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2017 vs. 2016 - Daily Year Over Year Comparisons


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Thank you for the positive feedback and comments of appreciation. It's a labor of love that helps me feel more connected to the season. This year, I was able to attend six live events (Massillon, OH; Michigan City, IN; Pasadena, CA; Chester, PA; Allentown, PA x2), both movie theater broadcasts, and I have the season-long FloMarching subscription so I guess my fandom is pretty intense. Doing this helps with perspective and looking up the historical information is a lot of fun. I feel like it adds to the depth of enjoyment for me and, I'm glad to hear, for some of you as well.

I'll be back with 3 more posts!

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August 10, 2017 vs. August 11, 2016

2017

Genesis put up the only 2+ score increase (2.425). The most anticipated aspect of World Class Prelims is seeing where the Open Class corps stack up. Vanguard Cadets moved up to the #16 spot overall with Blue Devils B at #18, Legends at #22, Music City at #24 and Spartans closing out the Semifinals qualifiers at #25. That means that 3 World Class corps did not make it to Friday's competition: Seattle Cascades (#26), Jersey Surf (#27), and Pioneer (#33).

Seattle Cascades, #26, missed Semifinals by only 0.225 points.

Colts defeated The Academy for the first time in 7 meetings this season. This is quite a turn as just 3 days earlier The Academy led by 1.375 points in head-to-head competition.

Blue Stars beat Crossmen for the first time since July 15. Blue Stars now lead the season series 8 to 5.

Season-ending tidbits:

  • In its second year of DCI world championships competition, Louisiana Stars improved 3 places to #28.
  • Southwind returned to DCI championships competition for the first time since 2007, finishing at #31.
  • At #33, Pioneer had its lowest finish since joining the World Class ranks in 1993.

2016

Seattle Cascades (4.088), Phantom Regiment (3.400), Pacific Crest (3.225), and Blue Knights (3.075) all put up 3+ point increases while Colt Cadets (-3.900), Shadow (-2.875), 7th Regiment (-2.463), and Les Stentors (-2.025) all saw decreases of 3+ points.

Santa Clara Vanguard reclaimed the #5 spot over The Cadets. 

Madison Scouts hold the lead over Boston Crusaders for the last finalist spot by a 0.788 margin.

On the Open Class front, 5 corps qualified to move on to World Class Semifinals: Blue Devils B (#15), Vanguard Cadets (#20), Legends (#23), Genesis (#24), and Spartans (#25). Two World Class corps did not qualify: Jersey Surf (#26) and Pioneer (#29).

Comparison

Compared to 2016, scores at Prelims were very stable this year with only 3 corps seeing a score swing of more than 2 points. Last year, there were 16 corps in this category.

The fight for gold felt really close last year with 3 corps battling it out and that is the case this year as well. In fact, Santa Clara Vanguard is closer to Blue Devils (0.362) than Blue Devils were to Bluecoats (0.625). Carolina Crown is just about the same distance back as it was last year (0.999 in '17; 0.962 in '16). 

Just for fun, let's apply last year's Semifinals trends to this year. The corps that improved the most in score from Thursday to Friday was Blue Knights, with a 0.700 point increase. If we assume for argument's sake that that is the most anyone will improve tonight, let's play out some possible scenarios of corps that are within striking distance of movement.

  • Santa Clara Vanguard could move to #1 (which would move Blue Devils to #2).
  • Carolina Crown could move to #2 (which would move Santa Clara Vanguard to #3).
  • The Cavaliers could move to #4 (which would move Bluecoats to #5).
  • Crossmen could move to #10 (which would move Blue Stars to #11).
  • The Academy could move to #14 (which would move Colts to #15).
  • Troopers could move to #16 (which would move Vanguard Cadets to #17).
  • Spirit of Atlanta could move to #18 (which would move Blue Devils B to #19).
  • Genesis could move to #22 (which would move Legends to #23).
  • Spartans could move to #24 (which would move Music City to #25).

