Drumcorpdad62
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Posts posted by Drumcorpdad62
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Any reason why some corps are scoring higher then the past 20 years? Did they start later so got more practice time vs traveling time (Noticed that with The Troopers last year). This compares the highest first score in the last 20 years to this years first score.
1st score 2023 Prev Hi 1st score Diff Bluecoats 79.8 74.9 4.9 Blue Devils 77 77.5 -0.5 Boston 77.15 75 2.15 The Cadets 76.4 77 -0.6 Carolina Crown 75 74.65 0.35 Blue Knights 72 70.6 1.4 Phantom Regiment 71.3 73.5 -2.2 The Cavaliers 70 75.35 -5.35 Blue Stars 69.3 66.2 3.1 Crossmen 70.5 72.5 -2 Mandarins 71.2 63.9 7.3 The Academy 65.5 69.55 -4.05 Troopers 66.75 65.5 1.25 Madison Scouts 64.1 71.1 -7 Colts 65.5 68.75 -3.25 -
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As always, statistics doesn't apply to the arts, too many variables. But some surprises 1. Blue Knights only improved 19 point off first score, 6 points below their 5 year average. was it the show, the ability of the MM, cleaning? who knows but definitely an anamoly. 2. Boston had the biggest improvement over their 5 year average +2.745. 3. Crown had the highest starting score, but again performed below their average -3.46. 4. Finally, Troopers. I guess starting 9 days later then other corps made a difference. Their first score was 65.76, 6 points higher then the average of their last 5 years. their 2022 increase was the same over the last 5 year average so that high start defintely helped. I have all scores going back to 2002 in an excel spreadsheet if anyone likes this kind of stuff. My son is heading into the High school marching band world so I will not keep up this spreadsheet any more.
BTW, I predicted Blue Devils score exactly, just didn't get rank correct. (And yes, I corrected the Bluecoats name)
avg clean Starting Prediction Actual Actual score Predicted Rank Actual Rank Difference Clean Clean Diff Blue Devils 26.61 72.1 98.71 98.75 0.04 2 1 1 26.65 0.04 Boston 25.13 69.45 94.58 97.325 2.745 5 2 1 27.875 2.745 Bluecoats 26.27 71.7 97.97 97.325 -0.645 3 2 1 25.625 -0.645 Carolina Crown 26.36 73.45 99.81 96.35 -3.46 1 4 -3 22.9 -3.46 Santa Clara 26.11 69.95 96.06 95 -1.06 4 5 1 25.05 -1.06 The Cadets 25.11 69.15 94.26 92.913 -1.347 6 6 0 23.763 -1.347 Blue Stars 26.12 65.15 91.27 92.775 1.505 9 7 2 27.625 1.505 Phantom Regiment 24.54 65.75 90.29 90.675 0.385 10 8 2 24.925 0.385 The Cavaliers 25.74 67.6 93.34 90.6 -2.74 7 9 2 23 -2.74 Mandarins 23.72 65.3 89.02 90.013 0.993 11 10 1 24.713 0.993 Colts 23.3 62.35 85.65 87.45 1.8 15 11 4 25.1 1.8 Troopers 21.11 65.76 86.87 87.425 0.555 13 12 1 21.665 0.555 Crossmen 24.45 63.35 87.8 86.925 -0.875 12 13 1 23.575 -0.875 Blue Knights 25.14 66.7 91.84 85.788 -6.052 8 14 6 19.088 -6.052 Madison Scouts 22.31 64.5 86.81 83.725 -3.085 14 15 1 19.225 -3.085 The Academy 21 61.45 82.45 82.2 -0.25 16 16 0 20.75 -0.25 -
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29 minutes ago, Reed said:
I remember taking my son to his first show when he was going into 6th grade (summer of 2012). He's loved it ever since, is a music ed major at UNT starting his senior year in a couple weeks, worked several band camps and teched at a few schools (he'll be at Marcus HS this fall), and now aging out with his dream corps. I'm a little proud...
My son graduates from UNT in December. Small world.
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I had no clue what drum corps was. My high school was so small we didn’t even have a marching band. My first show was in Houston and I was hooked. I went to finals both years, volunteered with the Crossmen, and even made it to Boston to watch 4th of July parades. I think this is an unheralded activity that few know about and even less recognize the sacrifice the MMs, staff, parents, and fans make for this activity.
