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2018 Prediction Thread


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 In DCA,  how did the Bushwackers do under Bush years ? Well ?.....or did they get wacked ?

 

 

 

Edited by BRASSO
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(Reposting from a similar thread)

Championship Contenders

Blue Devils and Carolina Crown - No elaboration needed for BD.  CC is likely to field the kind of design that put them on top.  Percussion will begin to rival their amazing brass, and the colorguard will be stronger.  These two corps will be the class of the field in 2018.  

Medal Pool

Santa Clara, Cavaliers, Boston Crusaders, and Bluecoats - Santa Clara will remain strong.  The Cavies' stock is still rising, propelled by MM maturity, experience, and their brand's re-acquired "it" factor.  Boston's wave has still not crested.  Retained veterans and an uptick in experienced recruits will keep upward pressure on design, demand, and placement.  Bluecoats have weathered their first post-championship season.  Their return to the medal hunt will be unhampered by having "just won" (an affliction to which only BD is immune).  

Mid-tier

Blue Knights, Cadets, Phantom, and Blue Stars - BK's brass has been consistently good and their percussion was the talk of Indy in 2017.  With an improved guard and a design worthy of the performers, they have a chance to top this tier and possibly snag a top 5 finish.  Member retention and an aggressive recruiting effort are solidifying the Cadets' position in this group.  Early design readiness will be key to allowing this corps' MMs and championship DNA to deliver and climb.  Fine-tuning the Phantom Mystique, and fielding a design that conveys it, will show the younger generation why the "dinos" still revere this corps.  Blue Stars were victorious in their last duel with Crossmen.  To rise within this group, they will need more design "wow factor" to challenge Phantom, Cadets, and BK.

Finalist Contenders

Crossmen, Madison, Mandarins, Colts, and Academy - Crossmen are likely to remain solid finalists and challengers to the mid-tier.  Madison has both passionate MMs and fans.  The question is how these strengths will be channeled.  Mandarins are putting the most pressure on the others.  Colts have a chance to jump in, and Academy needs a dose of their 2016 magic to challenge.  

Edited by Ediker
spelling correction
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 Ediker's overall placement predictions here seem pretty reasonable, imo... given most of us ( myself included ) know so very little at the moment on how Corps camps are going , and what the designs of the shows will ultimately look and sound like with all these Corps. I think Crown's projection to be in a 2 way race with BD for the 2018 Title is maybe a bit too optimistic for them. I guess I see Crown's Design team having to come up with an improved design than that of 2017 to be in position to move up and be in this two way only 2018 race tier with BD. But a 3rd place finish in 2017 with the show they had, should make such a 2018 prediction of 1-2 certainly not out of the question though either, imo.

Edited by BRASSO
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1 hour ago, Ediker said:

 

Blue Knights, Cadets, Phantom, and Blue Stars - BK's brass has been consistently good and their percussion was the talk of Indy in 2017.  With an improved guard and a design worthy of the performers, they have a chance to top this tier and possibly snag a top 5 finish.  Member retention and an aggressive recruiting effort are solidifying the Cadets' position in this group.  Early design readiness will be key to allowing this corps' MMs and championship DNA to deliver and climb.  Fine-tuning the Phantom Mystique, and fielding a design that conveys it, will show the younger generation why the "dinos" still revere this corps.  Blue Stars were victorious in their last duel with Crossmen.  To rise within this group, they will need more design "wow factor" to challenge Phantom, Cadets, and BK.

 

People have been talking about BK percussion for years but the judges havent been giving the same love. Last 4 years they have been 6th twice and 9th twice so mostly they get what they are placing overall or lower.  Brass will also be different since they have a new staff if I am correct.  Positive is they still have the crazy design team that will make the show a complete thinker.

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1 hour ago, BRASSO said:

 I think Crown's projection to be in a 2 way race with BD for the 2018 Title is maybe a bit too optimistic for them. I guess I see Crown's Design team having to come up with an improved design than that of 2017 to be in position to move up and be in this two way only 2018 race tier with BD. But a 3rd place finish in 2017 with the show they had, should make such a 2018 prediction of 1-2 certainly not out of the question though either, imo.

