Can the Troopers make Top 12 this year?

[N.E. Brigand]

So I thought I'd look a little farther back, say 25 years, but the first scores I went to check, for the Crossmen in 1989, proved most alarming:

At their first show in Wayne, NJ on 6/24/89, they scored 55.0.

The next night, 6/25/89 in Baltimore, they scored 71.3.

In both cases, they placed second to Cadets, who in one day went from 70.10 to 77.67.

How could that happen then (this was post-tic system), and why doesn't it happen now?

[N.E. Brigand]

So I think these are the numbers for the twelfth-place corps over the past 25 years, showing change from first score to Semifinals scores and the number of days to determine the average improvement per day:

1989 - Crossmen-0.56/day (6/24/1989-55>>8/18/1989-85.8=30.8/55)

1990 - Dutch Boy-0.463/day (6/27/1990-62.7>>8/17/1990-86.3=23.6/51)

1991 - Sky Ryders-0.375/day (6/22/1991-64.5>>8/16/1991-85.1=20.6/55)

1992 - Freelancers-0.416/day (6/13/1992-58.2>>8/14/1992-84=25.8/62)

1993 - Colts-0.412/day (6/12/1993-55.8>>8/20/1993-84.2=28.4/69)

1994 - Colts-0.35/day (6/12/1994-59.2>>8/19/1994-83=23.8/68)

1995 - Magic of Orlando-0.374/day (7/8/1995-69.2>>8/11/1995-81.9=12.7/34)

1996 - Blue Knights-0.516/day (6/21/1996-55.7>>8/16/1996-84.6=28.9/56)

1997 - Carolina Crown-0.39/day (6/24/1997-65.6>>8/15/1997-85.9=20.3/52)

1998 - Colts-0.489/day (6/12/1998-56.5>>8/14/1998-87.3=30.8/63)

1999 - Colts-0.425/day (6/18/1999-61.4>>8/13/1999-85.2=23.8/56)

2000 - Bluecoats-0.444/day (6/25/2000-64.3>>8/11/2000-85.15=20.85/47)

2001 - Colts-0.471/day (6/15/2001-59.6>>8/10/2001-85.95=26.35/56)

2002 - Cascades-0.426/day (6/28/2001-68.05>>8/9/2001-85.95=17.9/42)

2003 - Spirit-0.418/day (6/20/2003-65>>8/8/2003-85.5=20.5/49)

2004 - Glassmen-0.463/day (6/18/2004-63.7>>8/6/2004-86.375=22.675/49)

2005 - Spirit-0.434/day (6/22/2005-63.6>>8/12/2005-85.75=22.15/51)

2006 - Spirit-0.362/day (6/22/2006-67.2>>8/11/2006-85.275=18.075/50)

2007 - Spirit-0.447/day (6/16/2007-60.9>>8/10/2007-85.5=24.6/55)

2008 - Madison Scouts-0.518/day (6/21/2008-61.5>>8/8/2008-86.375=24.875/48)

2009 - Troopers-0.453/day (6/23/2009-65.5>>8/7/2009-85.9=20.4/45)

2010 - Glassmen-0.306/day (6/21/2010-70.3>>8/13/2010-86.5=16.2/53)

2011 - Spirit-0.436/day (6/21/2011-63.9>>8/12/2011-86.55=22.65/52)

2012 - Crossmen-0.443/day (6/20/2012-62.3>>8/10/2012-84.9=22.6/51)

2013 - Blue Stars-0.471/day (6/21/2013-63.1>>8/9/2013-86.2=23.1/49)

Dropping the highest and lowest daily increase, the average is 0.435/day.

Troopers started with 61.7 on 6/18/14, and Semifinals are 8/8/14, which is 51 days later. At an average increase of 0.435/day, Troopers will score an 83.885 and so probably miss Finals.

HOWEVER, last year, Troopers started with 59.0 on 6/21/13 and earned 86.05 on 8/9/13, which was 49 days later, for an average increase of 0.552/day.

If they increase at the same daily rate this year, Troopers will score an 89.852 in Semifinals and almost certainly make Finals.

[Jeff Ream]

it's June, shows are incomplete and many haven't even gone out yet. who the #### knows?

[FTNK]

Seeing their show on Fnet...I don't know, it just seems to lack in excitement. Takes a long time to develop, especially in the beginning.

[HornTeacher]

Wow N.E., I'm impressed!! Interesting historical analysis. While it has no direct causality on what will actually transpire this (or any future) year, one must still acknowledge "trends." Nice job.

