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A: Competitive Inertia


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On 8/18/2017 at 9:52 AM, cowtown said:

And, a few years back judges were fiddling with the numbers to keep the spreads close and generate excitement as per DCI. We had some thread on it;  Garfield or a search will provide more info and specifics

 

Pure urban legend.  Decidedly false.

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3 hours ago, garfield said:

Hey Bruckner - 

Having come off a benign thread regarding a judge's viewpoint, it occurred to me:

Can there be "Judging Inertia" related to attainment within the judging ranks?

 

Great question . . . what would that look like?

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  • 11 months later...

Safe for another year! 

As I said last year, at least Boston and SCV were relevant again. When SCV officially announced Michael Gaines, I thought "that's worth at least a point, no matter what dots he writes," and let's be real: This wasn't his A+ stuff. As the season unfolded, it became clear that SCV was going to win, maybe even by July. They were finally "good enough," and the inertia become very strong....so strong, that not a single caption judge was willing to make a call, except Color Guard. Were other corps close to SCV in all other captions (OK, maybe not percussion, lol)? Yes they were...but like CI says "the call is going to go with the corps with the inertia," and SCV had it, starting with last year, the Alumni Corps, Gaines taking over, and a show that now matched the aggressive nature of the brass pedagogy...super smart! The stars aligned, and my home team took full advantage. I'm thrilled to see CI benefit them. I'm thrilled to see them learn "the game."

Should Bloo have been in 2nd? I haven't seen a single person say "no," but I havent interviewed Earth's population. Did positions 1-4 change for the last 4 weeks? I haven't looked, but the entire summer seemed a clear case of slot-matching, lol, comical! I saw shows where Crown should've beat Bloo. I saw shows where Bloo shudda beat BD (almost all of them). Not a single call was made. 

Thankfully, everyone was pretty entertaining and bearably excellent, cuz otherwise, the tour was a waste, competitively.

Boston moved up again. Can they break the glass ceiling? Note that they will have to win before coming in 2nd/3rd for CI to be debunked.

PS: I'm not saying SCV wasn't deserving...they were! But the spreads and caption outcomes were pure CI.

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Hah!

I was thinking about this theory in regard to the fight for finals too.  Someone posted last year's ageouts and Mandarins only had 13 age out last year, given that they were 13th and 'oh so close' I imagine that got a lot of them back for this season to make the historic rush into finals for the Mandarins rather than leaping out to other corps.  That sort of thing creates a surge of forward momentum.  

But then first time Academy came from 15th in 2015 to 11th when they finally made it.  HOWEVER, they had done 13th before, although back in 2007.  I'm not sure who the previous 'first time finalist' was before that.  

So I'm wondering if there's a degree of CI with the cutoff for finals or if it's more volatile.  Perhaps its a matter of degree? Where the drag on CI increases the more you get to the top?

Maybe a new project for you to suss out with numbers for this theory...*grin*

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2 hours ago, Bruckner8 said:

. I saw shows where Bloo shudda beat BD (almost all of them). Not a single call was made. 

 

 I don't know about this one. One word immediately " calls " out to us/judges :....... " Percussion "

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14 minutes ago, KVG_DC said:

But then first time Academy came from 15th in 2015 to 11th when they finally made it.  HOWEVER, they had done 13th before, although back in 2007.  I'm not sure who the previous 'first time finalist' was before that.  

Seattle Cascades in 2002. Since then, Spirit and Troopers both made Finals after long absences, but Cascades and Academy were the last two new Finalists. Interestingly, both Cascades and Academy (so far) were "one and done" in Finals. Can Mandarins break the streak?

Before Cascades I believe the prior first-time Finalist was Boston Crusaders in 1999, and they haven't dropped out since.

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On 8/16/2017 at 10:05 PM, HbRJgdZHsbc said:

You forgot to mention a few extra things needed to win:

  • Stars have to align
  • Fairy dust and happy thoughts
  • Sacrifice three virgins to the drum corps gods (got that done this year!)
  • Oh, and BD has to bring out a substandard product so they'll get 2nd.

I think maybe Mandarins read this post last year.

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On 8/18/2017 at 2:17 PM, HockeyDad said:
  • Bruckner's Competitive Intertia theory + Cowtown's corollary on CI makeup call from the previous year  =  a big win for SCV in 2018!

So it would seem.

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Goes to show you:  the most important shows occur in June. That's where the slotting gets established. And once established, not much changes. Note I didn't say nothing changes. But very little changes post-June. 

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34 minutes ago, HockeyDad said:

Goes to show you:  the most important shows occur in June. That's where the slotting gets established. And once established, not much changes. Note I didn't say nothing changes. But very little changes post-June. 

 A lot of this becomes " settled slotting " long before June too, imo..It begins in earnest in the off season, imo.  So few Corps move up or down more than 2 or 3 placement positions from one season to the next. Not only in the World Class Division, but in Open Class Division as well. There are anomalies to this, but the norm is that 90% of all Corps stay within 2 placement positions from one season to the next. One has to look at a longer history, ie 3-4 years, to see more placement  movement trends up or down with all these Corps. Even here, despite rather significant marcher turnovers with all these Corps after each and every season, a significant majority of Corps stay pretty much where they are placement wise throughout an entire decade or more. There are explainable and understandable reasons for such placement " inertias " for the vast majority of these World Class and Open Class Corps too, imo, but this is beyond the scope of this thread for discussion, really..

Edited by BRASSO
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