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2018 Prediction Thread


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11 hours ago, Ediker said:

I don't understand exactly what you're expressing.  In a nutshell, my point is that Crown had an outside chance at gold, and a definite chance to take silver.  Any chance was blown when the mic malfunctioned in both semis and finals.  Had their runs been good in semis and finals, the judges might have given them higher ordinals in more subcaptions.  BD and SCV were the odds on favorites, deservedly, for 1st and 2nd.  Crown was a likely 3rd.  The mic disaster nixed any chance of them turning in their best performances and possibly moving up during semis and finals.  They were lucky to hold 3rd, imho.  BD and SCV were the class of the field.  Any remaining east coast hopes were dashed with that sputtering mic.  

I'll make this as easy as possible to understand by looking at the facts...posted judges scores.

If Crown got perfect 20s at Finals in GE Music, Brass, Music Analysis, and Percussion their total would have been 97.95 (39.05 + 28.9 + 30)
Fact: BD's score was 98.5375
98.5375>97.95. Difference is 0.5875 higher on BD's side.
SCV scored 97.6, so ok, Crown would have been 2nd in this case. But that's with a PERFECT Music score!

Regarding Prelims & Semis...
Fact: Crown's GE Music score went up 0.125 from Prelims to Semis. Brass and Music Analysis stayed the exact same score.
Fact: Crown's GE Music score went up 0.05 from Semis to Finals. Brass went down 0.2, but Music Analysis went up 0.2.

You seem to be forgetting there is a visual aspect to the final score...
Fact: Crown was 0.8 behind BD in total Visual 
Fact: Crown was 0.825 behind in the GE Visual section (average of -0.55 & -1.1).
So 0.8 + 0.825 = 1.625 behind in visual positions at Finals.
Fact: Crown Guard was 6th. 

I'm sorry, but when Crown was at best 0.625 behind BD in Total Visual after Semis, outside chance would have meant BD would have had to melt down in Visual, and that's something that has a slim chance of happening as they have won Visual 10 straight years. 

And if you were to claim a mic issue affected their visual performance enough to take away any chances at gold...
Fact: Prelims with no mic issue Crown was 0.25 behind BD in GE Visual and 0.775 behind BD in Total Visual
Fact: Crown scored a 19.7 in Visual Analysis at Finals, so they couldn't have been shook too bad.

Bottom line here: Crown was AMAZING musically, but that wasn't going be enough to push them to 2nd or even 1st with the Visual scores they received.  

 

Edited by snare_guy_83
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3 hours ago, snare_guy_83 said:

Bottom line here: Crown was AMAZING musically, but that wasn't going be enough to push them to 2nd or even 1st with the Visual scores they received.  

I appreciate the thoroughness with which you present the numbers, and I understand your point that mathematically Crown's chances were slim, given the numbers everyone got those nights.  

Remember that the numbers are not absolutes, but rather ordinals (relative placements).  A better performance might not have meant necessarily a higher number, but a higher relative placement in each subcategory and greater relative spread to the corps that placed lower.  In other words, Crown doing better would have resulted not only in Crown getting a bigger number, but SCV (and possibly BD) getting a lower number, and by a bigger spread.  

We all know Crown had hardly a chance in Hell of catching BD (who were outstanding).  BD would have had to have choked, which hasn't happened since 1989.  Crown was closer to SCV (who were also outstanding and consistent).  

Given what Cesario and others have described as "magic moments", where the music/visual overlap and can boost each other's score, Crown had an opportunity to get higher Visual scores also (I know the guard was no comparison to the top 2).  

I'm not sure what fuels the energy behind your responses.  I suspect it's either you consider BD and SCV uncatchable - or - that you consider Crown's mic gaffe to have had no impact.  My opinion is that the mic problem had an impact and those responsible deserve to feel ashamed.  Even if Crown had little chance of moving up, the mic problem undermined the hard work the kids put in, and prevented them from turning in their best total performance.  

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My hunch is everyone will have great shows. Another hunch is electronics and amplification will still be there, but perhaps more caution will be taken. Hoping to continue to hear better balances between brass and battery vs pit. I hope to see strong offerings from Phantom and Madison, but also hope to see Academy and Mandarins keep up their successful runs. Hope Troopers find a visual design and theme to go along with that terrific brass line of theirs. 

I think the top 4 prior to Finals will be mostly intact. Blue Devils and Santa Clara have everything seemingly working in their favor, but Crown and Bluecoats should be strong again. We may see Blooo back in the top 3 next year. Cavaliers were wonderful visually, but they will need a better overall music book, especially in brass, if they wish to go any higher.  I imagine Boston will be vastly improved, and they were incredibly good this year. They will have better content numbers next year and could be dangerous. I felt if Boston had better content and construction numbers this past summer that they might have passed up the Cavaliers. Cadets will also be improved. 

As always it will be fun to watch with some great battles over the season. 

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1.  SCV

2.  BD

3.  Cavaliers

4.  Crown

5..  BAC

6.  Bluecoats

7.  Phantom

8.  Blue Knights

9.  Cadets

10. Crossmen

11.  Madison Scouts

12.  Blue Stars

13. Mandarins

14.  Academy

15. SCVC

16.  Spirit of Atlanta

 

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Prediction for next year. BD wins their 19th title and most people will hope for someone to knock them off the next season.

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1. Blue Devils

2. Carolina Crown

3. Bluecoats

4.Cavaliers

5. Cadets

6. SCV

7. Boston

8. Blue Knights

9. Crossmen

10. Blue Stars

11. Phantom Regiment

12. Madison Scouts

 

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3 hours ago, Madcityscout said:

Prediction for next year. BD wins their 19th title and most people will hope for someone to knock them off the next season.

 Now,.. you are going WAY out on a limb with this prediction, I hope you know.

Edited by BRASSO
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