Yeah, I go back and forth with Crown.  My gut has been discounting them in recent years, but examining the details changes my mind. In terms of overall 2017 show design, their show was arguably the most accessible and definitely the most polarizing.  In a field where their competitions' shows could be characterized as "Wow, wow, wow", Crown had a show that was "WOW-WOW-WOW, wait a minute..., wtf?"... and they still medaled.  If Crown's design team can do a whole show, with WOWs like 2017's first 5 minutes, they'll be on fire in 2018.  Provided, of course, that the MMs perform it as well as 2017.  

Edited by Ediker
added a phrase for clarity
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7 minutes ago, BlueStainGlass said:

People have been talking about BK percussion for years but the judges havent been giving the same love. Last 4 years they have been 6th twice and 9th twice so mostly they get what they are placing overall or lower.  Brass will also be different since they have a new staff if I am correct.  Positive is they still have the crazy design team that will make the show a complete thinker.

There is some truth to the "slotting" argument.  BK's and, previously, Santa Clara's percussion sections have been victims of it.  The further a season progresses, the more likely judges are to rank individual captions near the corps' overall placement.  BK's show designs do set them apart, often on their own placement island.  Like Cadets, BK's visual design was distinctive for having more variety and saturation of color than others.  They looked great.  I wanted to like BK's show in 2017, but struggled with the overall concept.  It might be because, as you describe, the designers went for a "thinking" show.  When it comes to art forms, like drum corps, my tendency is toward things that make me feel something.  

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11 hours ago, Ediker said:

When it comes to art forms, like drum corps, my tendency is toward things that make me feel something. 

Nice comment. I think I agree. Just what makes me "feel something" is still pretty fuzzy. BD, SCV, Cavies grabbed me every time I saw them last summer. I felt great after those shows. Not so much after several other finalists, even though I appreciated their good performances. But now hoping they all grab me in 2018.

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  • 3 months later...

Just for fun...  as part of our 2018 prediction thread, it might be interesting to look at the placement statistics for the past 15 years.  For example, for 8th place, the highest previous year's placement was 3rd and the lowest previous year's placement (in this case semi-finals placement) was 14th.  Most frequently (in the past 15 years) the 8th place corps was 7th the previous year.  Enjoy... 

ZdgTc3i.png

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On 8/16/2017 at 11:18 AM, Jeff Ream said:

whoever scores highest wins

still this

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  1. Devils, Has a slightly better than good chance to win. If this was a Threepeat year I'd put them in 2nd or 3rd.
  2. SCV, Has a good chance to win. Awesome show last year but, that was last year. Added drill writing god to their staff. Should be good!
  3. Crown, Has a good chance to win. now the percussion situation  fixed. Always great brass, Excellent colorguard, and show design god. puts them up there.
  4. Bluecoats, Has a good chance to win.  Can't wait to see what their brilliant design teem come up with this year.
  5. Cavaliers, Has been steadily improving I see them as the 5th C in the Carolina,Concord,Canton,Clara crowd
  6. Boston, Should be better but, How much better? Top 3 better?
  7.  Cadets,  After the recent scandal and change of schedule and show restructuring, I have no clue. I'm sure the staff and Alumni will motivate the kids to be their best. Their staff is good enough to pull off something in the top 6. How will the judges react?
  8. Bk, Very entertaining shows lately. Can they top 5 in captions?
  9. Phantom, has always been a wait and see corps for me. they can land anywhere 5-10.
  10. Blue Stars,are where BK used to be a couple years ago , floating between 8 -11
  11. Madison,  IMO had the ugliest show  in drum corps last year but, it got them back into the finals.
  12. Crossmen, I thought Xmen were better than their scores showed all last year 
  13. Mandarin, I thought Mandarin should have made finals over Madison ( no hate for Madison )
  14. Academy, I always root for Academy to make finals
  15. Colts, I always root for Academy to make finals   

  If someone put a gun to my head:

1-4 I'm ducking bulletes

5.-7 Cadets, Cavies,  Crusaders- in no particular order

8.   Blue Knights

9. Phantom

10.Blue Stars

11.Crossmen

12.Mandarin

13.Madison

14. Academy

15. Colts                                                                                                                                                                

Edited by boxingfred
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