2009 Could be Carolina Crown's year

[mn trumpter guy]

I'm going to give you another chance on this one because I'm on your side and believe in CI.

I do not get from your theory that SCV and MS have a better chance at winning WITH THE LEVEL OF SHOWS THEY HAD THIS YEAR. If they have a show at an equal level to CC and the three are in 1-3 places THEN SCV and MS are more likely to win. Correct?

That would make sense to me.

Unfortunately I think we may be getting to in-depth in what seems to me to be a fairly simple concept- corps that have placed well in the past are given the benefit of the doubt- hence why a show that may or may not be as good as another show is placed higher- the judges (subconciously, I am sure- no one would screw someone over on purpose I hope!) give a higher score based on the name and the history associated with it.

I don't know about the details that are currently being discussed- all I know is that there seems to me to be evidence of this in the last few years especially. I won't go into any more detail, because I honestly don't want to come off as flaming corps, but I konw that there have definitely been shows that didn't seem to me to deserve the place they got.

EDIT: It seems to be a matter of a team being 'given' a place, as opposed to 'earning' or 'taking' it- something I know my staff talks about all the time, because we are not a corps that are thought to deserve a high ranking all the time.

Edited August 29, 2008 by mn trumpter guy

[Bruckner8]

I'm going to give you another chance on this one because I'm on your side and believe in CI.

I do not get from your theory that SCV and MS have a better chance at winning WITH THE LEVEL OF SHOWS THEY HAD THIS YEAR.

CI doesn't care about year to year, in the way you're trying to compare. Any sane, objective person, watching DCI the last 3 years ONLY, would have to say "Crown has a better shot at winning next year than Madison or SCV."

I get that.

But I would pipe up and say "Do you know, that in the 36 yr history of DCI, no corps has ever won w/o first placing 2nd or 3rd previously? Do you realize that Crown hasn't yet done that?"

Hoepfully, the said sane person would say "Wow! Has SCV or Madison placed 2nd or 3rd before?"

ANS: Yup, and they both went on to win a few times.

"Oops, doesn't look good for Crown then, even though they've been pretty successful recently. Maybe I should look at other corps that have place 4th, and never won, and see what happened to them."

ANS: It ain't always pretty.

If they have a show at an equal level to CC and the three are in 1-3 places THEN SCV and MS are more likely to win. Correct?

Yes, CI would DEFINITELY conclude that. Trust me, I hope it happens! I'm pulling for Crown to make Top 3 next year! Just think how awesome they'll be if they do! (or how crappy everyone else will be...it's a possibility...see 2006.)

CI predicts they will not win in 2009. It doesn't make any claim other than that.

My personal hunch (which may become part of CI in the future) is that Crown will go DOWN next year.

My personal hope is that they make top 3, because if they do, it'll be a good year from drum corps.

Finally, if one really ponders the subtleties of CI beyond "One first must get 2nd or 3rd before winning," one shoudl be able to use CI to predict a Cadets win in 2009. Doncha think Hopkins knows this? By announcing everything so far in advance? (even before 2008 was over!) If someone "gets" CI, it's the CI Master Himself, GH. Hype is an incredibly important factor in CI, especailly is it relates to the elite.

[festive]

When I saw them competing against Regiment this summer, I couldn't help but give this a lot of thought. Here's a great drum and bugle corps...classy on the field and off and highly competitive. Strong in all respects now, but rough and tumble enough to earn my respect over the years. They have picked themselves up and dusted themselves off, reinvented themselves with everything pretty strong across the board (guard/brass being a highlight) and it's apparent that they mean business. Neat shows that are appealing to fans and judges alike; people are really excited when they are on the bill for the show. This is a corps that has a buzz going, but they've been working toward it...it's a momentum thing. If they believe that the win is inevitable, then maybe it is.

This summer, I firmly believed that Regiment would win only if they thought it was inevitable--that it WOULD happen. They practiced like winners, sure, but it's something even more than that. We talk about competition, but corps compete against themselves. They can, IMO, defeat themselves, more than any other group can. Semifinals, I dunno, the members just looked different. They looked to me like they had it in their minds, even if maybe they didn't actually believe it happened after it did. That part doesn't matter. What matters is that they were ready to compete for it. They did not defeat themselves.

