TubaJon Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Okay. I will give the Top 12 a try now that I believe I have seen most of the shows: 1. Carolina Crown 2. Santa Clara Vanguard 3. Bluecoats 4. Blue Devils 5. The Cadets 6. Boston Crusaders 7. Phantom Regiment 8. The Cavaliers 9. Madison Scouts 10. Blue Knights 11. Spirit of Atlanta 12. Crossmen This would make for the most insane season in DCI history. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BozzlyB Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The gap really closed tightly between Spirit and Boston in the past few days to less than two points last night in Lawrence MA. Not sure if this will hold past July, or even past this show for that matter. But if it does we can safely add Boston to the Troopers, SOA, Crossmen, Blue Stars, Blue Knights mix for a very tight competition for 9-14 this year. I can't wait to see what the first regional brings. I was really surprised to see Spirit that close to Boston considering the large gap thus far between Spirit and Blue Stars. Makes me think the first meeting between Blue Stars and Boston could be really interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caliswift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 While I don't like what I think will happen, here's my guess of how it will turn with my own opinions in the parenthesis: 1. (1) BD 2. (4) Cadets 3. (3) Crown 4. (2) Bluecoats 5. (5) SCV 6. (10) Phantom 7. (9) Cavaliers 8. (8) Boston 9. (7) Madison 10. (6) BK 10-15. I have no idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PC Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Based on the number-crunching from drum corp's version of Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com), an awful lot of you look like you've been drinking the kool-aid. I recommend y'all go on the wagon and follow the trend lines. HOSTRAUSER'S DCI RANKINGS - Week 1 (6/18 - 6/29)98.25 The Cadets98.20 Blue Devils97.60 Carolina Crown95.85 Bluecoats94.55 Santa Clara Vanguard93.10 Cavaliers92.95 Phantom Regiment89.45 Madison Scouts87.80 Boston Crusaders85.95 Blue Knights85.95 Blue Stars83.30 Spirit of Atlanta ------------ Finals Cut-line ----------------83.00 Troopers82.55 Crossmen78.50 Colts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slingerland Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Based on the number-crunching from drum corp's version of Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com), an awful lot of you look like you've been drinking the kool-aid. I recommend y'all go on the wagon and follow the trend lines. HOSTRAUSER'S DCI RANKINGS - Week 1 (6/18 - 6/29) 98.25 The Cadets 98.20 Blue Devils 97.60 Carolina Crown 95.85 Bluecoats 94.55 Santa Clara Vanguard 93.10 Cavaliers 92.95 Phantom Regiment 89.45 Madison Scouts 87.80 Boston Crusaders 85.95 Blue Knights 85.95 Blue Stars 83.30 Spirit of Atlanta ------------ Finals Cut-line ---------------- 83.00 Troopers 82.55 Crossmen 78.50 Colts Were I betting, this is how I'd put money on the final outcomes, though I'd have a little extra riding on Cavaliers bumping SCV for the 5 spot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drumcorpsfever Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Based on the number-crunching from drum corp's version of Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com), an awful lot of you look like you've been drinking the kool-aid. I recommend y'all go on the wagon and follow the trend lines. HOSTRAUSER'S DCI RANKINGS - Week 1 (6/18 - 6/29) 98.25 The Cadets 98.20 Blue Devils 97.60 Carolina Crown 95.85 Bluecoats 94.55 Santa Clara Vanguard 93.10 Cavaliers 92.95 Phantom Regiment 89.45 Madison Scouts 87.80 Boston Crusaders 85.95 Blue Knights 85.95 Blue Stars 83.30 Spirit of Atlanta ------------ Finals Cut-line ---------------- 83.00 Troopers 82.55 Crossmen 78.50 Colts I wouldn't be too fast to read too much into this. It's been just a little over 1 week; Small judging panels; Judges still in a rut over slotting from last year's rankings, expectations, biases And... last year proved that a popular and annointed show can gather momentum all the way through finals night. The same can happen again this year. Remember 2011: Cadets were 4th in the first regional of the year and you know what happened after that. This year may produce a 4-horse race for the top. This thing is wide open. Rankings based on unrelated shows and early reads won't mean a thing as the season progresses. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THeShadeOfNight Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 This thing is wide open. Rankings based on unrelated shows and early reads won't mean a thing as the season progresses. I LOVE YOU. Thank you so so so so much for saying what I have been for years. Yet people still somehow compare scores from different shows. