so - are Cadets and SCV REALLY in it?

[oldschooldbc]

I already have my snide, cynical, sarcastic remarks lined up for Saturday night, for when BD wins. I have them cocked, locked, and ready to rock. Here is a sampling (I will have more ready by Saturday):

"I really hate being right all the time."

"Ho hum, tell me a real news story."

"The sun rises in the east, sets in the west, and BD puts another trophy in the case."

"That is the sound of inevitability. That is the sound of your death. Goodbye, Carolina Crown." (That is the reference to The Matrix.)

"Whoever uses the most props in their show always wins."

And if BD loses, i will be the most shocked person since Julius and Ethel Rosenberg.

[gbass598]

I think Cadets have a chance. They traditionally have shown that they can peak at the right time. Judging by last night's score, it might be coming.

SCV is good but don't see them in the same league design wise as the others. I would love to see the Cadets come out and blow the doors off the place. I feel their show is the most complete package in design and pure talent across all sections.

[skywhopper]

One factor that might play into things is the 20.0 limit/milestone. BD has in several recent Finals recorded 20.0s in Visual GE, Visual Analysis, and Color Guard, sometimes with bigger-than-normal margins over whoever the second place contender was that year, as if those judges were just saying, "I give up, this is the greatest thing ever, I'm not going to try to figure this out... 20!". This effect is why their Finals spread over Crown in 2012 grew by quite a bit over their Semis spread.

But, the judges are free to give out those 20s only because BD was the last corps performing. So, this year BD is again winning VA and Visual GE most of the time, and sometimes taking Guard and VP. And Crown is stronger in the music captions, excepting Percussion. If Crown manages to squeak into 1st place at Semis, then they'll go on last on Finals night, in which case, the visual judges won't be able to give BD 20s (at least, not if they are being fair). Right away, you cut potentially 0.2 off of BD's score, 0.25 if they get 20s in all visual categories, which is enough to make a difference this season by itself. But furthermore for Crown, the brass, MA, Music GE, and guard judges might well max out the sheet and give Crown 20s in those captions (certainly Brass is already within striking distance after their 19.6 last night). So that could add another 0.25 potentially for a total of a potential 0.5 swing *just because* of performance order.

Just a thought. I don't think any of the four are out of contention, though. I'd prefer SCV to win, myself, but I think that's the least likely outcome.

Edited August 7, 2013 by skywhopper

[Jeff Ream]

honestly, if anything moves it'll be between BD and Crown, and then SCV and Cadets.

[ShortAndFast]

One factor that might play into things is the 20.0 limit/milestone. BD has in several recent Finals recorded 20.0s in Visual GE, Visual Analysis, and Color Guard, sometimes with bigger-than-normal margins over whoever the second place contender was that year, as if those judges were just saying, "I give up, this is the greatest thing ever, I'm not going to try to figure this out... 20!". This effect is why their Finals spread over Crown in 2012 grew by quite a bit over their Semis spread.

But, the judges are free to give out those 20s only because BD was the last corps performing. So, this year BD is again winning VA and Visual GE most of the time, and sometimes taking Guard and VP. And Crown is stronger in the music captions, excepting Percussion. If Crown manages to squeak into 1st place at Semis, then they'll go on last on Finals night, in which case, the visual judges won't be able to give BD 20s (at least, not if they are being fair). Right away, you cut potentially 0.2 off of BD's score, 0.25 if they get 20s in all visual categories, which is enough to make a difference this season by itself. But furthermore for Crown, the brass, MA, Music GE, and guard judges might well max out the sheet and give Crown 20s in those captions (certainly Brass is already within striking distance after their 19.6 last night). So that could add another 0.25 potentially for a total of a potential 0.5 swing *just because* of performance order.

Just a thought. I don't think any of the four are out of contention, though. I'd prefer SCV to win, myself, but I think that's the least likely outcome.

