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Think of hostrauser's list as a (week-long) statistically-savvy snapshot. As suggested by my Dickens quote in the other thread, corps can change the course of their fates. If they don't, this is probably how they'll end up. ""Wyrd oft neredh unfaegne eorl, thonne his ellen deah!"

It might be interesting to look at his first-week rankings for the past five years compared to the slate of Finalists. Bold indicates a corps that moved up or down by at least two positions.

2009

1. Blue Devils "1930" >>> 1st

2. Cavaliers "The Great Divide" >>> 4th

3. Holy Name Cadets "West Side Story" >>> 3rd

4. Carolina Crown "The Grass Is Always Greener" >>> 2nd

5. Phantom Regiment "The Red Violin" >>> 9th

6. Santa Clara Vanguard "Ballet for Martha" >>> 5th

7. Bluecoats "Imagine" >>> 6th

8. Blue Stars "The Factory" >>> 8th

9. Blue Knights "Shiver" >>> 11th

10. Boston Crusaders "The Core of Temptation" >>> 7th

11. Glassmen "The Journey of ONE" >>> 10th

12. Madison Scouts "El Relampago" >>> 15th

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

16. Troopers "Western Side Story" >>> 12th

2010

1. Blue Devils "Through a Glass, Darkly" >>> 1st

2. Carolina Crown "A Second Chance" >>> 4th

3. The Cadets "Toy Souldier" >>> 5th

4. Bluecoats "Metropolis" >>> 3rd

5. Santa Clara Vanguard "Bartok" >>> 7th

6. Phantom Regiment "Into the Light" >>> 6th

7. The Cavaliers "Mad World" >>> 2nd

8. Boston Crusaders "Thy Kingdom Come" >>> 9th

9. Blue Stars "Houdini" >>> 8th

10. Blue Knights "Europa" >>> 11th

11. Madison Scouts >>> 10th

12. Glassmen "The Prayer Cycle" >>> 12th

2011

1. Cavaliers "XtraordinarY" >>> 3rd

2. Cadets "Between Angels and Demons" >>> 1st

3. Blue Devils "The Beat My Heart Skipped" >>> 2nd

4. Carolina Crown "Rach Star" >>> 4th

5. Bluecoats "Brave New World" >>> 7th

6. Phantom Regiment "Juliet" >>> 5th

7. Madison Scouts "New York Morning" >>> 10th

8. Santa Clara Vanguard "The Devil's Staircase" >>> 6th

9. Blue Stars "ReBourne" >>> 11th

10. Boston Crusaders "Revolution" >>> 8th

11. Blue Knights "En English Folk Song Suite" >>> 9th

12. Glassmen "My Mortal Beloved" >>> 13th

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

13. Spirit of Atlanta "ATL Confidential" >>> 12th

2012

1. Carolina Crown "For the Common Good" >>> 2nd

2. The Cadets "12.25" >>> 4th

3. Blue Devils "Cabaret Voltaire" >>> 1st

4. Phantom Regiment "Turandot" >>> 3rd

5. Bluecoats "Unmasqued" >>> 6th

6. The Cavaliers "15 Minutes of Fame" >>> 8th

7. Santa Clara Vanguard "Music of the Starry Night" >>> 5th

8. Madison Scouts "Reframed" >>> 10th

9. Boston Crusaders "The Titans" >>> 7th

10. Spirit of Atlanta "Sin City" >>> 11th

11. Blue Stars "The Blue World" >>> 13th

12. Blue Knights "Avian" >>> 10th

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

15. Crossmen "Fragile" >>> 12th

2013

1. Carolina Crown "E=mc2" >>> 1st

2. Blue Devils "The re:Rite of Spring" >>> 2nd

3. The Cadets "Side x Side" >>> 3rd

4. Santa Clara Vanguard "Les Miserables" >>> 4th

5. Phantom Regiment "Triumphant Journey" >>> 6th

6. Bluecoats "To Look for America" >>> 5th

7. Madison Scouts "Corps of Brothers" >>> 9th

8. Blue Knights "NoBeginningNoEnd' >>> 10th

9. The Cavaliers "Secret Society" >>> 7th

10. Boston Crusaders "Rise" >>> 8th

11. Spirit of Atlanta "Speakeasy" >>> 11th

12. Pacific Crest "Transfixed" >>> 16th

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

13. Blue Stars "Voodoo" >>> 12th

Do you see any trends? I notice two: in four of five years, Boston improved their initial standing by at least two places, and in four of five years, Madison dropped from their initial standing by at least two places.

This is getting just plain silly. These aren't handicap numbers made up by Hostrauser acting as a bookie. These are just number-crunching the first week's statistical results - and all the numbers and data-points are just judges first guesses at the very beginning of the season. There are way too many balls in the air and wildcards to draw ANY kind of conclusions - except to debunk the critics carping that these numbers don't reflect their fantasy orgasmic finals wet dreams. This thread had already built up how many pages of predictions and commentary before there were any scores or actual performance competitions at all? And, now, with at least a modest early handful of numbers to crunch a lot pipe dreams have gone up in smoke. Deflating the gasbags is a really helpful service and Hostrauser's numbers really do tend to make that happen.

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. As I lack the expertise to predict placements, I will simply predict the events I expect to transpire on finals night:

I predict that my son marching with The Cavaliers and my daughter marching with SCV are going to have life changing summers.

Unfortunate that even when the Crossmen are the only ones to perform, they still get 11th I think I'll go hide now from the very vocal Crossmen supporters that are on DCP tonight

This is getting just plain silly.

Drat. I was going for complexly silly.

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This is getting just plain silly. . with at least a modest early handful of numbers to crunch a lot pipe dreams have gone up in smoke. Deflating the gasbags is a really helpful service .

And its not yet July, 1st too.

Wait'll we see the gasbags get deflated on the 4th of July weekend scores too. We might be able to even call off the entire season by then and toss these gasbags into the DCP dumpster out back after we giv'em a quick 2 in the hat.

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Updated prediction:

1. Blue Devils

2. Bluecoats

3. Carolina Crown

4. The Cadets

5. The Cavaliers

6. Santa Clara Vanguard

7. Phantom Regiment

8. Blue Stars

9. Madison Scouts

10. Boston Crusaders

11. Troopers

12. Blue Knights

Edit: forgot Blue Knights, but honestly it's hard to say who will be in or out of the top 12 currently. Wouldn't shock me if they were that group come August.

Edited by MarchandPlay
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Updated prediction:

1. Blue Devils

2. Bluecoats

3. Carolina Crown

4. The Cadets

5. The Cavaliers

6. Santa Clara Vanguard

7. Phantom Regiment

8. Blue Stars

9. Madison Scouts

10. Boston Crusaders

11. Troopers

12. Spirit of Atlanta

You might want to update that again. BK will certainly be in the top 12.

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Updated prediction:

11. Troopers

12. Blue Knights

I love the Troopers... but not THIS much.

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Why not? That would only be an improvement of two places from last year for them.

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Why not? That would only be an improvement of two places from last year for them.

I suppose anythings possible. I'm trying to think when it was the last time BK finished behind the Troopers at Finals. Its so long ago, I can't remember. I think it was some time ago out west where Arnold S;was first seen pumping iron for onlookers at Venice Beach or back east when Madonna was still a Virgin.

Edited by BRASSO
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