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Top 12 Prediction Minn, MN July 16, 2011


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We don't Gava! :smile:

I'm used to seeing these predictions with Boston in the 11th spot..so it doesn't bug me one bit...it's only Minn and not Indy anyway...of course that's why these predictions don't mean all that much either...

You're right, of course. I remember throughout the first half of 2009, many posters on DCP had BAC in 11-14th.....and the corps came in 7th! I was just pointing out the fact

that some folks, in their uber-exuberance to promote their corps, ignore spreads and math altogether. As BozzlyB points out at least once a day on here, spreads are the only reliable indicator of where everyone stands, and as of right now, the spreads are telling me BAC is nowhere near 11th.

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1. Cavaliers 2. Carolina Crown 3. Cadets 4. Blue Devils 5. Phantom Regiment 6. Bluecoats 7. Santa Clara Vanguard 8. Madison Scouts 9. Blue Star 10. Blue Knights 11. Boston Crusaders 12. Spirit of Atlanta. I think 5-8 is going to be very close! I wouldn't be surprised how it turns out either way! Everyone is on their game, it's just who brings it that night!

Edited by Flguardman
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IMO I do not think Boston or Madison has a thing to worry about they both have crowd pleasing shows as always. I think there will be others that will be surprised. There has been others that have gotten over average jump in scores that are starting to settle back down. Should be very interesting at the end to see how all this shakes out.

Right now, my reading of this thread tells me that with the exception of Spirit, the consensus of people on here is that no Corps in Minny will move up or down more than 2 placement positions from last year's Finals. If thats true, they'll be no real surprises in placements up or down. Maybe come August it might be different. But right now the judges seem to be playing it close to the vest, and thats why many fans predictions look remarkably like last year. Its understandable, imo.

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I understand your logic .... but you still have to take into account that the spread will open to make room for other corps that may or may not be better than Boston. I'm also of the opinion that this is the time of year where the Staff of Scouts are going to make a difference in the last month surge. I've seen what Mason and team can do at this time of year ... and it's now that time of year. I also feel that Bostons product is on the verge of wearing thin. It's a nice book and good source material .. but the writing just isn't at the same level.

That said, I think it's important to realize that this is also the time of year where execution starts to come more into play. Outscoring other corps because of show design and writing only keeps you propped up for so long. I realize this can be read as a contradiction. So let me be clear. Boston has some nice writing that has served them well. They execute very well. But is the writing of the show top 8 caliber? NO. It just isn't. That's going to start hurting them right about now.

For corps like Gmen who were doing well against Troopers and the like ... the will now start to drop because the execution just isn't there. Same said for Coats .. and we're already seeing them lose captions to Boston and lower corps for that very reason ....... they're not executing. Food for thought...

Doesn't matter, everyone else is doing the same thing. Unless Madison makes MAJOR changes they're unlikely to have much effect on score. Changing a couple notes and a few drill sets here and there does almost nothing. Madison in top 7 is extremely unlikely at this point. They have shown no tendency to gain on any of the corps currently holding those spots, in fact on the contrary, Blue Stars (with major changes recently and a dirty show because of it) have closed to within .4 after starting the season down by over two points. Boston IMO is a corps Scouts should continue to worry about as well. Madison has a great show that is entertaining as hell, but the reality is that to jump up and compete through the END of the season with the corps they want to beat (finals is in August remember, not JUNE) they need more demand across the board, and they have to perform it cleanly. They will max out too soon, been saying it all year.

What I think will happen.

Blue Stars will top Madison for the first time this year on Friday, (and the Sconks will say it is because of home field advantage :rolleyes: )

On Saturday...

1. Cavies

2. Cadets

3. BD

4. Crown (.1 from BD)

5. Regiment

6. Bloo

7. SCV

8. Blue Stars

9. Madison

10.Boston (.5 from Madison)

11.BK

12.Spirit

Blue Stars will compete for 6-7 by end of season, Madison will be lucky to hold on to 9th and I see Boston taking that spot, possibly 8th depending on SCV. Madison has a great show, I just don't think the membership is capable of handling the demand necessary to punch through and they've designed the show based on the talent level, like they should have.

(moving to Alaska for a month to avoid confrontational Sconks showing up at my door.....) :ph34r:

Edited by BozzlyB
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Anything can happen for sure. I'm not showing any bias here at all. I'm going based on the shows and staff. I think 5th for Scouts might be a stretch at this point, but that's where I see them in the end. They're only 2 pts out from Coats at this point ... and we all know a 2 pt jump can happen.

Just because I put in a 5pt spread doesn't mean those two corps are 5 pts apart in reality. I just know how judges scores add up at regionals. They WILL make room where they see fit. It's just a matter of where they put that room .....

So the current spread between Scouts and Bloo is relevant, but the current spread between Scouts and Boston isn't? Hmmmm....... :rock:

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You're right, of course. I remember throughout the first half of 2009, many posters on DCP had BAC in 11-14th.....and the corps came in 7th! I was just pointing out the fact

that some folks, in their uber-exuberance to promote their corps, ignore spreads and math altogether. As BozzlyB points out at least once a day on here, spreads are the only reliable indicator of where everyone stands, and as of right now, the spreads are telling me BAC is nowhere near 11th.

Just for the record ...... I had BAC in 6th in 09 :P

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So the current spread between Scouts and Bloo is relevant, but the current spread between Scouts and Boston isn't? Hmmmm....... :rock:

I think spreads are only relevant to show placement in head to head situations. When everyone meets up, historically those spreads go out the window.

Currently Bloo has a 2pt spread on Scouts. Scouts have a .5 spread on BAC. The way I read recaps .. anything within 3 pts can shift on a nightly basis. .1 to .2 across the boards is a 2 pt shift. It's not that big of a deal.

Edited by supersop
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I love how everyone is comfortable leaving BK in 11th. They haven't faced Madison, BAC or Blue Stars so it's easy to do that, but they're a wildcard! In Loveland they beat SCV in brass, color guard and ensemble vis. They also beat Phantom in drums that night as well!! I just say... There will be some surprises and I think BK will be part of that!! They're a little secret agent this week, only 1 show and a full week to add and clean!!:) Gonna be fun!!

Wes P

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1st. Minnesota Brass

2nd. Tornado :), possible repeat of last years.

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