Is Crown ready to really compete for it? Yup. They did this year, IMO. Just more steam needed toward the end...

I've had the pleasure of speaking with some of their volunteer folks, and I've always been impressed with their approach. They seem very member-focused and are about trying to give their members, first and foremost, an excellent experience for their drum corps dollar. But they are knocking on the proverbial door now, so who knows...they're a great group, though, and I wish them nothing but luck!

[Tez]

CI doesn't care about year to year, in the way you're trying to compare. Any sane, objective person, watching DCI the last 3 years ONLY, would have to say "Crown has a better shot at winning next year than Madison or SCV."

I get that.

But I would pipe up and say "Do you know, that in the 36 yr history of DCI, no corps has ever won w/o first placing 2nd or 3rd previously? Do you realize that Crown hasn't yet done that?"

Hoepfully, the said sane person would say "Wow! Has SCV or Madison placed 2nd or 3rd before?"

ANS: Yup, and they both went on to win a few times.

"Oops, doesn't look good for Crown then, even though they've been pretty successful recently. Maybe I should look at other corps that have place 4th, and never won, and see what happened to them."

ANS: It ain't always pretty.

Yes, CI would DEFINITELY conclude that. Trust me, I hope it happens! I'm pulling for Crown to make Top 3 next year! Just think how awesome they'll be if they do! (or how crappy everyone else will be...it's a possibility...see 2006.)

CI predicts they will not win in 2009. It doesn't make any claim other than that.

My personal hunch (which may become part of CI in the future) is that Crown will go DOWN next year.

My personal hope is that they make top 3, because if they do, it'll be a good year from drum corps.

Finally, if one really ponders the subtleties of CI beyond "One first must get 2nd or 3rd before winning," one shoudl be able to use CI to predict a Cadets win in 2009. Doncha think Hopkins knows this? By announcing everything so far in advance? (even before 2008 was over!) If someone "gets" CI, it's the CI Master Himself, GH. Hype is an incredibly important factor in CI, especailly is it relates to the elite.

This logic is so flawed. 36 years is not a long time when trying to come up with theory that states something is almost absolute. I mean, what if one of the top 3 this year would have not had as good as year as they did, and Crown placed higher than them? (This could have very easily have happened, and everyone knows that). If Crown performed the exact same show on finals night and received third instead of fourth, you say they would have a better chance at winning next year? Really? Just think about that.

[Bruckner8]

This logic is so flawed. 36 years is not a long time when trying to come up with theory that states something is almost absolute. I mean, what if one of the top 3 this year would have not had as good as year as they did, and Crown placed higher than them? (This could have very easily have happened, and everyone knows that). If Crown performed the exact same show on finals night and received third instead of fourth, you say they would have a better chance at winning next year? Really? Just think about that.

OK, I'm thinking about it...hmmmm....done. Yes, really. Next...

(Ask yourself this: Why DIDN'T Crown get 3rd this year? I have lots of thoughts on it...I'd like yours, and others.)

[salad315]

This logic is so flawed. 36 years is not a long time when trying to come up with theory that states something is almost absolute. I mean, what if one of the top 3 this year would have not had as good as year as they did, and Crown placed higher than them? (This could have very easily have happened, and everyone knows that). If Crown performed the exact same show on finals night and received third instead of fourth, you say they would have a better chance at winning next year? Really? Just think about that.

Err...one of the top 3 already had an bad year... and crown still only got 4th. Cavies had one of their weakest shows of the decade (i'd put it just above 2007 though) and crown couldnt beat them. For crown to medal next year, you need one of the perennial top 3 to be VERY off, and you need phantom to drop back down to 5th place territory. It could happen, i just wouldnt bet on it. If i had to put odds on who wins...

Cadets 3:1

BD 4:1

Phantom 5:1

Cavies 6:1

BIG GAP

Crown 25:1

etc...

SCV 60:1

Bloo 75:1

after that...no chance really...

I didnt actually do the math to see if this makes any sense at all, but thats about how I see it. That doesnt mean im predicting this order for finals...

[thePerfectbuzz]

We can disagree on Crown's design.