For even more fun, let's go back to Semifinals in 2015. The corps that improved the most from Thursday to Friday was Blue Devils, without a penalty, was Vanguard Cadets, with a 0.925 point increase. If we assume that increase, here are some additional possibilities:

  • Boston Crusaders could move into a tie for #5 with The Cavaliers.
  • Blue Stars could move to #9 (which would move Phantom Regiment to #10).
  • Colts could move to #13 (which would move Mandarins to #14).
  • Blue Devils B could move to #17 (which would move Troopers to #18).
  • Pacific Crest could move to #20 (which would move Oregon Crusaders to #21).

So if we combine all of these considerations (and ignore the possibility of scores going down and a million other variables), here is a predicted range of finish:

Blue Devils: 1-2
Santa Clara Vanguard: 1-3
Carolina Crown: 2-3
Bluecoats: 4-5
The Cavaliers: 4-5
Boston Crusaders: 6
The Cadets: 7
Blue Knights: 8
Phantom Regiment: 9-10
Blue Stars: 9-11
Crossmen: 10-11
Madison Scouts: 12
Mandarins: 13-14
Colts: 13-15
The Academy: 14-15
Vanguard Cadets: 16-17
Troopers: 16-18
Blue Devils B: 17-19
Spirit of Atlanta: 18-19
Oregon Crusaders: 20-21
Pacific Crest: 20-21
Legends: 22-23
Genesis: 22-23
Music City: 24-25
Spartans: 24-25

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14 minutes ago, DrumCorpsRadio said:

August 10, 2017 vs. August 11, 2016

2017

Genesis put up the only 2+ score increase (2.425). The most anticipated aspect of World Class Prelims is seeing where the Open Class corps stack up. Vanguard Cadets moved up to the #16 spot overall with Blue Devils B at #18, Legends at #22, Music City at #24 and Spartans closing out the Semifinals qualifiers at #25. That means that 3 World Class corps did not make it to Friday's competition: Seattle Cascades (#26), Jersey Surf (#27), and Pioneer (#33).

Seattle Cascades, #26, missed Semifinals by only 0.225 points.

Colts defeated The Academy for the first time in 7 meetings this season. This is quite a turn as just 3 days earlier The Academy led by 1.375 points in head-to-head competition.

Blue Stars beat Crossmen for the first time since July 15. Blue Stars now lead the season series 8 to 5.

Season-ending tidbits:

  • In its second year of DCI world championships competition, Louisiana Stars improved 3 places to #28.
  • Southwind returned to DCI championships competition for the first time since 2007, finishing at #31.
  • At #33, Pioneer had its lowest finish since joining the World Class ranks in 1993.

2016

Seattle Cascades (4.088), Phantom Regiment (3.400), Pacific Crest (3.225), and Blue Knights (3.075) all put up 3+ point increases while Colt Cadets (-3.900), Shadow (-2.875), 7th Regiment (-2.463), and Les Stentors (-2.025) all saw decreases of 3+ points.

Santa Clara Vanguard reclaimed the #5 spot over The Cadets. 

Madison Scouts hold the lead over Boston Crusaders for the last finalist spot by a 0.788 margin.

On the Open Class front, 5 corps qualified to move on to World Class Semifinals: Blue Devils B (#15), Vanguard Cadets (#20), Legends (#23), Genesis (#24), and Spartans (#25). Two World Class corps did not qualify: Jersey Surf (#26) and Pioneer (#29).

Comparison

Compared to 2016, scores at Prelims were very stable this year with only 3 corps seeing a score swing of more than 2 points. Last year, there were 16 corps in this category.

The fight for gold felt really close last year with 3 corps battling it out and that is the case this year as well. In fact, Santa Clara Vanguard is closer to Blue Devils (0.362) than Blue Devils were to Bluecoats (0.625). Carolina Crown is just about the same distance back as it was last year (0.999 in '17; 0.962 in '16). 