If Crown gets to go last either Friday or Saturday, I agree that a 20.0 Brass score is a strong possibility. That'd be pretty awesome to see.

Another outcome, just barely possible, is for Crown to win 7 of 8 captions and still lose. They've beaten BD in every caption other than percussion at least once since Murfreesboro.

[loopin' froot loops]

One factor that might play into things is the 20.0 limit/milestone. BD has in several recent Finals recorded 20.0s in Visual GE, Visual Analysis, and Color Guard, sometimes with bigger-than-normal margins over whoever the second place contender was that year, as if those judges were just saying, "I give up, this is the greatest thing ever, I'm not going to try to figure this out... 20!". This effect is why their Finals spread over Crown in 2012 grew by quite a bit over their Semis spread.

But, the judges are free to give out those 20s only because BD was the last corps performing. So, this year BD is again winning VA and Visual GE most of the time, and sometimes taking Guard and VP. And Crown is stronger in the music captions, excepting Percussion. If Crown manages to squeak into 1st place at Semis, then they'll go on last on Finals night, in which case, the visual judges won't be able to give BD 20s (at least, not if they are being fair). Right away, you cut potentially 0.2 off of BD's score, 0.25 if they get 20s in all visual categories, which is enough to make a difference this season by itself. But furthermore for Crown, the brass, MA, Music GE, and guard judges might well max out the sheet and give Crown 20s in those captions (certainly Brass is already within striking distance after their 19.6 last night). So that could add another 0.25 potentially for a total of a potential 0.5 swing *just because* of performance order.

Just a thought. I don't think any of the four are out of contention, though. I'd prefer SCV to win, myself, but I think that's the least likely outcome.

In 2004 Quarterfinals, didn't BD go on in the #2 slot? If so, then there's no reason why just because you don't play last doesn't mean you can't get a 20.

[ShortAndFast]

In 2004 Quarterfinals, didn't BD go on in the #2 slot? If so, then there's no reason why just because you don't play last doesn't mean you can't get a 20.

BD was seeded 1st in 2004

[loopin' froot loops]

BD was seeded 1st in 2004

Well, thank you for clearing that up! I recant my rationale, but I still think it'd be plausible to give a few corps the full 10/20 in the Achievement sub-box if they earned it.

Edited August 7, 2013 by loopin' froot loops

[ShortAndFast]

Well, thank you for clearing that up! I recant my rationale, but I still think it'd be plausible to give a few corps the full 10/20 in the Achievement sub-box if they earned it.

I think you could get a 20.0 performing earlier in the show, but the judge is going to have to be pretty darn confident there's nobody better still to come.

Example: you're judging percussion at finals this year, performance order is SCV > Cadets > BD > Crown after semis. You've judged a regional and a TOC show earlier in the year, so you're pretty sure that BD, Cadets and SCV are the top lines.

SCV performs, you score 19.6.

Cadets perform & they were better. You score 19.8, leaving room for BD on either side.

BD perform and they are awesome. Significantly better than Cadets. Do you write 19.9 (giving them less spread than they earned) or 20.0 (betting that Crown will not surpass what you just heard)? I'd bet a lot of drum judges would go for the 20.0.

[skywhopper]

Well, thank you for clearing that up! I recant my rationale, but I still think it'd be plausible to give a few corps the full 10/20 in the Achievement sub-box if they earned it.

I don't think a judge can fairly say they earned a 20 until they've seen the other corps perform. What do you do if the next corps does better? This gets into the discussion about numbers management. Judges have to leave room for the remaining corps when choosing what score to give. Giving the third-to-last corps a 20 means you are pre-judging the final two corps. If you are in a situation as a judge where the 4th to last corps scored 19.9 and third-to-last corps was better, you already screwed up your numbers. This is why the lower half of the corps at any given Finals Week show will score lower than they scored the last time they performed, and it's why no more than 7-8 corps can possibly get 90 on Finals night. Judges start the first corps on at a lower point to leave plenty of room for the upcoming corps to surprise them.