A: Competitive Inertia

[Lincoln]

I think the difference between this year and last year is that their are absolutely 4 corps capable of the title at this point with Cavies, Bluecoats & PR lurking just below (assuming Rick V. has a story build in the plan to foist on the unsuspecting mob at the end, like last year). Having said that, I think that PR's storyline this year isn't the same vehicle as last year and its darkness will be harder to make BIG like Spartcus (but no one should count them out!).

IMO, based on what I've seen today with rehearsal videos, I don't see PR outside of the 5th/6th (maybe even 7th position) come finals.

[Tez]

And here they are...I aim to please.

Note that using the scientific method is what I claimed. (Observe, Hypothesis, Test [and back-test if possible...which is certainly the case here], Observe, Modify, Repeat.) So far, so good.

My claim about having to win all captions is a GUESS on how it will have to go down in order to DISPROVE the current CI. Feel free to go to fromthepressbox.com and do your own analysis on the new winners...you'll see what I mean. And it's even HARDER NOW, since there are more quality corps to go around. (It used to be easy to win a lot of captions...it's was the birth of SLOTTING, after all) The spread will have to be there in other captions, in order for Crown to get 5th in another and still win. My entire point on this is to illuminate how difficult it is to beat the CI...that's all. It'll take a herculean effort. A monumental effort. A HISTORIC EFFORT. Sheesh...I get flabbergasted at this sometimes. It's seems so simple. Just pointing out history.

CI is the determining factor in close calls. I'm cool with it. I said that in the OP too. If I were a judge, and it were very close, of course I'd take the easy road and "give it" to the worthy competitor that has demonstrated the metric most consistently in the past. The "loser" will have to be that much better next time. NO PROBLEM! It puts pressure on the new corps to DO SOMETHING NEW AND OBVIOUSLY MORE EXCELLENT. (and even if they do...2nd or 3rd this time...1st next year, assuming they can do it again!) I don't care if the judge is doing it outright consciously...MORE POWER TO THEM. I never claimed they were...I only claimed that I wouldn't blame them if they did. It's equally valid to "give it" to the NEW COMPETITOR, assuming you want to reward FRESHNESS in lieu of SAME OLD. BUT IT'S A LOT EASIER TO MAKE A VERY DIFFICULT DECISION, WHEN THE DECISION HAS BEEN MADE BEFORE. It's human nature, especially when a job is VERY DIFFICULT.

I hope every judge and every DCI official has heard of the CI theory, and took pause when they thought about it. Maybe through reverse psychology, we'll see a pattern of FRESHNESS over the next few years! Heck when the chief judge literally said "judging is more art than science" he made a GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY FOR CROWN!!!! Ya see, that was a cop-out by the judging community, maybe as a response to CI! (HA!) Everyone wants new blood in the hunt. But darnitall, Cavies, BD and Cadets are just so good all the time! Maybe if we judge it using more art (subjectivity) and less sheets (science), we can justify getting some new blood in there!

As far as giving you examples of corps with lower CI have been scored lower, I can't read minds. But I did put one very important claim in the OP about the reverse: When corps with high CI "suck" in a given year (ya know, 3rd or lower, lol), no matter where they place, almost EVERYONE ['cept homers, of course] agrees that they should've been LOWER. Perfect example in 2008. If you read DCP regularly, almost everyone agrees Cavies were too high. That's how I put it in the OP. Now, if you want to say that Crown 2008 had no CI, and therefore got scored lower, go ahead. But my focus is on the higher CI corps, and what they do. It's a very subtle, and important, distinction.

Thank you for your responses. Now you are speaking my language because you seem to imply some gray areas... not just black and white. I wholeheartedly agree that it takes an enormous effort for one of these corps to beat the established corps. As you have said, they have to overcome the years of experience and better recruiting that make the top corps who they are. So I definitely agree on the effort part.... I just don't agree that it takes a vastly superior achievement for them to win. I believe that any judge "bias" toward the established groups, because there is a precedent and it is an "easier decision," would be equalized by the basic human nature of rewarding what is fresh and new. From your post quoted above, it seems like you are kind of agreeing with me on this. Thanks for you analysis. You have made some very good points, I just wanted to clear up some of them in my mind.