Just for fun, let's apply last year's Semifinals trends to this year. The corps that improved the most in score from Thursday to Friday was Blue Knights, with a 0.700 point increase. If we assume for argument's sake that that is the most anyone will improve tonight, let's play out some possible scenarios of corps that are within striking distance of movement.

  • Santa Clara Vanguard could move to #1 (which would move Blue Devils to #2).
  • Carolina Crown could move to #2 (which would move Santa Clara Vanguard to #3).
  • The Cavaliers could move to #4 (which would move Bluecoats to #5).
  • Crossmen could move to #10 (which would move Blue Stars to #11).
  • The Academy could move to #14 (which would move Colts to #15).
  • Troopers could move to #16 (which would move Vanguard Cadets to #17).
  • Spirit of Atlanta could move to #18 (which would move Blue Devils B to #19).
  • Genesis could move to #22 (which would move Legends to #23).
  • Spartans could move to #24 (which would move Music City to #25).

For even more fun, let's go back to Semifinals in 2015. The corps that improved the most from Thursday to Friday was Blue Devils, without a penalty, was Vanguard Cadets, with a 0.925 point increase. If we assume that increase, here are some additional possibilities:

  • Boston Crusaders could move into a tie for #5 with The Cavaliers.
  • Blue Stars could move to #9 (which would move Phantom Regiment to #10).
  • Colts could move to #13 (which would move Mandarins to #14).
  • Blue Devils B could move to #17 (which would move Troopers to #18).
  • Pacific Crest could move to #20 (which would move Oregon Crusaders to #21).

So if we combine all of these considerations (and ignore the possibility of scores going down and a million other variables), here is a predicted range of finish:

Blue Devils: 1-2
Santa Clara Vanguard: 1-3
Carolina Crown: 2-3
Bluecoats: 4-5
The Cavaliers: 4-5
Boston Crusaders: 6
The Cadets: 7
Blue Knights: 8
Phantom Regiment: 9-10
Blue Stars: 9-11
Crossmen: 10-11
Madison Scouts: 12
Mandarins: 13-14
Colts: 13-15
The Academy: 14-15
Vanguard Cadets: 16-17
Troopers: 16-18
Blue Devils B: 17-19
Spirit of Atlanta: 18-19
Oregon Crusaders: 20-21
Pacific Crest: 20-21
Legends: 22-23
Genesis: 22-23
Music City: 24-25
Spartans: 24-25

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This is making my head hurt!  Don't stop! (LOL)

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August 11, 2017 vs. August 12, 2016

2017

The largest score increase went to Blue Stars (1.425) with 4 Open Class (Blue Devils B, Legends, Music City, Spartans) and 1 World Class corps (The Cadets) seeing their scores decrease. There were only two placement changes from Prelims: The Academy beat Colts to finish at #14 and Spirit of Atlanta beat Blue Devils B to finish at #18. Both changes were listed in the possibilities based on 2016 trends. What was not predicted accurately was the rate of change. In 2016, the highest increase from Thursday to Friday was 0.700; in 2015, it was 0.925. Last night, it was 1.425.

Season-ending tidbits:

  • Mandarins had its best finish ever at #13 and its highest World Class championships score at 85.550. The corps has scored higher but only on the old Division II/III sheets.The corps' previous high placement was #16 in 2001.
  • In addition to winning Open Class championships for the 5th time, Vanguard Cadets tied its highest ever finish in World Class at #16, which was the corps' placement in 2015.
  • Pacific Crest matched its previous lowest placement at #21. Since first competing at DCI Championships in 2003, the corps has placed #21 three times: 2006, 2015 and 2017.
  • Legends had its best finish ever at #22 along with its highest World Class score at 76.225. The corps' previous high placement was #24 in 2016.
  • Music City had its best finish ever at #24 along with its highest World Class score at 74.272. The corps' previous high placement was #25 in 2013.

