2013 Predictions

[cgmomma]

While I do give Crossmen their due credit because they were truly ON Friday night, and I do concede that Blue Stars had some issues they were not able to overcome in time, one thing I can not swallow is the score/placement that the Blue Stars color guard received that night. To use wesleyrp's words "a scan of Twitter comments and even the semis thread here will reveal what most people thought of their performance that night", that guard was on fire Friday. I was there Thursday, Friday and Saturday, sitting with other color guard instructors and judges. Sorry, Blue Stars was NOT a 12th place color guard. They were 9th the night before (with a weaker performance than Friday) and have ranked as high as 6th or 7th (if memory serves) throughout the season. THAT would have put them into finals.

[3rdCoast]

DOH.... How did u know I love the Simpsons.... I'm a fan if drum corps period and kids pushing the arts. I have a corps that I marched and love so what?!? Crossmen made finals, pure and simple. They deserved it. Blue Stars had a bitter pill at the end of the season, while I feel for them, even their die hard fans like BozzlyB are accepting it. As for the numbers... This is not new. Madison '88 went to Europe in like 7th. The came back and made a giant push to win the title. Likewise BD in same year was undefeated, the got 3rd finals night. Performances are rewarded based off the corps levels at Championship Week. Do you want judges to keep spiral notebooks of head to head matchups so that they can "keep all the shows and spreads in mind?" That's not the way it works. BStars were good this year, they came up short, it happens.

Wes P

Golden Boy:)

Wes, you need to go back an check your history. We were undefeated (with one tie with Phantom Regiment) when we left for Europe on June 20th. Our first show back on July 9th we lost by .4 to Phantom Regiment and still were in front of Cavies and Star. The low point of the summer was finishing 4th at DCM Championships but after that we made steady progress trading wins with Regiment and Star, closing the gap on BD and were within a .4 of SCV at the last show before DCI. This urban myth about us coming out of nowhere (or directly from the airport since we spent the "whole summer" in Europe)to win DCI is funny. Just wanted to set the record straight.

[Kamarag]

I thought Blue Stars were over-scored by points in Allentown. The writing was on the wall then, and we all knew if Crossmen got hot they'd have a legitimate shot.

[wesleyrp]

Wes, you need to go back an check your history. We were undefeated (with one tie with Phantom Regiment) when we left for Europe on June 20th. Our first show back on July 9th we lost by .4 to Phantom Regiment and still were in front of Cavies and Star. The low point of the summer was finishing 4th at DCM Championships but after that we made steady progress trading wins with Regiment and Star, closing the gap on BD and were within a .4 of SCV at the last show before DCI. Just wanted to set the record straight.

:) Fair enough.... Was basing my info off a Madison Alum who introduced me to drum corps with Madison 88. Sorry for the mix up, but BD was undefeated and you guys and SCV did surge which is still the point:) thanks for the correction man.

Wes P

[barigirl78]

While I do give Crossmen their due credit because they were truly ON Friday night, and I do concede that Blue Stars had some issues they were not able to overcome in time, one thing I can not swallow is the score/placement that the Blue Stars color guard received that night. To use wesleyrp's words "a scan of Twitter comments and even the semis thread here will reveal what most people thought of their performance that night", that guard was on fire Friday. I was there Thursday, Friday and Saturday, sitting with other color guard instructors and judges. Sorry, Blue Stars was NOT a 12th place color guard. They were 9th the night before (with a weaker performance than Friday) and have ranked as high as 6th or 7th (if memory serves) throughout the season. THAT would have put them into finals.

It is true that CG scores can be subjective and inconsistent from judge to judge. I have numbers for six of the Crossmen/Blue Stars match-ups prior to Indy and in four contests, Crossmen beat the Blue Stars in CG. In two, the Blue Stars beat the Crossmen. BS did beat the Crossmen in that caption at semis. If it means anything, Mike Lentz had put the Crossmen over BS in the previous two shows he judged both corps. So, it was a small turnaround for him.

[cgmomma]

It is true that CG scores can be subjective and inconsistent from judge to judge. I have numbers for six of the Crossmen/Blue Stars match-ups prior to Indy and in four contests, Crossmen beat the Blue Stars in CG. In two, the Blue Stars beat the Crossmen. BS did beat the Crossmen in that caption at semis. If it means anything, Mike Lentz had put the Crossmen over BS in the previous two shows he judged both corps. So, it was a small turnaround for him.

I actually wasn't comparing them just with the Crossmen. I have had trouble with many contests along the line, especially those I saw live mid-July and then again finals week. Although Crossmen is clean, I do not believe their, and many others, vocabulary/cleanliness ratio is above the Blue Stars.

[BaritoneJake]

Partly what I hope to happen, primarily what I expect to happen.

1) Blue Devils - There's just no reason to expect anyone else to win.

2) Santa Clara Vanguard - I feel like they're going to rise even more

3) Carolina Crown - We'll see if they prove me wrong. I'm worried that since 2012 didn't win they'll just keep writing the show harder and harder until it breaks through, rather than more creative and innovative design.

4) Cadets - An off year by odd-year standards for the Cadets

5) Phantom Regiment

6) The Cavaliers - I really can't see them being down two years in a row. We'll see.

