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A: Competitive Inertia


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3 hours ago, mingusmonk said:

Those are all past champions.

Yes, while that's true, Madison hadn't won in 13 years. Since their 1975 win, their highest placements were:

1976 - 2nd

1978 - 4th

1981 - 3rd

1985 - 4th

They were 7th in 1986 and 6th in 1987. Therefore, if competitive inertia is a thing they had none of it in 1988. What won them the title was a show that was exceptionally well designed and very popular with the fans - two things that drove the corps to excellence that was perhaps beyond its talent. A great design can result in a less talented corps beating a more talented corps. No, I can not say for sure Madison was less talented than anyone else, but the corps that drew those who wanted to win during that time were BD, SCV, and Garfield. 

If this competitive inertia is true, I would like someone (anyone) to name one corps that should have won their first time placing in the top 5. If having to place in the top 3 first is THE single component of competitive inertia then there must have been just one corps since 1972 who should have won on their first year in the top 5 to back it up. Maybe this will help (going off memory so will likely miss some, but this should be a pretty extensive list):

1973 - Troopers, Madison Scouts

1975 - Blue Devils, 27th Lancers

1976 - Phantom Regiment

1978 - Bridgemen

1979 - Spirit of Atlanta

1982 - Garfield Cadets

1985 - Cavaliers

1986 - Suncoast Sound

1990 - Star of Indiana

1998 - Glassmen

2000 - Boston Crusaders

2005 - Bluecoats

2008 - Carolina Crown

Which one, or more, of these corps should have been champion?

I rest my case.

Edited by henry7184
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1 hour ago, henry7184 said:

If having to place in the top 3 first is THE single component of competitive inertia

CI is way more subtle than that. That was merely the pattern recognized *15 years ago* that still holds up to this day. I only mentioned it to give DCP a clear path to debunking. CI is more about how humans (judges and how they are influenced) come to a decision when corps are close. Wouldn't you give the nod to BD before Boston, just because BD has done it before, zillions of times, and no one will give you grief for doing so? (except Boston homers, of course)

I love your point, though, re (paraphrased): Who didn't win, but should have, when they made Top 5 for the first time?" My answer would be: 5th place is a long way from 1st place. CI doesn't come into play there, necessarily, cuz it's more about human biases that come into play went IT'S CLOSE. As I said IN THE OP: I'm NOT saying it's UNFAIR. I'm saying judging IS VERY DIFFICULT, and I don't blame them, necessarily, for taking shortcuts. CI is more of an "explanation" of why corps of the time (Cavaliers, Cadets, BD) keep filling the Top 3. Cuz they have consistency in leadership; consistency in influence; consistency of Excellence. If a new corps is to break into that, they'll first need to line up ALL OF THAT.

Since the OP, Crown did it. Bluecoats did it. Can't argue about the consistency of each organization, nor influence, no Excellence! IN fact, some of the perennial champions have since BROKEN their chain of leaders, influence, and excellence! And they're practically starting over. (SCV had a reboot, and made it back in 2018!)

Looks like it's time for Boston. It's just not going to happen this year, based on the data. That's all, lol.

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8 minutes ago, Bruckner8 said:

CI is way more subtle than that. That was merely the pattern recognized *15 years ago* that still holds up to this day. I only mentioned it to give DCP a clear path to debunking. CI is more about how humans (judges and how they are influenced) come to a decision when corps are close. Wouldn't you give the nod to BD before Boston, just because BD has done it before, zillions of times, and no one will give you grief for doing so? (except Boston homers, of course)

I love your point, though, re (paraphrased): Who didn't win, but should have, when they made Top 5 for the first time?" My answer would be: 5th place is a long way from 1st place. CI doesn't come into play there, necessarily, cuz it's more about human biases that come into play went IT'S CLOSE. As I said IN THE OP: I'm NOT saying it's UNFAIR. I'm saying judging IS VERY DIFFICULT, and I don't blame them, necessarily, for taking shortcuts. CI is more of an "explanation" of why corps of the time (Cavaliers, Cadets, BD) keep filling the Top 3. Cuz they have consistency in leadership; consistency in influence; consistency of Excellence. If a new corps is to break into that, they'll first need to line up ALL OF THAT.

Since the OP, Crown did it. Bluecoats did it. Can't argue about the consistency of each organization, nor influence, no Excellence! IN fact, some of the perennial champions have since BROKEN their chain of leaders, influence, and excellence! And they're practically starting over. (SCV had a reboot, and made it back in 2018!)

Looks like it's time for Boston. It's just not going to happen this year, based on the data. That's all, lol.

Thanks for the well thought out reply. I think the problem might be I'm just not understanding you. I'm not sure if we are effectively saying the same thing. 

I would HOPE the judges wouldn't just give BD the nod because they've done it a zillion times before. I would hope they would award the best corps on any given night. Otherwise, why are any of us here? Why is their judging to begin with? You may not be saying it's unfair, but if Boston were better than BD and losing to them because the judges would be just giving BD the nod based on reputation and not performance.

I agree, Boston won't win this year, but to me that has everything to do with BD. The road to the title has gone through Concord from 2007 to today. BD has only lost 5 times since, and all were second place finishes. Not only do you have to be good enough to win, you have to be good enough to beat BD. Boston has taken a huge step in the right direction this year. 2017-2019 their guard was really the only championship worthy component of the organization. Now, the design, the brass and the percussion are all there. They are setting themselves up well for the future.

Lastly, Bruckner ain't got nothing on Beethoven, Mozart, or Brahms. 🙂 Is the "8" on there because his 8th symphony is your favorite?

 

Edited by henry7184
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Yeah this show could be the one that cracks this theory after all.  Judges seemed more than willing to tip things Boston's way last night in captions.  

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3 hours ago, KVG_DC said:

Yeah this show could be the one that cracks this theory after all.  Judges seemed more than willing to tip things Boston's way last night in captions.  

We'll see. I've seen gaps like this go from 1.5 to 0.4 get my hopes up only to have them back to 1.5 the next night. Was San Antonio an anomaly or the new norm? Tonight will give us some clue.

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On 7/30/2022 at 8:48 PM, henry7184 said:

Thanks for the well thought out reply. I think the problem might be I'm just not understanding you. I'm not sure if we are effectively saying the same thing. 

I would HOPE the judges wouldn't just give BD the nod because they've done it a zillion times before. I would hope they would award the best corps on any given night. Otherwise, why are any of us here? Why is their judging to begin with? You may not be saying it's unfair, but if Boston were better than BD and losing to them because the judges would be just giving BD the nod based on reputation and not performance.

I agree, Boston won't win this year, but to me that has everything to do with BD. The road to the title has gone through Concord from 2007 to today. BD has only lost 5 times since, and all were second place finishes. Not only do you have to be good enough to win, you have to be good enough to beat BD. Boston has taken a huge step in the right direction this year. 2017-2019 their guard was really the only championship worthy component of the organization. Now, the design, the brass and the percussion are all there. They are setting themselves up well for the future.

Lastly, Bruckner ain't got nothing on Beethoven, Mozart, or Brahms. 🙂 Is the "8" on there because his 8th symphony is your favorite?

 

I've seen BD win guard on Sat night because of the judge multiple times (1986 for one).  Who the judge is has a big effect on those final few tenths.

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I can recite a list of judges certain corps would like to see or not see on Finals night. It gets to the point where you can look at the panel and make your predictions.

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1 minute ago, GREENBLUE said:

I can recite a list of judges certain corps would like to see or not see on Finals night. It gets to the point where you can look at the panel and make your predictions.

Let's talk about that BD-Chumley love fest....

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