[Tez]

As far as giving you examples of corps with lower CI have been scored lower, I can't read minds. But I did put one very important claim in the OP about the reverse: When corps with high CI "suck" in a given year (ya know, 3rd or lower, lol), no matter where they place, almost EVERYONE ['cept homers, of course] agrees that they should've been LOWER. Perfect example in 2008. If you read DCP regularly, almost everyone agrees Cavies were too high. That's how I put it in the OP. Now, if you want to say that Crown 2008 had no CI, and therefore got scored lower, go ahead. But my focus is on the higher CI corps, and what they do. It's a very subtle, and important, distinction.

Oh, I forgot... here's one more thing I wanted to comment on.

Now this is just my own personal opinion, but if I were judging finals in 2008, I would have actually placed the Cavies 2nd over Blue Devils..... and I believe that this show, in an earlier year would have scored even higher. To me, Samurai was in no way inferior to Machine/007/Four Corners etc..., but I think the judges may have scored it lower in 2008 because the basic musical and visual ideas were too similar to what the Cavaliers had done in the past. I mean, did you hear that 2008 hornline... it may have been their best ever. Please note that this is just my own personal theory based on nothing more than my knowledge as a musician and a drum corps fan. Just an alternate point of view to what you have stated.

[Bruckner8]

Competitive Inertia lives on. Crown is now allowed to win.

My preseason picks, based solely on CI were:

1) Crown would NOT win

2) Cadets would win (Wrong)

3) Phantom would be 5th or lower

4) Bloo would be 4-6 again

[Bruckner8]

Competitive Inertia is preserved. Bloo is now allowed to win.

Early in the summer (after the season had enough shows), I picked Bloo to finish in 5th place.

I was wrong. But that was when everyone considered Cadets and Crown to be contenders. In fact, Crown and Cadets both beat Bloo in the early season. CI implies that the corps with the lowest inertia finishes last. (Just like Bloo did in 2007, which I also predicted, and then wrote this theory)

Then Bloo broke Crown's winning streak (July 7, Akron). I predicted this win as well (a bone, home show), and I went on to predict that Bloo would not beat Crown again.

I was wrong again. After all, Crown still had a lot more CI going...we didn't yet know that Crown wasn't a contender after all.

Crown and Bloo traded wins with each other, but the last time Crown beat Bloo was July 22, in Houston. By the following weekend (Murfreesboro and Atlanta) it was clear that neither Crown nor Cadets had contending shows (amazing performances on given nights, but not contenders.)

BD on their own island, and then Bloo and Cavies. Although Bloo seemed to hold CAvies at bay heading into Finals, there was NO WAY BLOO WAS GOING TO BE ALLOWED TO BEAT CAVIES AT FINALS. I then changed my prediction to Bloo in 3rd (never posted on DCP though). Bloo has the lowest CI of the contenders.

And here we are. Bloo in 3rd. Look at the recaps...the spreads...the slots. Bloo's Finals performance was way better than their semis...but their score went DOWN. That's because there needed to be enough "space" between them and Cavies, and still get BD their 98.x. If you have any faith in the spreads (I don't), then the judges seemed to think Bloo was more like Crown than Cavies...lol.

Finally, my main point, which seems to be missed by the bashers of CI: CI only matters when IT'S CLOSE. Cavies and Bloo were very close, so the "tie goes to the runner" (to the corps with the most CI). This makes it easier for the judges to do their difficult jobs (which I stated in the original post, top of this thread). I don't blame the judges for putting Cavies 2nd over Bloo...I'm sure 50% of the people out there agree with the placement, CI or not! My point is that Bloo wasn't OBVIOUSLY superior in the judges' minds, even though the judges seemed to think so a week earlier. Bloo's 2nd place position going into Finals is what I call "a bone." It's a little pat on the head to the new-comer, "good job, boy!" (but CI sarcastically says "this won't last" lol). Some thought Blue Stars should've beat SCV. Umm, nope. They weren't CLEARLY better to be allowed to beat SCV in Finals. They may have been SUBTLY better...but it has to be CLEAR in order to overcome CI.

The future: Madison will be higher than 10th in 2011. The G7 is now firmly established, with Bloo joining the TOP 3 club. Just imagine how difficult it will be for Boston or Blue Stars to get into the TOP 8 in 2011. Neither one of them has any CI, except maybe Blue Stars, since they are another "NewStar." And this assumes SCV and Phantom figure their stuff out...quickly! I think Phantom will be OK. SCV seems to have lost its way on so many levels, it makes this former SCV member sick. As Crown found out, it's even MORE difficult to stay on top. Bloo has to come out with a vengeance next year, or they will be spanked HARD. BD, Cavies and Cadets WILL BE THERE.

