Concord who hope to win a ring. Plus their Corps know HOW to win championships...how many current corps members out there have experience with winning championships? Aside from Phantom '08ers, and few stragglers here and there...not many.

The Blue Devils have a phenominal staff...they have amazing talent...they know what the judges are looking for...they have the FORMULA for success.

Let me put it this way...if we were to handicap the corps (like in Sports betting) what would the odds be for Pioneer to win the Championship? And then how about Academy? (their fans would say "pretty good" )...now how about the Cadets?...what maybe 8-1?....now what about Blue Devils?....based on the past performances they would probably be 1-1 or...1-3...something in that neighborhood.

Until someone proves that they can beat BD consistantly, BD will always be the preseason favorite. Your original post said that the odds were against them, which is incorrect.

And IF I was going to bet on a Corps to win it all in 2011, it would be the Blue Devils and it would be a big bet...and I'd love to find someone to bet against them. Yup, that would be sweet (not really looking for a bet, just saying...).

Cali.

I understand what you're saying, Cali, but but...

The probability is statistically unaffected by past events. It does not increase nor decrease. Additionally, it is the same for all corps.

We have many past champions that can tell you how quickly things can and do turn from hero to zero for a corps.

BD is not immune to this and has in fact had many "drought" years in the past.

I would like to congratulate the Blue Devils staff, BOD, members, volunteers, and fans.

Best of luck in the future.

[BCC99Man]

BD is not immune to this and has in fact had many "drought" years in the past.

Since they won their first title in 1976, here are their "droughts":

1978 = 1 year

1981 = 1 year

1983-1985 = 3 years

1987-1993 = 7 years

1995 = 1 year

1998 = 1 year

2000-2002 = 3 years

2004-2006 = 3 years

2008 = 1 year

Mathematically, BD wins on average every 2.5 years since 1976. Their longest "drought" is 7 years. How many corps can say that? Until a corps comes within 3 total rings of the Blue Devils, they should always be the favorites to win

[84BDsop]

1983-1985 = 3 years

WWWAAAAAAHHHHH!!!!

What's a bummer, looking back, is that at one point during the rehearsal season, Mike Moxley told us BD had never gone more than 2 years without winning...he JINXED us!! :thumbup:

[Tank]

"crown"? Do I detect a prophecy there, involving the MOST rapidly advancing Corps currently? Well, I hope my observation doesn't appear too cavalier.

Speaking from the Carolinas, if Crown doesn't win, there will be many people feeling blue. Coats or ponchos will be needed to avoid being soaked by the tears.

Edited August 16, 2010 by Tank