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldsoprano Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 (edited) I was really surprised to see Spirit that close to Boston considering the large gap thus far between Spirit and Blue Stars. Makes me think the first meeting between Blue Stars and Boston could be really interesting. "large gap thus far between Spirit and Blue Stars' makes it sound like Blue Stars have been soundly beating Spirit on a regular basis. They've only met (and both been scored) one time, at the first show of the season 10 days ago. Once. Maybe recent scores just mean Spirit had a really bad show right out of the gate and are picking up a little bit of steam and starting to overcome the bad start. Edited June 30, 2014 by oldsoprano Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BozzlyB Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 "large gap thus far between Spirit and Blue Stars' makes it sound like Blue Stars have been soundly beating Spirit on a regular basis. They've only met (and both been scored) one time, at the first show of the season 10 days ago. Once. Maybe recent scores just mean Spirit had a really bad show right out of the gate and are picking up a little bit of steam and starting to overcome the bad start. That is entirely possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.E. Brigand Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I wouldn't be too fast to read too much into this. ...Remember 2011: Cadets were 4th in the first regional of the year and you know what happened after that. Think of hostrauser's list as a (week-long) statistically-savvy snapshot. As suggested by my Dickens quote in the other thread, corps can change the course of their fates. If they don't, this is probably how they'll end up. ""Wyrd oft neredh unfaegne eorl, thonne his ellen deah!" It might be interesting to look at his first-week rankings for the past five years compared to the slate of Finalists. Bold indicates a corps that moved up or down by at least two positions. 2009 1. Blue Devils "1930" >>> 1st 2. Cavaliers "The Great Divide" >>> 4th 3. Holy Name Cadets "West Side Story" >>> 3rd 4. Carolina Crown "The Grass Is Always Greener" >>> 2nd 5. Phantom Regiment "The Red Violin" >>> 9th 6. Santa Clara Vanguard "Ballet for Martha" >>> 5th 7. Bluecoats "Imagine" >>> 6th 8. Blue Stars "The Factory" >>> 8th 9. Blue Knights "Shiver" >>> 11th 10. Boston Crusaders "The Core of Temptation" >>> 7th 11. Glassmen "The Journey of ONE" >>> 10th 12. Madison Scouts "El Relampago" >>> 15th - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 16. Troopers "Western Side Story" >>> 12th 2010 1. Blue Devils "Through a Glass, Darkly" >>> 1st 2. Carolina Crown "A Second Chance" >>> 4th 3. The Cadets "Toy Souldier" >>> 5th 4. Bluecoats "Metropolis" >>> 3rd 5. Santa Clara Vanguard "Bartok" >>> 7th 6. Phantom Regiment "Into the Light" >>> 6th 7. The Cavaliers "Mad World" >>> 2nd 8. Boston Crusaders "Thy Kingdom Come" >>> 9th 9. Blue Stars "Houdini" >>> 8th 10. Blue Knights "Europa" >>> 11th 11. Madison Scouts >>> 10th 12. Glassmen "The Prayer Cycle" >>> 12th 2011 1. Cavaliers "XtraordinarY" >>> 3rd 2. Cadets "Between Angels and Demons" >>> 1st 3. Blue Devils "The Beat My Heart Skipped" >>> 2nd 4. Carolina Crown "Rach Star" >>> 4th 5. Bluecoats "Brave New World" >>> 7th 6. Phantom Regiment "Juliet" >>> 5th 7. Madison Scouts "New York Morning" >>> 10th 8. Santa Clara Vanguard "The Devil's Staircase" >>> 6th 9. Blue Stars "ReBourne" >>> 11th 10. Boston Crusaders "Revolution" >>> 8th 11. Blue Knights "En English Folk Song Suite" >>> 9th 12. Glassmen "My Mortal Beloved" >>> 13th - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 13. Spirit of Atlanta "ATL Confidential" >>> 12th 2012 1. Carolina Crown "For the Common Good" >>> 2nd 2. The Cadets "12.25" >>> 4th 3. Blue Devils "Cabaret Voltaire" >>> 1st 4. Phantom Regiment "Turandot" >>> 3rd 5. Bluecoats "Unmasqued" >>> 6th 6. The Cavaliers "15 Minutes of Fame" >>> 8th 7. Santa Clara Vanguard "Music of the Starry Night" >>> 5th 8. Madison Scouts "Reframed" >>> 10th 9. Boston Crusaders "The Titans" >>> 7th 10. Spirit of Atlanta "Sin City" >>> 11th 11. Blue Stars "The Blue World" >>> 13th 12. Blue Knights "Avian" >>> 10th - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 15. Crossmen "Fragile" >>> 12th 2013 1. Carolina Crown "E=mc2" >>> 1st 2. Blue Devils "The re:Rite of Spring" >>> 2nd 3. The Cadets "Side x Side" >>> 3rd 4. Santa Clara Vanguard "Les Miserables" >>> 4th 5. Phantom Regiment "Triumphant Journey" >>> 6th 6. Bluecoats "To Look for America" >>> 5th 7. Madison Scouts "Corps of Brothers" >>> 9th 8. Blue Knights "NoBeginningNoEnd' >>> 10th 9. The Cavaliers "Secret Society" >>> 7th 10. Boston Crusaders "Rise" >>> 8th 11. Spirit of Atlanta "Speakeasy" >>> 11th 12. Pacific Crest "Transfixed" >>> 16th - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 13. Blue Stars "Voodoo" >>> 12th Do you see any trends? I notice two: in four of five years, Boston improved their initial standing by at least two places, and in four of five years, Madison dropped from their initial standing by at least two places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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