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My son marched Crossmen in 16 and 17. He was the last person contracted in 16. He will even tell you he wasn't that good, but was willing to work hard, take instruction, and try his best. That first year made a huge change in what he is passionate about and he went to college to study music and teach. He is teching for a high school band and today led his first rehearsal. He just texted me and said that he feels like he is on the path to doing what he really loves to do. Drum corps can change peoples lives and I have seen that first hand. (BTW, he was such a bad marcher his first season that he earned the nickname "Baby Giraffe" for his marching style).
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My rankings on Hostrauser kicking his illnesses butt.
1. 100%
Seriously, prayers for your recovery.
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I did something similar, but yours are WAY more accurate as you take into account the fluctuation in judges scoring. I just took average first score over the past 18 years and took average of last 7 years spread between first score and high score. Then I took first score of 2022 and added the average 7 year spread.
avg clean Starting Prediction Carolina Crown 26.36 73.45 99.81 Blue Devils 26.61 72.1 98.71 Blue Coats 26.27 71.7 97.97 Santa Clara 26.11 69.95 96.06 Boston 25.13 69.45 94.58 The Cadets 25.11 69.15 94.26 The Cavaliers 25.74 67.6 93.34 Blue Knights 25.14 66.7 91.84 Blue Stars 26.12 65.15 91.27 Phantom Regiment 24.54 65.75 90.29 Mandarins 23.72 65.3 89.02 Crossmen 24.45 63.35 87.8 Madison Scouts 22.31 64.5 86.81 Colts 23.3 62.35 85.65 The Academy 21 61.45 82.45 Troopers 21.11 60 81.11 -
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20 hours ago, Sensioto said:
A silly CrownStats moment for everyone. Using the methodology from @Drumcorpdad62 on their thread "Data analysis" from last week, I extended out a prediction for Crown's scoring this season if its assumed to be a Top-5 year for Crown.
First, this is all in good fun and by no means should be taken seriously. I am not a statistician, nor do I claim to to even know what I'm doing half the time - I am just killing some time at work.
First, a couple of facts:
- The 73.45 in Muncie, IN on Friday was the highest debut score for Crown since 2013, when the corps scored a 73.2 at their first show. But don't get too excited, because the corps also debuted with a 73.075 in 2010 and finished 4th at Finals.
- Crown has averaged a Finals Night score of 96.665 since being a Top 5 unit (2008-2019)
- In years where Crown medaled, their average Finals Night score jumps to a 97.365
- This season features the fewest shows (21) that Crown will participate in since joining World Class (1994)
Again, using the methodology from Drumcorpdad62, I calculated the "Average Clean" per season (Highest Score - Lowest Score) since Crown has been a perennial Top 5 corps since 2008. So, on average from 2008-2019, from first show to last show, Crown added 25.596 points to their score. In Top 3/Medal Years for Crown, that value increased to 26.831 on average for 2009, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, and 2017. While Crown's 2022 finish is obviously yet to be seen, I think we are all in agreement that Crown will remain in the Top 5 come August, so I will use that figure.
Given Crown's first score of 73.45 last Friday, if we add 25.596 points to that, we get a whopping 97.827. Take that for whatever you want it to mean. Scores should not be treated as placements though, as we all know, and scores can give little insight into a corps' final placement.
However, if we extrapolate out these numbers, we can keep track of how Crown is doing toward this goal compared to this linear model by the following predicted scores (+1.22885 per show):
- Muncie, IN: 73.45
- Kent, OH: 74.67 (Actual: 74.4)
- Lexington, SC: 75.89 (Actual: TBD... and so on...)
- Statesboro, GA: 77.11
- Atlanta, GA: 78.33
- Memphis, TN: 79.54
- Broken Arrow, OK: 80.76
- Denton, TX: 81.98
- Houston, TX: 83.20
- San Antonio, TX: 84.42
- Mesquite, TX: 85.64
- McKinney, TX: 86.86
- Murfreesboro, TN: 88.08
- Atlanta, GA: 89.30
- Winston-Salem, NC: 90.51
- Salem, VA: 91.73
- Allentown, PA: 92.95
- Akron, OH: 94.17
- Indianapolis, IN: 95.39
- Indianapolis, IN: 96.61
- Indianapolis, IN: 97.83
OBVIOUSLY, this is just a prediction algorithm and scores will fluctuate wildly and mean nothing in regard to placements. This is just a fun little tracker that I will be following along with to see Crown's progress. We all know ~1.2 point jumps seldom happen during Finals Week. Glares at Phantom 2008 👀
Thanks for the quote and that is a good analysis. Here is my final prediction based on 1. Their opening score this season 2) the average increase over the last 7 years from 1st score to High score...and the answer is
avg clean Starting Prediction Carolina Crown 26.36 73.45 99.81 Blue Devils 26.61 72.1 98.71 Blue Coats 26.27 71.7 97.97 Santa Clara 26.11 69.95 96.06 Boston 25.13 69.45 94.58 The Cadets 25.11 69.15 94.26 The Cavaliers 25.74 67.6 93.34 Blue Knights 25.14 66.7 91.84 Blue Stars 26.12 65.15 91.27 Phantom Regiment 24.54 65.75 90.29 Mandarins 23.72 65.3 89.02 Crossmen 24.45 63.35 87.8 Madison Scouts 22.31 64.5 86.81 Colts 23.3 62.35 85.65 The Academy 21 61.45 82.45 Troopers 21.11 60 81.11 -
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22 minutes ago, FTNK said:
slow down, Nate Silver!