Competitive Inertia is PROGRESS. Progress in obtaining and retaining highly qualified staff. Progress in retaining members, and improving their abilities. Progress in recruiting new, more highly-talented members. Progress in designing better shows. Progress in executing more difficult shows better. Progress in moving up the competitive ranks. It's PROGRESS.

The fact that no one has won who was not previously in the top 3 is COINCIDENCE!!!!

I mean, come on, the fact that the OP is using Pioneer to try and back up his weak argument is proof right there. Of course, Pioneer isn't going to win next year. Of course, no one in their right mind would think that. It would be impossible for Pioneer to improve THAT much over one season.

Winning finals is tough. Beating BD, Cadets AND Cavies on finals night is tough. They are were they are for many reasons - many which I stated above. Phantom did it this year, and that's great. It has nothing to do with competitive inertia. It has to do with, AGAIN, those things mentioned above.

I'm sorry, but 1988 Scouts thwart the whole competitive inertia theory in a single blow. I think we had two members who were in the 1981 corps. Every other vet had only placed 4th at the highest (1985). We were coming off mid-level seasons (1986 and 1987). No one "in their right mind" would have ever thought coming into the 1988 season that we would have a snowballs chance in hell of winning. But, we did. We had talent. We had great staff. We had a well-designed show. We executed that show on a very high level. It had nothing to do with this so-called competitive inertia. The pieces just fell into place. 1989 was extremely different.

Right there- you're theories dead. Peace out!

wow, way to have an argument by yourself. I never once said or defended anything about competitive inertia. So your whole post was kinda like you chasing your tail. my post was strictly about the pure fact Crown was not gonna win finals night come finals night. It had nothing to do with any previous seasons. I talked about how the 2008 season progressed (just that season) and simply said thats why they weren't going to win no matter how well they performed. I don't doubt going into any season (starting in november) that every corps has a shot at winning, providing they have the staff, the talent, and the show design.....but my post was come finals week, there is only a handful of corps pertaining to that season that have a legit shot at winning.

I don't know what was going through your mind when you read my post.

[corpsband]

OK, I'm thinking about it...hmmmm....done. Yes, really. Next...

(Ask yourself this: Why DIDN'T Crown get 3rd this year? I have lots of thoughts on it...I'd like yours, and others.)

REALLY Good question....

but...

Here's something consider. Doesn't CI make an implicit assumption that the Corps remain the same year to year (for eg.) Cadets 2008=Cadets 2007=Cadets 2xxx=Cadets 199x=Cadets 198x etc... Performers constantly change, show design constantly changes, staff frequently changes. And the chemistry (if you will - the mix of all those factors relative to each other and relative corps-to-corps) is changing even during the season. Does CI claim that only the NAME matters?

[Matt_S]

If i had to put odds on who wins...

Cadets 3:1

BD 4:1

Phantom 5:1

Cavies 6:1

BIG GAP

Crown 25:1

etc...

SCV 60:1

Bloo 75:1

after that...no chance really...

I didnt actually do the math to see if this makes any sense at all, but thats about how I see it. That doesnt mean im predicting this order for finals...

That'd give the field about 3:1 odds! 2009 could be an exciting year!

[Bruckner8]

REALLY Good question....

but...

Here's something consider. Doesn't CI make an implicit assumption that the Corps remain the same year to year (for eg.) Cadets 2008=Cadets 2007=Cadets 2xxx=Cadets 199x=Cadets 198x etc... Performers constantly change, show design constantly changes, staff frequently changes. And the chemistry (if you will - the mix of all those factors relative to each other and relative corps-to-corps) is changing even during the season. Does CI claim that only the NAME matters?

Thank you. THIS is how to discuss CI. I love your question, cuz it makes me think about CI in different ways, and see how others have thought about it. I suppose you are right when you say there is an implicit assumption that things remain the same, in a way. That's because those top 3 have had the same leadership (stated in CI). That leadership hires (and fires) the right people at the right time, without hesitation. Crown is getting there, obviously!

When you think Cadets...you think Hoppy.

When you think Blue Devils...you think Gibbs.

When you think Cavies...you think Fiedler (oops...rebuild).

When you think Madison...you think Scott Stuart (oops...rebuild).

See where I'm going? Stability, a consistent voice, is very important.

If every organization overturned, and no one currently doing drum corps was hired to fill every spot (including director), THEN you might have a new champion.

more later...