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2014 Predictions!


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Okay. I will give the Top 12 a try now that I believe I have seen most of the shows:

1. Carolina Crown

2. Santa Clara Vanguard

3. Bluecoats

4. Blue Devils

5. The Cadets

6. Boston Crusaders

7. Phantom Regiment

8. The Cavaliers

9. Madison Scouts

10. Blue Knights

11. Spirit of Atlanta

12. Crossmen

This would make for the most insane season in DCI history.

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The gap really closed tightly between Spirit and Boston in the past few days to less than two points last night in Lawrence MA. Not sure if this will hold past July, or even past this show for that matter. But if it does we can safely add Boston to the Troopers, SOA, Crossmen, Blue Stars, Blue Knights mix for a very tight competition for 9-14 this year. I can't wait to see what the first regional brings.

I was really surprised to see Spirit that close to Boston considering the large gap thus far between Spirit and Blue Stars. Makes me think the first meeting between Blue Stars and Boston could be really interesting.

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While I don't like what I think will happen, here's my guess of how it will turn with my own opinions in the parenthesis:

1. (1) BD

2. (4) Cadets

3. (3) Crown

4. (2) Bluecoats

5. (5) SCV

6. (10) Phantom

7. (9) Cavaliers

8. (8) Boston

9. (7) Madison

10. (6) BK

10-15. I have no idea.

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Based on the number-crunching from drum corp's version of Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com), an awful lot of you look like you've been drinking the kool-aid. I recommend y'all go on the wagon and follow the trend lines.

HOSTRAUSER'S DCI RANKINGS - Week 1 (6/18 - 6/29)
98.25 The Cadets
98.20 Blue Devils
97.60 Carolina Crown
95.85 Bluecoats
94.55 Santa Clara Vanguard
93.10 Cavaliers
92.95 Phantom Regiment
89.45 Madison Scouts
87.80 Boston Crusaders
85.95 Blue Knights
85.95 Blue Stars
83.30 Spirit of Atlanta ------------ Finals Cut-line ----------------
83.00 Troopers
82.55 Crossmen
78.50 Colts

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Based on the number-crunching from drum corp's version of Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com), an awful lot of you look like you've been drinking the kool-aid. I recommend y'all go on the wagon and follow the trend lines.

HOSTRAUSER'S DCI RANKINGS - Week 1 (6/18 - 6/29)

98.25 The Cadets

98.20 Blue Devils

97.60 Carolina Crown

95.85 Bluecoats

94.55 Santa Clara Vanguard

93.10 Cavaliers

92.95 Phantom Regiment

89.45 Madison Scouts

87.80 Boston Crusaders

85.95 Blue Knights

85.95 Blue Stars

83.30 Spirit of Atlanta ------------ Finals Cut-line ----------------

83.00 Troopers

82.55 Crossmen

78.50 Colts

Were I betting, this is how I'd put money on the final outcomes, though I'd have a little extra riding on Cavaliers bumping SCV for the 5 spot.

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Based on the number-crunching from drum corp's version of Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com), an awful lot of you look like you've been drinking the kool-aid. I recommend y'all go on the wagon and follow the trend lines.

HOSTRAUSER'S DCI RANKINGS - Week 1 (6/18 - 6/29)

98.25 The Cadets

98.20 Blue Devils

97.60 Carolina Crown

95.85 Bluecoats

94.55 Santa Clara Vanguard

93.10 Cavaliers

92.95 Phantom Regiment

89.45 Madison Scouts

87.80 Boston Crusaders

85.95 Blue Knights

85.95 Blue Stars

83.30 Spirit of Atlanta ------------ Finals Cut-line ----------------

83.00 Troopers

82.55 Crossmen

78.50 Colts

I wouldn't be too fast to read too much into this.

  • It's been just a little over 1 week;
  • Small judging panels;
  • Judges still in a rut over slotting from last year's rankings, expectations, biases
  • And... last year proved that a popular and annointed show can gather momentum all the way through finals night. The same can happen again this year.

Remember 2011: Cadets were 4th in the first regional of the year and you know what happened after that.

This year may produce a 4-horse race for the top.

This thing is wide open. Rankings based on unrelated shows and early reads won't mean a thing as the season progresses.

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I was really surprised to see Spirit that close to Boston considering the large gap thus far between Spirit and Blue Stars. Makes me think the first meeting between Blue Stars and Boston could be really interesting.

"large gap thus far between Spirit and Blue Stars' makes it sound like Blue Stars have been soundly beating Spirit on a regular basis. They've only met (and both been scored) one time, at the first show of the season 10 days ago. Once. Maybe recent scores just mean Spirit had a really bad show right out of the gate and are picking up a little bit of steam and starting to overcome the bad start.

