queenanne_1536 Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 8 hours ago, skevinp said: What is it about "today's DCI" that makes that impossible? And when did today begin? Well, go look up past scores and tell me when someone over came a 4 point deficit in mid- to late- July to pass someone in recent years. I doubt you will find more than 1 or 2, if that. It just doesn't happen any more. If you pay attention to scores and spreads today and analyze what has happened in recent years, the groupings are already set. 1-3: BD, SCV, Bloo; 4-6: Cavies, Crown, BAC; 7: Cadets; 8-11: Blue Stars, Blue Knights, Regiment, Mandarins; 12-13: Crossmen and Academy ; 14: Spirit; 15-17: Madison, Colts, Troopers. While I believe things will flip around within these groups, I don't believe we are going to see anyone climb into the group above them, or fall out of their group. Maybe one surprise, but that will be it. It's much more perdictible today than it was in the 70s, 80s, 90s and 00s. Last year, BD beat SCV by under a point almost the entire season, yet SCV never beat them once. Last year, SCV beat Crown by under a point almost the entire season, yet Crown never beat them once. Last year, Bluecoats were undefeated until DCI MN. Vanguard beat them, and they suddenly dropped from undefeated to the 4-6 group and never got out of it. This happens all the time. These are just two examples. Today a 4 point spread is a lot bigger than it was in the days when judging was mainly focused on execution. Today's judging puts a lot of emphasis on design, and that's already been decided. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skevinp Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 33 minutes ago, queenanne_1536 said: Well, go look up past scores and tell me when someone over came a 4 point deficit in mid- to late- July to pass someone in recent years. I doubt you will find more than 1 or 2, if that. It just doesn't happen any more. If you pay attention to scores and spreads today and analyze what has happened in recent years, the groupings are already set. 1-3: BD, SCV, Bloo; 4-6: Cavies, Crown, BAC; 7: Cadets; 8-11: Blue Stars, Blue Knights, Regiment, Mandarins; 12-13: Crossmen and Academy ; 14: Spirit; 15-17: Madison, Colts, Troopers. While I believe things will flip around within these groups, I don't believe we are going to see anyone climb into the group above them, or fall out of their group. Maybe one surprise, but that will be it. It's much more perdictible today than it was in the 70s, 80s, 90s and 00s. Last year, BD beat SCV by under a point almost the entire season, yet SCV never beat them once. Last year, SCV beat Crown by under a point almost the entire season, yet Crown never beat them once. Last year, Bluecoats were undefeated until DCI MN. Vanguard beat them, and they suddenly dropped from undefeated to the 4-6 group and never got out of it. This happens all the time. These are just two examples. Today a 4 point spread is a lot bigger than it was in the days when judging was mainly focused on execution. Today's judging puts a lot of emphasis on design, and that's already been decided. So it sounds like you are saying today means since 2010 or so, and that judging was "mainly focused on execution" before that, and that judging rules are different the first part of the year in this regard but change at some point, such as around the time of the MN show. I'm not sure I agree, but I appreciate the clarification. The first world championship I attended was in 1996, which I'm pretty sure was well after the demise of the tick system. Phantom picked up 3.7 points on BD in 2 nights. Even if the judging emphasis had changed somewhat, its hard for me to believe that what could once be done in 2 nights is now impossible to do over the course of several weeks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
queenanne_1536 Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 1 hour ago, skevinp said: So it sounds like you are saying today means since 2010 or so, and that judging was "mainly focused on execution" before that, and that judging rules are different the first part of the year in this regard but change at some point, such as around the time of the MN show. I'm not sure I agree, but I appreciate the clarification. The first world championship I attended was in 1996, which I'm pretty sure was well after the demise of the tick system. Phantom picked up 3.7 points on BD in 2 nights. Even if the judging emphasis had changed somewhat, its hard for me to believe that what could once be done in 2 nights is now impossible to do over the course of several weeks. I get where you are coming from. It's hard for me to believe that too, honestly, but it is reality. If the system back then were the way it is today, I do not think some great surprises we've seen (Scouts '88, Regiment '96, Regiment '08) would have happened. I also don't think we'd see things like Spirit beating Garfield in June of '87, or Garfield getting slaugthered by nearly everyone in June/July '86 to finish 4th at finals. I just don't think that's the world we live in anymore. I find it hard to believe that there wasn't one night in 2017 where SCV was better than Devils, or Crown better than SCV. If you go back (fromthepressbox.com) and look at scores from mid-July through finals from maybe 2010 or 2012 on, there just isn't much variance between where a group was placing mid July and where they ultimately ended up at finals. At least in terms of someone sitting in 8th place now and finishing 4th or 12th at finals. Last year, the ONLY surprise (to me) finals week was Cavies passing Bluecoats, but they were in the same group coming in. It wasn't like Cavies were sitting in 7th coming in and ended up 4th. They were tenths behind Bluecoats and ended up ahead of them. I know I'm rambling, but sometimes I wonder if a champion is decided in June. Honestly. I was 100% certain in June 2016 when I saw Bluecoats that they were going to win. Why? Subjectivity and knowing that most of the top corps have the ability to execute at a championship level. Subjectivity is the big one here, because GE is a huge question mark and it doesn't always fall with the corps that is the most popular, or the one we might think is effective. Content is also subjective. With so much subjectivity I think it is hard for judges to go completely outside of the norm. Ha. I'm blabbering on and on, but I just don't think there will be much movement from SA to finals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouooga Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 Academy is the wild card, and I'm not counting them out yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Schehr Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 Whoever doesn’t in up in 11th but is ahead of the 13th place corps will be 12th. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcikon2 Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 I think Academy and Spirit both have good shots at Finals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onionhead Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 19 minutes ago, Jim Schehr said: Whoever doesn’t in up in 11th but is ahead of the 13th place corps will be 12th. Finally........ the voice of logic !! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Schehr Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 36 minutes ago, onionhead said: Finally........ the voice of logic !! It’s as good as anyone’s else’s. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chadwick Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 I really doubt they will fall out but I do wonder based on recent scores if Blue Knights should be more in this discussion. While 2 points ahead of Academy last night in El Dorado they basically tied the same scores of Crossmen st a different show. Again, probably not going to happen but at the same time, they shouldn’t sit to easy where they are at right now. Can’t wait to see the San Antonio spreads on Saturday! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fran Haring Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 2 hours ago, Jim Schehr said: Whoever doesn’t in up in 11th but is ahead of the 13th place corps will be 12th. Channeling your inner Jeff Ream here... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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