dbc03

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dbc03 last won the day on November 25 2019

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About dbc03

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  • Birthday 01/24/1984

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  1. Oh yeah, why are ya'll talkin about three-peats then? You can't get a three-peat until 2024 at the earliest
  2. Nah, I'm not nearly malicious enough for real trolling. Ya'll should be arguing that BD winning in 2021 would count as a four-pete because they've been the only DCI champion in 4 years instead of arguing with me about a three-pete.
  3. I thought my last post made everything clear, but fine, here is my proof https://i.imgur.com/vTAyIge.gif
  4. Maybe, they might even place first, just not in three consecutive calendar years which are the requirements for a three-peat in drum corps 😉
  5. No problem, it is right here https://bit.ly/33XkGzc
  6. I don't know the rules for the olympics. It's in the drum corps rules, look it up
  7. Don't shoot the messenger, I didn't write the rules, but rules are rules. Sorry!
  8. Only counts as a three-peat if it occurs in three consecutive calendar years. Sorry those are the rules
  9. Can you point me to where other corps have answered this question? BD's statement and FAQ don't answer it, nor does SVC's, nor Crown's, nor Bluecoat's, nor Boston's...
  10. DCI's statement said they will be allowed to march in 2021
  11. Which is why I stopped once I ran out of people. Again, we are talking about a worst case scenario. Not the most likely scenario. ~2 means approximately 2 days. Sometimes in the last 8 days it has taken closer to 3 days to double, some days it has doubled faster than 2 days. It's a Fermi approximation, it gets us to the order of magnitude, it isn't intended to be a high fidelity calculation. We still run out of people to be infected before the end of 8 weeks even if you use 3 days instead. Realistically we have no idea how many cases we had yesterday because we don't have enough tests being run to get an accurate count. From what I can find the lower bound is 33,546 but the actual number is almost certainly higher. You are trying really hard to "own" me but just showing your lack of reading comprehension. It is an oversimplification, which I point out in the second half of my post and looked at the more realistic 20% number instead. My point is not to prove that the experts are right with their calculations, it is to show that even with my limited understanding of how viruses spread the numbers seem pretty reasonable as a worst case scenario. The experts have taken way more things into consideration than I have and know way more about this than any of us here, so I'm gonna take them more seriously than the guy on drum corps planet calling them morons
  12. Do you understand how exponential increases work? It is entirely reasonable to think that that many Americans can die in 8 weeks in the worst case scenario. 8 days ago there were 2943 cases in the US, that number has been doubling every ~2 days. If it continues to spread at that rate then in about 5 weeks everyone in the country would have it. It would only take a 0.4% death rate to get up to 1.5 million Americans dead in that scenario. It seems very unlikely that it would spread completely out of control like that, but the death rate also seems to be higher than that based on the data we have so far. If the death rate is actually 2% you've only got to get up to 75 million infections (~23% of the population) to hit 1.5 million deaths. The Diamond Princess was an interesting accidental experiment, with poor quarantine procedures about 20% of the passengers got infected in about a month, applied to the population at large that would put us in the ballpark of the 1.5 million. I see nothing in the math for the worst case that rules out 1.5 million Americans dead in eight weeks. It thankfully is very unlikely to be that high, but that's why it is called a worst case. Not really. New York, by far the worst hit in the US so far, was just starting to shut down gatherings of >500 people 8 days ago. California was still only recommending social distancing.
  13. You should probably read the rest of the article. Collins was not offering a prediction, but a realistic worst-case scenario of what awaits America in the next eight weeks or so unless, in his words, we embrace “the more extreme version” of social distancing. ... Collins added this important qualifier: “Now we have a chance to change that, by applying now the most draconian measures on social distancing to try to limit the spread of coronavirus from person to person. But we will not succeed at changing the course from that exponential curve unless there is full national engagement in those commitments to try to reduce spread. I think we’re getting there; certainly in the last few days there seems to be a lot of waking up to just how serious the threat is, but that’s obviously not universal across this large and complicated country.” An expert saying "here's the worst case" is not the same as an expert saying "here is what is going to happen." Some pretty extreme measures have been put into place in the past 8 days, and they are hopefully having an effect.
  14. My opinion is I'll trust the experts over the guy calling the experts morons.
  15. My opinion is that experts know more about infectious diseases than you. The narcissism required to think otherwise is astounding.