Finals Judging Panel

[BishRob]

Skywhopper, nice analysis. I did one too that was less complete, but still took me some time. BD was slight favorite Friday (0.05) as well as Saturday (not giving that number, because I now see that McGrath had judged Music Analysis in Atlanta, and Carlson hadn't judged Crown or BD in the CG caption yet this year.) When I saw one judge had seen both later in the season, my Friday analysis flipped by .1 to push towards BD. How close it was!

After BD's .15 win Thursday, I was curious myself what Crown needed to do. Get .15 obviously, but where would it come from? I'd have done this for more corps, but just to compare two corps takes enough time. Given the Finals recap of such close spreads, I now wish I had done more, probably over the course of the season, though.

Edited August 11, 2013 by BishRob

[skywhopper]

BD should squeak it out by about 0.15.

However, if you add in the fact that Crown goes on last tonight... that could swing things a bit. If Crown gets 20s in Brass, Guard, and GE Music (totally possible), and if the judges only give BD 19.9s in every caption they win, that could be enough to swing things back into Crown's favor.

And this is, I believe, totally what happened! Crown won by 0.25, or +0.4 over the "naive" average-the-judges'-past-spreads approach. Crown would have scored at least 0.1 lower had they gone on second to last (change their two 20s to 19.9s), and BD would have gotten at least 0.1 higher (change their two 19.9s to 20s). Add in a couple of other judges bumping visual scores if BD was on last and you have the difference.

So Crown should be thanking the Semis panel as much or more than the Finals panel for their win last night!

[skywhopper]

Skywhopper, nice analysis. I did one too that was less complete, but still took me some time. BD was slight favorite Friday (0.05) as well as Saturday (not giving that number, because I now see that McGrath had judged Music Analysis in Atlanta, and Carlson hadn't judged Crown or BD in the CG caption yet this year.) When I saw one judge had seen both later in the season, my Friday analysis flipped by .1 to push towards BD. How close it was!

After BD's .15 win Thursday, I was curious myself what Crown needed to do. Get .15 obviously, but where would it come from? I'd have done this for more corps, but just to compare two corps takes enough time. Given the Finals recap of such close spreads, I now wish I had done more, probably over the course of the season, though.

Yes, this analysis took way more time than I should have spent. Luckily, this year we had a lot more data on past Crown v BD judging than usual because of Crown's west coast tour plus the TOC shows. GE Music was clearly Crown's savior, with a 0.55 margin over BD, and only a 0.15 deficit to BD in GE Visual (after shocking me by winning GE Vis in Semis). I had also expected Crown to get a 20 in Music Analysis, but given that the judge had previous rated BD higher, and given that Crown managed to pull an 0.4 spread over BD from said judge, that 19.8 is pretty amazing in itself.

[TxBigfoot]

I have heard a rumor of a judge getting fired. Anyone know any details?

[fsthnds]

I have heard a rumor of a judge getting fired. Anyone know any details?

ONLY ONE?????????????????

[perc2100]

And this is, I believe, totally what happened! Crown won by 0.25, or +0.4 over the "naive" average-the-judges'-past-spreads approach. Crown would have scored at least 0.1 lower had they gone on second to last (change their two 20s to 19.9s), and BD would have gotten at least 0.1 higher (change their two 19.9s to 20s). Add in a couple of other judges bumping visual scores if BD was on last and you have the difference.

So Crown should be thanking the Semis panel as much or more than the Finals panel for their win last night! :tongue:/>

BUT....

1) a judge can give Crown a 20 in a caption if they're positive Crown is unstoppable (say, in brass). It's not common, but it's not unheard of either (BD got a 100 in a subcaption last night going on second to last)

2) if you change Crown's 20's to 19.9, then probably lower BD's scores as well that were .1 or .2 behind Crown - it's about the spreads, not the score!

3) if you raise BD's 19.9's to 20's, then probably you would raise Crown's 2nd place captions as well (it's arguable that Crown's lower score underneath BD was because the judge left some room at the top in case Crown was better than BD - so if Crown was 2nd to last maybe they're 98's would've been 99's with room to give BD's 99's 100's)

So really, things would've still likely evened out: lowering Crown's winning captions by .1 or .2 would've lowered BD's 2nd place captions by .1 or .2 as well. And raising BD's top scores would likely have resulted in raising Crown's 2nd place captions.

Of course, this is PURE numbers analysis and doesn't take into account that Blue Devils winning Semifinals (again) would've likely made a significant difference in performances from Crown and BD on Saturday night, so who knows what would've happened then! I agree Crown significantly benefitted by winning Semifinals, especially with a comfortable spread

[skywhopper]

2) if you change Crown's 20's to 19.9, then probably lower BD's scores as well that were .1 or .2 behind Crown - it's about the spreads, not the score!

3) if you raise BD's 19.9's to 20's, then probably you would raise Crown's 2nd place captions as well (it's arguable that Crown's lower score underneath BD was because the judge left some room at the top in case Crown was better than BD - so if Crown was 2nd to last maybe they're 98's would've been 99's with room to give BD's 99's 100's)

I don't agree here. Crown's 20s came in captions where the judges had plenty of room to give them 19.8 or 19.9. Similarly last year in finals, the Blue Devils got a big boost because all the visual judges except for Visual Proficiency (which Crown won) felt free to jam things on up to 20, increasing the spreads by a lot over semis night. I really don't think the judges were looking at spreads at that point. A 20 is a statement. Crown might have still gotten the 20 in GE Music from the one judge had they not gone on last--they've been dominating BD in that category most of the year, but they wouldn't have gotten it in brass, which has been a closer thing up until Semis.

[perc2100]

I don't agree here. Crown's 20s came in captions where the judges had plenty of room to give them 19.8 or 19.9. Similarly last year in finals, the Blue Devils got a big boost because all the visual judges except for Visual Proficiency (which Crown won) felt free to jam things on up to 20, increasing the spreads by a lot over semis night. I really don't think the judges were looking at spreads at that point. A 20 is a statement. Crown might have still gotten the 20 in GE Music from the one judge had they not gone on last--they've been dominating BD in that category most of the year, but they wouldn't have gotten it in brass, which has been a closer thing up until Semis.

Yeah, we'll never know huh.

Funny thing, we're both trying to apply/cram logic into a subject that is admittedly a bit devoid of logic a lot of times! Judge's emotions after a run have a HUGE determining factor over a number/ranking/rating/spread that kind of literally throws logic out the window.

The only thing I think we could all agree on is that Prosperie's numbers/spreads would've likely not changed at all if BD went on last

[Jeff Ream]

I have heard a rumor of a judge getting fired. Anyone know any details?

Fired? Doubtful. I'm pretty certain after Friday a few were pulled aside and grilled for explanations