Thanks, I wish I was that smart. It is all excel for me.
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37 minutes ago, OldSnareDrummer said:
Holy smoke. That's a lot of number crunching. Most of it looks real close between predicted and actual finish.
Poor Troopers. Gone nowhere in all that time?
Yeah very hard to move up. Most of it is the low first score. Interesting that you have corps like Mandarins who jumped up a lot over the last 5 years.
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30 minutes ago, Sensioto said:
Interesting stuff. I enjoy number-crunching too. How did you get the Prediction and Actual columns? Is Prediction = The 2018 low score plus the Avg Clean?
Correct, I took the first score and added the average clean. the average clean is the last 6 years of increase from first score to high score. I did High score as half the corps score goes down in finals. what is interesting is if you do the last 19 years instead of last 6 years there has been an increase in cleaning over time. In other words, corps are getting better at getting better
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I have analyzed all historical scores since 2003 and have calculated average first score and average high score to predict final score based on the average increase from first to last. 2018 is the last time I predicted, but will do 2022 when all corps has a first score. I like data and it is just fun for me. Interesting, when sorting on avg clean the top corps always clean the most from first score to high score. The average clean is an average of the last 6 years, not the last 19 years. That is why adding that to first score doesnt equal the average high or prediciton
avg low avg hi avg clean Prediction Actual difference Predicted Rank Actual Rank Difference Santa Clara 71.43 94.75 26.11 96.738 98.62 -1.882 2 1 1 Blue Devils 74.03 98.05 26.61 97.438 97.35 0.088 1 2 1 Blue Coats 70.35 94.6 26.27 95.749 96.95 -1.201 4 3 1 Carolina Crown 70.51 95.09 26.36 96.42 95.5 0.92 3 4 1 Boston 68.31 90.34 25.13 92.354 94.31 -1.956 7 5 2 The Cavaliers 70.95 95.09 25.74 95.266 93.54 1.726 5 6 1 The Cadets 70.98 95.31 25.11 91.932 92.22 -0.288 8 7 1 Blue Stars 64.18 88.25 26.12 87.192 90.05 -2.858 11 8 3 Blue Knights 65.61 89.58 25.14 92.82 88.925 3.895 6 9 3 Mandarins 60.57 80.1 23.72 86.17 88.66 -2.49 12 10 2 Phantom Regiment 68.91 93.06 24.54 88.192 87.7 0.492 10 11 1 Crossmen 65 85.61 24.45 88.508 87.25 1.258 9 12 3 The Academy 63.65 83.28 21 82.382 84.56 -2.178 15 13 2 Colts 62.39 84.26 23.3 85.048 84.21 0.838 13 14 1 Madison Scouts 65.71 87.38 22.31 84.45 82.99 1.46 14 15 1 Troopers 59.84 81.42 21.11 82.148 81.79 0.358 16 16 0 -
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The thoughfulness and respectfulness of all of these posts are much appreciated.
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My understanding is that the Crossmen are going to the C as a logo and doing away with the Cross. I know my son said when he wore the Cross on campus several people asked him if he was a Nazi (😣). I understand the history of the symbol, but how do others feel about changing this iconic symbol? Not looking to pick any side, just want to understand.
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Fanfare for the Common Man -- Opening
Take a letter Maria -- R.B. Greaves during the chorus
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1 hour ago, skevinp said:
One fallacy of the “if it saves just one life” argument is that it disregards all the lives ultimately lost as a result of the actions it is used to justify.
Another problem with the argument it assumes a happy life has no more value than a miserable one.
Yep, totally agree. It is the law of unintended consequences. Sometimes "Just do something" is the wrong thing to do.