2016

The highest positive score change was only 0.700. Fourteen of the 25 competing corps had scores decrease with Legends "leading" the way at -2.825. The Cavaliers passed The Cadets to take the #5 spot. Boston Crusaders picked up the big win by moving up to #12 by defeating Madison Scouts. Genesis moved ahead of Legends to finish at #23.

Comparison

As has been the case all season long, scores are higher this year. The #1 seeded corps is 0.849 points higher this year. The #12 corps is 0.950 point higher. Even the #25 corps is higher by 2.000 points.

Year-over-Year Trend-Based Predictions

It's important to note that the 2017 increases at Semifinals were higher than 2016 so the direct comparison may not be accurate. However, it is still fun so here goes.

In 2016, the highest score increase from Friday to Saturday was 0.412 (Santa Clara Vanguard). I If we assume for argument's sake that that is the most anyone will improve tonight, let's play out some possible scenarios of corps that are within striking distance of movement.

  • Santa Clara Vanguard could tie (!) Blue Devils for the gold medal.
  • The Cavaliers could move to #4 (which would move Bluecoats to #5).
In 2015, the highest score increase from Friday to Saturday was 1.150 (Bluecoats and Crossmen). If we assume that increase, all kinds of opportunities open up.
  • Santa Clara Vanguard could move to #1 (which would move Blue Devils to #2).
  • Carolina Crown could move to #2 (which would move Santa Clara Vanguard to #3).
  • The Cavaliers could move to #4 (which would move Bluecoats to #5).
  • Blue Knights could move to #7 (which would move The Cadets to #8).
  • Phantom Regiment could move to #8 (which would move Blue Knights to #9).
  • Blue Stars could move to #9 (which would move Phantom Regiment to #10).
  • Crossmen could move to #10 (which would move Blue Stars to #11).
So if we combine all of these considerations (and ignore the possibility of scores going down and a million other variables), here is a predicted range of finish:
 
Blue Devils: 1-2
Santa Clara Vanguard: 1-3
Carolina Crown: 2-3
Bluecoats: 4-5
The Cavaliers: 4-5
Boston Crusaders: 6
The Cadets: 7-8
Blue Knights: 7-9
Phantom Regiment: 8-10
Blue Stars: 9-11
Crossmen: 10-11
Madison Scouts: 12
 
Based on season histories (within these ranges only), here's some additional information:
 
Gold Medal - Blue Devils is 13-0 vs. Santa Clara Vanguard.
Silver Medal - Santa Clara Vanguard is 12-0 vs. Carolina Crown.
Bronze Medal - Carolina Crown
4th Place - Bluecoats is 15-0 vs. The Cavaliers
5th Place - The Cavaliers
6th Place - Boston Crusaders
7th Place - The Cadets is 10-0 vs. Blue Knights.
8th Place - Blue Knights is 12-4 vs. Phantom Regiment.
9th Place - Phantom Regiment is 9-0 vs. Blue Stars.
10th Place - Blue Stars is 9-5 vs. Crossmen.
11th Place - Crossmen
12th Place - Madison Scouts
 
So in order for Santa Clara Vanguard to pull off the win, it would need to channel the 2008 Phantom Regiment who lost 16-1 to Blue Devils with that 1 being in championships. Note the gap between the two corps was 0.375 at Prelims and 0.025 at Semifinals. Interestingly, the only other show Blue Devils lost in 2006 was DCI East to The Cavaliers who finished in 3rd at championships.

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2 minutes ago, DCPusername said:

You said the evil word, "TIE." I know they'll let 2-11 tie, but I'm pretty sure they won't let there be a tie for 1st place. Does anyone know the current procedure for breaking a tie in a final score?

I think they pick a judge at random and he gets sacrificed to BAC's fire pit.

Seriously, not sure.