Edited by oldsoprano
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"large gap thus far between Spirit and Blue Stars' makes it sound like Blue Stars have been soundly beating Spirit on a regular basis. They've only met (and both been scored) one time, at the first show of the season 10 days ago. Once. Maybe recent scores just mean Spirit had a really bad show right out of the gate and are picking up a little bit of steam and starting to overcome the bad start.

That is entirely possible.

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I wouldn't be too fast to read too much into this.

...

Remember 2011: Cadets were 4th in the first regional of the year and you know what happened after that.

Think of hostrauser's list as a (week-long) statistically-savvy snapshot. As suggested by my Dickens quote in the other thread, corps can change the course of their fates. If they don't, this is probably how they'll end up. ""Wyrd oft neredh unfaegne eorl, thonne his ellen deah!"

It might be interesting to look at his first-week rankings for the past five years compared to the slate of Finalists. Bold indicates a corps that moved up or down by at least two positions.

2009

1. Blue Devils "1930" >>> 1st

2. Cavaliers "The Great Divide" >>> 4th

3. Holy Name Cadets "West Side Story" >>> 3rd

4. Carolina Crown "The Grass Is Always Greener" >>> 2nd

5. Phantom Regiment "The Red Violin" >>> 9th

6. Santa Clara Vanguard "Ballet for Martha" >>> 5th

7. Bluecoats "Imagine" >>> 6th

8. Blue Stars "The Factory" >>> 8th

9. Blue Knights "Shiver" >>> 11th

10. Boston Crusaders "The Core of Temptation" >>> 7th

11. Glassmen "The Journey of ONE" >>> 10th

12. Madison Scouts "El Relampago" >>> 15th

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

16. Troopers "Western Side Story" >>> 12th

2010

1. Blue Devils "Through a Glass, Darkly" >>> 1st

2. Carolina Crown "A Second Chance" >>> 4th

3. The Cadets "Toy Souldier" >>> 5th

4. Bluecoats "Metropolis" >>> 3rd

5. Santa Clara Vanguard "Bartok" >>> 7th

6. Phantom Regiment "Into the Light" >>> 6th

7. The Cavaliers "Mad World" >>> 2nd

8. Boston Crusaders "Thy Kingdom Come" >>> 9th

9. Blue Stars "Houdini" >>> 8th

10. Blue Knights "Europa" >>> 11th

11. Madison Scouts >>> 10th

12. Glassmen "The Prayer Cycle" >>> 12th

2011

1. Cavaliers "XtraordinarY" >>> 3rd

2. Cadets "Between Angels and Demons" >>> 1st

3. Blue Devils "The Beat My Heart Skipped" >>> 2nd

4. Carolina Crown "Rach Star" >>> 4th

5. Bluecoats "Brave New World" >>> 7th

6. Phantom Regiment "Juliet" >>> 5th

7. Madison Scouts "New York Morning" >>> 10th

8. Santa Clara Vanguard "The Devil's Staircase" >>> 6th

9. Blue Stars "ReBourne" >>> 11th

10. Boston Crusaders "Revolution" >>> 8th

11. Blue Knights "En English Folk Song Suite" >>> 9th

12. Glassmen "My Mortal Beloved" >>> 13th

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

13. Spirit of Atlanta "ATL Confidential" >>> 12th

2012

1. Carolina Crown "For the Common Good" >>> 2nd

2. The Cadets "12.25" >>> 4th

3. Blue Devils "Cabaret Voltaire" >>> 1st

4. Phantom Regiment "Turandot" >>> 3rd

5. Bluecoats "Unmasqued" >>> 6th

6. The Cavaliers "15 Minutes of Fame" >>> 8th

7. Santa Clara Vanguard "Music of the Starry Night" >>> 5th

8. Madison Scouts "Reframed" >>> 10th

9. Boston Crusaders "The Titans" >>> 7th

10. Spirit of Atlanta "Sin City" >>> 11th

11. Blue Stars "The Blue World" >>> 13th

12. Blue Knights "Avian" >>> 10th

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

15. Crossmen "Fragile" >>> 12th

2013

1. Carolina Crown "E=mc2" >>> 1st

2. Blue Devils "The re:Rite of Spring" >>> 2nd

3. The Cadets "Side x Side" >>> 3rd

4. Santa Clara Vanguard "Les Miserables" >>> 4th

5. Phantom Regiment "Triumphant Journey" >>> 6th

6. Bluecoats "To Look for America" >>> 5th

7. Madison Scouts "Corps of Brothers" >>> 9th

8. Blue Knights "NoBeginningNoEnd' >>> 10th

9. The Cavaliers "Secret Society" >>> 7th

10. Boston Crusaders "Rise" >>> 8th

11. Spirit of Atlanta "Speakeasy" >>> 11th

12. Pacific Crest "Transfixed" >>> 16th

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

13. Blue Stars "Voodoo" >>> 12th

Do you see any trends? I notice two: in four of five years, Boston improved their initial standing by at least two places, and in four of five years, Madison dropped from their initial standing by at least two places.

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