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Hostrauser's DCI Rankings - Week 1 (06/28/10)


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Do you also do rankings for the NCAA BCS? So how does a corps who has had one show, scored a 75, get a 74.75??? You use terms like "appeared", "would have". I just don't get this ranking.

Personally, thank you hostrauser, I look forward to these every week, and 7567BC,

just go with the flow or refer to Rule #9. :rolleyes:

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You're welcome, all who enjoy the rankings. I enjoy doing them because I have that touch-of-Rainman numbers thing going on inside my head.

Also, yes, there will be Open Class rankings in the future. There just weren't enough performances to make it worthwhile this past week.

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Rankings seem fair right now, but, this early is like ranking the NFL during the pre-season. It will be impossible to really get a true feel on the corps until the big shows in Texas. I think that there will be a lot of shakeups from 3rd to 9th and 11th place to 14th. Any corps from about 8th and above (in this poll) could find themselves watching from the stands on finals this year! (NFL parity had invaded Drum Corps!) I still think that we will see both Madison and Troopers in finals this year. :rolleyes:

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First off, the annual disclaimers...

My rankings are designed to look more at trends than fluke performances. A corps dropping three spots at one show might be a fluke performance. A corps dropping three spots in my rankings (considering all their shows that week) probably isn't.

These rankings are compiled based on what each corps did score or would have scored on every day of the preceding week (Monday through Sunday). THIS IS NOT A STRAIGHT SCORE COMPARISON. Go to the Blue Knights' page if you want that. THIS IS NOT BASED SOLELY ON EACH CORPS' MOST RECENT SCORE. Just because a corps had the highest score in all of DCI on Saturday does not necessarily mean they will be at the top of the rankings (particularly if they scored lower earlier in the week). SHOW SCORES FROM A PARTICULAR DAY CAN BE ADJUSTED. Judging inflation is taken into account, if the numbers bear it out (see also: the infamous "west coast bump"). For example, Corps A at show X on Friday outscores both Corps B and Corps C (who were at show Y on Friday) by more than a point. However, on Saturday when they all perform together at show Z, Corps B is 1.0 ahead of Corps A and Corps C is only 0.1 behind. Chances are show X's scores were either too high or show Y's scores were too low, and the scores might be adjusted for ALL corps at either show.

The formula is based on seven-days worth of performances. On days when a corps does not perform, they will receive a "ghost score" based on what the other corps they had been in direct competition with most recently scored.

All scores are weighted. Real scores are weighted 100%, ghost scores are weighted at 50%. The two days each week with the most corps performances (Thr-Sun) are weighted 200%. "Super-regionals" like San Antonio and Allentown are (will be) weighted 300%.

These rankings are NOT a prediction of future performance, nor are they representative of a corps' entire season of work. They are stand-alone rankings based upon the most recent week; so programming changes in shows during the course of the season can lead to "hot" and "cold" streaks in the rankings.

I'm not complaining, but just trying to understand. What I don't understand is how you can use something which is based on a mathematical basis and then use subjective criteria "judging inflation taken into account" and non mathematical things like "SHOW SCORES FROM A PARTICULAR DAY CAN BE ADJUSTED" to rationalize the outcomes and results. The most basic example I can use is BAC. Their score of 75 was already inflated by .25 based on your criteria?

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Ya, thanks for doing these again this year. Honestly, this is probably one of the better ranking systems that we have, considering it takes things like statistics into account, which is really important since we have different judging panels all over the country and need some way to balance that.

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I'm not complaining, but just trying to understand. What I don't understand is how you can use something which is based on a mathematical basis and then use subjective criteria "judging inflation taken into account" and non mathematical things like "SHOW SCORES FROM A PARTICULAR DAY CAN BE ADJUSTED" to rationalize the outcomes and results. The most basic example I can use is BAC. Their score of 75 was already inflated by .25 based on your criteria?

If I'm understanding correctly, part of his formula is taking a corps' actual score in relation to the competition around them and factoring what it would be if they had been competing for the entire week.

For example: Corps A has been competing the entire week, scoring 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, averaging at 76. Corps B only competed on the last day, scoring 77. Would you then assume that the relative average of Corps B's performances, had they performed the entire week, would have been 77? That's higher than the average of the corps that two-pointed them on the last day, who did actually compete the entire week.

So in that regard, I can understand why just offering the 75 to Boston in his rankings would be inflated in comparison to the other corps' averages. Either way, would their position in his rankings have changed?

I could be way off base here, but I think people are taking this way too seriously either way (not necessarily you, Liahona - just adding my two cents to your post). There could very easily be a dozen other people on these forums with their own rankings formulas. I say let the man have fun with numbers. :rolleyes:

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Good analysis, MusicMan.

I'm not complaining, but just trying to understand. What I don't understand is how you can use something which is based on a mathematical basis and then use subjective criteria "judging inflation taken into account" and non mathematical things like "SHOW SCORES FROM A PARTICULAR DAY CAN BE ADJUSTED" to rationalize the outcomes and results.

Well, let's see if I can give a basic example...

Corps A and Corps B compete at the same show on Thursday. Corps A scores 75.5 and Corps B scores 75.0.

Corps A and Corps B compete at the same show on Friday. Corps A scores 76.0 and Corps B scores 77.0.

Corps A and Corps B compete at different shows on Saturday. Corps A scores 76.5 and Corps B scores 73.0.

What happened to Corps B? Did they have major rewrites? Did they just completely fall apart? If all the other corps at that show "maintained" reasonable scores based on prior performances, Corps B is probably stuck with that 73.0 in my rankings. However, if EVERY corps at that show suffered a 3-4 point drop from their prior show, I'm more likely to take judging inflation/devaluation into account and adjust Corps B's score up to, say, 76.0 for that day.

Also, if 20 corps were at the Friday show, but only 6 at each of the Saturday shows, the Friday show will carry more weight in the formula. Thus, the straight average of Corps A's scores (76.0) vs. Corps B's scores (75.0) won't match up with the rankings, as the rankings would show only a 0.5 win for Corps A on Saturday, and Corps B's 1.0 point victory on Friday would carry more influence.

The most basic example I can use is BAC. Their score of 75 was already inflated by .25 based on your criteria?

Again, you're only looking at one day, not the entire week. If Boston scores 75.0 on Saturday, it's likely that they would have scored LESS than 75 on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, had they competed on those days.

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If Boston scores 75.0 on Saturday, it's likely that they would have scored LESS than 75 on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, had they competed on those days.

For giggles, here's how Boston's formula for this week worked (every corps has a different formula, depending on which days of the week they performed):

SUN 6/27: 75.50 * 1.00

+SAT 6/26: 75.00 * 2.00

+FRI 6/25: 74.55 * 1.00

+THR 6/24: 75.55 * 0.50

+WED 6/23: 74.25 * 0.50

+TUE 6/22: 73.75 * 0.50

+MON 6/21: 73.05 * 0.50

=SUBTOTAL: 448.350

/WEIGHT VALUE: 6.0

=NET RANKING: 74.725

~ROUNDED (FINAL) RANKING: 74.75

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