7) Bluecoats - Another good year, but the top corps are just too good

8) Madison Scouts - Maybe an early show announcement can lead to some more momentum, the crowd is just waiting for this corps to break in

9) Boston Crusaders - I'm surprised they were as high as they were anyway

10) Blue Knights

11) Blue Stars - I feel like they deserved this spot last year, I don't believe they as much credit as they deserve

12) Crossmen

13) Spirit of Atlanta - Not buying into their hype yet. Maybe they can prove me wrong, since everyone else loves them it could just be me

14) Glassmen

15) Pacific Crest - Definitely breaking out of the lower tier of world class

16) Academy

17) Colts

(Oregon Crusaders) - Hopefully they get more recognition for what they do. It's a shame Open Class finals had 1/17th of the attendance of World Class finals. And great performance does not mean they should jump to world class, they may not have the financial structure in place to go from Oregon through Texas and Atlanta on their way to Indy, being Open Class is working just fine for them.

18) Jersey Surf - We'll see where their show design goes next year, I hope they can keep the charm from the Bridgemen while keeping their own identity.

19) Troopers - Too much talent to drop further, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them beat Surf or challenge the Colts

(Blue Devils B)

(Vanguard Cadets)

20) Teal Sound - I hope they can resurge again, I always enjoy these shows.

21) Mandarins

22) Seattle Cascades

23) Pioneer

(Rest of open)

Edited August 17, 2012 by BaritoneJake

[Martin I. Zing]

Your score at the Dublin show for the Blue Stars is wrong. They got an 82.2 and not a 85.45

barigirl78 is correct. I made a mistake in listing the Blue Stars score for the Dublin show. It should read 82.2. Thank you for bringing it to our attention. I went back and made the correction to the original posting. It does not change the results. The Blue Stars still won all 7 head-to-head meetings with the Crossmen this summer until the Semi-Finals. And more telling than anything, --as I pointed out, we are being asked to believe the Crossmen's "product" moved up over 2 and a half points in 5 days WITHOUT help between August 5 and 10. I'm waiting for someone to site a similar example of any other corps that had this kind of miraculous improvement in 2012?

Plain and simple, the Blue Stars got screwed. And along with the Troopers, they are the two corps who are continually treated with No Respect. So back to the original question; my prediction for 2013? I would not be surprised if both corps folded or decided to sit the season out.

Martin I. Zing

--Retired

Edited August 16, 2012 by Martin I. Zing

[barigirl78]

barigirl78 is correct. I made a mistake in listing the Blue Stars score for the Dublin show. It should read 82.2. Thank you for bringing it to our attention. I went back and made the correction to the original posting. It does not change the results. The Blue Stars still won all 7 head-to-head meetings with the Crossmen this summer until the Semi-Finals.

Why is it so hard to believe? The Blue Stars got beaten by the Spirit of Atlanta for 19 head-to-head meetings until they beat them at the Pittsburgh show. Spirit's advantage over those 19 shows was a median of 1.9 points. If Blue Stars, at a given show, can surge, why can't another corps?

And more telling than anything, --as I pointed out, we are being asked to believe the Crossmen's "product" moved up over 2 and a half points in 5 days WITHOUT help between August 5 and 10. I'm waiting for someone to site a similar example of any other corps that had this kind of miraculous improvement in 2012?

Every corps has their own pattern of development over a season. Some start stronger and peak early. Others start slow and have a surge at the end. I would say that the Blue Knights are another corps that had a surge at the end. They started well behind Spirit and ended up 2 points ahead of them. The Phantom Regiment had a nice surge to move ahead of Cadets.

The Crossmen had several periods during the season of rapid increase followed by slow growth. I have the scores on my computer at home and their ending scores were actually below the linear trend for the entire season. The Crossmen and the Blue Stars both started out with scores that were in the 62's and ended with scores in the 84's. That's pretty much the same growth over the season.

I will say, because I'm familiar with the Crossmen behind-the-scenes that they kept changing their ending and didn't settle into the ending they presented in Indianapolis until just before Allentown. The days of practice in Indianapolis helped them really improve it.

Plain and simple, the Blue Stars got screwed. And along with the Troopers, they are the two corps who are continually treated with No Respect. So back to the original question; my prediction for 2013? I would not be surprised if both corps folded or decided to sit the season out.

Martin I. Zing

--Retired

There's probably nothing anyone can say to convince you otherwise.

But, I hope the corps itself doesn't feel that way. Because any corps that gets it in their head that they have little control over their own destiny is bound to decline. If they actually believe it was "fixed", then what's the point of even trying?

I think that's an awful attitude for any corps to fall into and I really hope the corps themselves don't feel as strongly about it as you do.

Obviously, I think the Blue Stars have just as much chance next year as anyone else. Only they themselves can prevent it from happening if they fall into some attitude that everything is pre-determined.

So, since this is a prediction thread, what do you predict for them next year?

[contrajedi8]

1. Blue Devils- No reason to pick against them. They have it figured out.

2. The Cadets- This will be a close one and a barn-burner finish with Devs

3. Santa Clara Vanguard- Another step forward to winning DCI

4. Phantom Regiment- Still can't put all the pieces together

5. Carolina Crown- See Phantom Regiment

6. Bluecoats- Another fantastic show that finishes 6th

7. Boston Crusaders- Most consistently entertaining corps of the last few years. Would love to see it pay competitive dividends.

8. The Cavaliers- The Cavaliers have some real issues. I think it's going to be a long, bumpy road back for them.

9. Madison Scouts- I think they're further away than some think. However, a 6th-7th place finish wouldn't completely surprise me, either.

10. Spirit of Atlanta- This corps is for real.

11. Blue Knights- Another year, another 11th place snooze-fest.

12. Crossmen- Had to pick somebody to finish 12th.

Edited August 17, 2012 by contrajedi8