The TOP 6 might mean something again. If 2010 Madison is in 10th place, it's a GREAT YEAR FOR DRUM CORPS!

I cannot WAIT for 2011.

[Schickmeister]

Competitive Inertia is preserved. Bloo is now allowed to win.

Early in the summer (after the season had enough shows), I picked Bloo to finish in 5th place.

I was wrong. But that was when everyone considered Cadets and Crown to be contenders. In fact, Crown and Cadets both beat Bloo in the early season. CI implies that the corps with the lowest inertia finishes last. (Just like Bloo did in 2007, which I also predicted, and then wrote this theory)

Then Bloo broke Crown's winning streak (July 7, Akron). I predicted this win as well (a bone, home show), and I went on to predict that Bloo would not beat Crown again.

I was wrong again. After all, Crown still had a lot more CI going...we didn't yet know that Crown wasn't a contender after all.

Crown and Bloo traded wins with each other, but the last time Crown beat Bloo was July 22, in Houston. By the following weekend (Murfreesboro and Atlanta) it was clear that neither Crown nor Cadets had contending shows (amazing performances on given nights, but not contenders.)

BD on their own island, and then Bloo and Cavies. Although Bloo seemed to hold CAvies at bay heading into Finals, there was NO WAY BLOO WAS GOING TO BE ALLOWED TO BEAT CAVIES AT FINALS. I then changed my prediction to Bloo in 3rd (never posted on DCP though). Bloo has the lowest CI of the contenders.

And here we are. Bloo in 3rd. Look at the recaps...the spreads...the slots. Bloo's Finals performance was way better than their semis...but their score went DOWN. That's because there needed to be enough "space" between them and Cavies, and still get BD their 98.x. If you have any faith in the spreads (I don't), then the judges seemed to think Bloo was more like Crown than Cavies...lol.

Finally, my main point, which seems to be missed by the bashers of CI: CI only matters when IT'S CLOSE. Cavies and Bloo were very close, so the "tie goes to the runner" (to the corps with the most CI). This makes it easier for the judges to do their difficult jobs (which I stated in the original post, top of this thread). I don't blame the judges for putting Cavies 2nd over Bloo...I'm sure 50% of the people out there agree with the placement, CI or not! My point is that Bloo wasn't OBVIOUSLY superior in the judges' minds, even though the judges seemed to think so a week earlier. Bloo's 2nd place position going into Finals is what I call "a bone." It's a little pat on the head to the new-comer, "good job, boy!" (but CI sarcastically says "this won't last" lol). Some thought Blue Stars should've beat SCV. Umm, nope. They weren't CLEARLY better to be allowed to beat SCV in Finals. They may have been SUBTLY better...but it has to be CLEAR in order to overcome CI.

The future: Madison will be higher than 10th in 2011. The G7 is now firmly established, with Bloo joining the TOP 3 club. Just imagine how difficult it will be for Boston or Blue Stars to get into the TOP 8 in 2011. Neither one of them has any CI, except maybe Blue Stars, since they are another "NewStar." And this assumes SCV and Phantom figure their stuff out...quickly! I think Phantom will be OK. SCV seems to have lost its way on so many levels, it makes this former SCV member sick. As Crown found out, it's even MORE difficult to stay on top. Bloo has to come out with a vengeance next year, or they will be spanked HARD. BD, Cavies and Cadets WILL BE THERE.

The TOP 6 might mean something again. If 2010 Madison is in 10th place, it's a GREAT YEAR FOR DRUM CORPS!

I cannot WAIT for 2011.

In my best "Good Will Hunting" Boston accent....

"That boy's wicked smaaaht."

[TerriTroop]

What if judging criteria changes for next year?

[FHdork]

"That boy's wicked smaaaht."

You have NO idea HOW smart...none of us do...

[Schickmeister]

"That boy's wicked smaaaht."

You have NO idea HOW smart...none of us do...

Unless you and I share similar pasts...then I do have an excellent idea...more so than most

[Bruckner8]

What if judging criteria changes for next year?

As long as humans have to make subjective decisions, CI will not change. For example, if an "audience applause meter" caption were added, every corps that wants to win will change their shows accordingly, to match the sheets.