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Social Media was not as powerful as it is today. Information today (whether real or imagined) can lead to greater good..or greater panic. This applies to all things unfortunately, not just Covid-19. We won't ever know if the unprecedented level of response (NBA, MLB, Concerts, public gathering etc. cancelled) will have had an impact that is warranted by this response. On the one had, some will say if it saves one life of a person who didn't die because the disease didn't spread due to shutdowns then it is worth it. If it is your parent, child, etc then I can understand that response. On the other hand, people will lose their jobs, houses, retirement and more. I know I don't have the answer to what is it worth to save lives.
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What would happen if they tested for 5 hour energy or Monster energy drinks?
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UNT Brass Band played this last night (the video is not from UNT). Fire in the Blood. Was first played in 2011 so I couldn't find any drum corps that has played it. Is very upbeat and two great solos. Sounds like something Troopers might do.
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I went to each corps wikipedia page. Here is what it had for Blue Devils for example. I knew about some being open class, but didn't want to go through trying to figure out what each corps did in open versus division III vs world class etc.
Year Theme Repertoire Score Placement 1971 Theme from Lawrence of Arabia by Maurice Jarre / Ode to Joy (from Ninth Symphony) by Ludwig van Beethoven /
America The Beautiful by Samuel A. Ward and Katharine Lee Bates /
Big Spender (from Sweet Charity) by Cy Coleman and Dorothy Fields / Stoney End by Laura Nyro /
Shadow of Your Smile (from The Sandpiper) by Johnny Mandel and Paul Francis Webster--- --- 1972 Strike Up the Band (from Strike Up the Band) by George Gershwin and Ira Gershwin /
Ave Maria by Franz Schubert / Venus by Robbie van Leeuwen /
The Man I Love & I Got Rhythm (from Girl Crazy) by George Gershwin and Ira Gershwin /
Day in the life of a Fool by Luiz Bonfá and Antônio Maria (as Manhã de Carnaval) adapted by Carl Sigman--- --- 1973 Chant and Jubilo by W. Francis McBeth / Jupiter (from The Planets) by Gustav Holst / Ave Maria by Franz Schubert /
This Could Be the Start of Something Big by Steve Allen / Miserlou (Traditional) adapted by Nicholas Roubanis /
Caravan by Juan Tizol / Morning of the Carnival by Luiz Bonfá and Antônio Maria66.100 24th -
Just a different topic.
Corps Finals 1st year Percent most consecutive Santa Clara 47 1972 100% 47 The Cavaliers 45 1972 96% 30 Phantom Regiment 45 1972 96% 45 Blue Devils 45 1971 94% 45 The Cadets 41 1972 87% 29 Madison Scouts 40 1973 87% 29 Carolina Crown 24 1990 83% 16 Blue Coats 31 1974 69% 19 Crossmen 28 1974 62% 16 Blue Knights 24 1972 51% 16 Spirit of Atlanta 20 1977 48% 11 Boston 20 1972 43% 20 Blue Stars 18 1972 38% 8 Troopers 9 1972 19% 4 Colts 8 1972 17% 4 The Academy 1 2001 6% 1 Mandarins 2 1978 5% 2 Seattle Cascades 1 1972 2% 0 Pacific Crest 0 1994 0% 0 Jersey Surf 0 1992 0% 0 -
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I was able to track one corps one year in 2017 for age outs and returns. 150 MM's 20 Age Outs, 25 returning. 105 MM's were new to the corps, don't know how many had marched somewhere else though.
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Thanks. Here is the 3 year age outs plus rank.
Corps 2017 Rank 2017 Ageouts 2018 Rank 2018 Age Outs 2019 Rank 2019 age outs Average Blue Devils 1 60 2 51 1 55 55 Bluecoats 5 55 3 47 2 56 53 Santa Clara Vanguard 2 52 1 47 3 49.5 Carolina Crown 3 44 4 53 4 52 50 Cadets 7 44 7 52 9 48 BlueStars 10 43 8 48 8 45.5 Phantom Regiment 9 44 11 38 12 41 Boston Crusaders 6 37 5 42 6 35 38 Blue Knights 8 33 9 43 7 38 Cavaliers 4 33 6 38 5 50 40 Colts 15 25 14 29 16 27 Academy 14 21 15 30 15 17 23 Madison 12 23 16 26 17 24.5 Crossmen 11 20 12 28 11 24 Troopers 16 22 17 25 18 23.5 Mandarins 13 15 10 26 10 20.5 Spirit 17 23 13 17 13 20 -
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Haven't seen one yet. Does anyone have numbers by the corps?
Crossmen 2023
in DCI World Class Corps Discussions
Posted
Wha explains Crossmen surging after San Antonio? New ending, better cleaning?