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August 12, 2017 vs. August 13, 2016

2017

Blue Devils earned its 18th world championship with a decisive win and the greatest score increase of the night at 0.425 points. The only other corps to improve its score night over night was The Cavaliers, which moved up a spot from #5 to #4. This was one of the two higher probability changes that yesterday's analysis considered although it was the first time in 16 meetings this year The Cavaliers bested Bluecoats. Phantom Regiment saw its score decrease most (-1.762).

Season-ending Tidbits:

  • Blue Devils have not placed below 2nd in the Lucas Oil Stadium era (2009-present).
  • Santa Clara Vanguard finished in its highest placement since 1999 when it shared the gold medal with Blue Devils.
  • Carolina Crown finished in a medalist spot for the third year in a row, the first time in the corps' history it has achieved this status and only the third corps to do this in the Lucas Oil Stadium era (Blue Devils, Bluecoats).
  • Bluecoats continued the trend of champions (other than Blue Devils) falling a bit in the year after. With a 5th place finish, the corps matches Carolina Crown's path with its first championship in 2013 and a 5th place finish in 2014.
  • Boston Crusaders had its highest finish since 2003 and achieved the greatest movement from 12th place since Crossmen went 12 to 7 in 1989-90.
  • The Cadets had its lowest finish since 1981. 
  • Phantom Regiment tied its lowest finish in the Lucas Oil Stadium era (2009).
  • Blue Stars were a finalist for the fifth year in a row, the corps' longest streak since leaving top 12 status in 1980.
  • This was the fourth year in a row in finals for Crossmen, its longest streak since being knocked out in 2005.
  • With 39 corps participating, this was the largest DCI championships event since 2011 when 41 corps competed. Corps participating in 2017 that  were not there in 2011: Southwind, Impulse, Shadow, Guardians, Louisiana Stars, River City Rhythm, Gold. Corps participating in 2011 that were not there in 2017: Glassmen, Teal Sound, Revolution, Forte, Racine Scouts, Blue Saints, Spirit of Newark/New Jersey.

Trend Analysis:
This statistic looks at how much above or below its Lucas Oil Stadium average a corps placed this season. The higher the number, the further above its historical average the corps did.

Trending up in 2017 (2+ positions)

  1. Mandarins (5.9)
  2. Legends (5.6)
  3. Music City (3.6)
  4. Vanguard Cadets (3.4)
  5. Santa Clara Vanguard (2.7)
  6. Boston Crusaders (2.6)
  7. Crossmen (2.4)

Trending down in 2017 (2+ positions)

  1. Pioneer (-5.6)
  2. Jersey Surf (-3.6)
  3. The Cadets (-3.0)
  4. Les Stentors (-2.7)
  5. Troopers (-2.6)
  6. Spirit of Atlanta (-2.3)
  7. Phantom Regiment (-2.3)
  8. Pacific Crest (-2.3)
  9. Colt Cadets (-2.3)

Trending up 3 years in a row (2017, 2016, 2015):

  • Blue Knights (0.9, 1.9, 2.9)
  • Genesis (1.7, 1.7, 2.7)
  • Crossmen (2.4, 3.4, 1.4)
  • Music City (3.6, 0.6, 0.6)
  • Legends (5.6, 3.6, 2.6)

Trending down 3 years in a row:

  • Pioneer (-5.6, -1.6, -1.6)
  • Jersey Surf (-3.6, -2.6, -4.6)
  • Les Stentors (-2.7, -1.7, -0.7)
  • Spirit of Atlanta (-2.3, -5.3, -2.3)
  • Phantom Regiment (-2.3, -1.3, -0.3)
  • Pacific Crest (-2.3, -0.3, -2.3)
  • Colt Cadets (-2.3, -2.3, -0.3)
  • Gold (-0.2, -1.2, -5.2)

2016

Bluecoats earned its 1st world championship. Three corps finished within half a point of victory: Bluecoats (97.650), Blue Devils (97.250), and Carolina Crown (97.088). Santa Clara Vanguard had the greatest score increase (0.412 points) while The Academy decreased most (-1.125). There were no placement changes from Friday to Saturday. 

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