[Tim K]

Since there was not a full judges panel for this first show, I don't think the score matters as much as the potential of the show, and the same can be said of all who competed on Wednesday night.

Whether or not Troopers make finals does depend on the strength of Spirit and Blue Stars and their ability to remain in finals and Crossmen and Colts. Others have included Pacific Crest and the Academy, and perhaps Oregon Crusaders could be added to the list, but I believe these three would be longshots. Where Troopers fare in this pack will be important. However, there is one important thing to keep in mind regarding Troopers. They have been known for their late season surges and last year was a great example. The strength of Troopers when Allentown rolls around will determine whether they will be finalists or not.

There's also the "Murphy's Law" theory which I admit, is personal to me. I have always wanted to see Troopers in finals when I've been in attendance, but I will not be in Indy this summer. Based on this theory, Troopers will be in finals, Madison will take second and Boston Crusaders will cap their 74th season with a first place and start their 75th season as defending DCI champions.

[Fan of the Arts]

In 2013, the Troopers missed making finals by .15 point. This past Wednesday was DCI’s Opening Night and the Troopers scored a 61.7. Is this enough to break into the final top 12, something they haven’t done since 2009? [/size]

I did a basic statistical analysis (something I’m learning more about this summer) and found out that since 2003, corps that made 12th place at semifinals had a wide range of “first show scores.” I charted these 12th place corps, their semifinal scores, and their first show scores. [/size]

The lowest first show score was a 60.9 by 2007 Spirit and the highest was 70.3 by the 2010 Glassmen. That’s a wide range. Let’s assume the 2010 Glassmen score was an outlier, 62-63 points seem to be the ballpark score to be in top 12 contention. In fact, the average first show score for these 12th place corps (excluding the 2010 Glassmen) is 63.67. [/size]

This is not to say that this year is going to be the same. A lot can happen from now to championship week. Looking at 12th place semifinal scores since 2003, the magic semifinal number seems to be around 85-86 to make it to finals (average is 85.89). But remember, hundredths of a point can mean the difference between 12th and 13th. How much corps improve from the first show to make it to 12th place matters a lot and how much corps improve is not consistent, nor predictable from year to year. Like the stock market, past performance doesn’t necessarily predict future performance.[/size]

What does this mean for other corps hoping to make 12th place, like Crossmen, Colts, and Pacific Crest, and Academy? Since 2003, no corps who scored under 60 at their first show has made it to finals. So the Troopers can breath a sigh of relief.[/size]

Given that most of these first show scores are based on shows on or around June 20th and the Troopers scored 61.7 on June 18, we’ll need to see how the Troopers do on Friday night at Rockford to give us a (somewhat) clearer sense. The closer they score a 63.67, the better their chances to be in top 12 contention. [/size]

To answer your question; yes I believe Troopers will make top 12. This is based off seeing them in Indy.

Irving

Fan of the Arts

[BRASSO]

As to thre question... " can the Troopers make TOP 12 this year ? ", the answer is " absolutely ".

But thats a different question than :...... " will they ? ".... and we really won't know their prospects for that until the Regionals, imo.... Its way too early to project their prospects for this now, as nobody has seen their competition for this yet.

[IllianaLancerContra]

So I thought I'd look a little farther back, say 25 years, but the first scores I went to check, for the Crossmen in 1989, proved most alarming:

At their first show in Wayne, NJ on 6/24/89, they scored 55.0.

The next night, 6/25/89 in Baltimore, they scored 71.3.

In both cases, they placed second to Cadets, who in one day went from 70.10 to 77.67.

How could that happen then (this was post-tic system), and why doesn't it happen now?

This link is an outtake from the Troopers 'Hell Bent for Victory' movie. It shows the 2009 (?) members listening to the GE Brass (Richards) tape from the last 2-3 min of the show, closer was Ecstasy of Gold, with the rifle exchange around the DN, followed by Sunburst drill and segueing into Ghost Riders.

This performance is one of the most legendary in DCI history. Several weeks earlier Crossmen looked like a lock for 7-10th place; Troopers were in 16th or so. Crossmen had a rather flat prelim performance. Troopers did not. Take a listen.

OK, for some reason the link will not cut & paste. Probably some setting on my computer. If you put 'casper troopers hell bent for victory' in the youtube search box it comes up on the right as 'deleted scene no. 2

Edited June 20, 2014 by IllianaLancerContra

[wonderbread403]

So I think these are the numbers for the twelfth-place corps over the past 25 years, showing change from first score to Semifinals scores and the number of days to determine the average improvement per day:

1989 - Crossmen-0.56/day (6/24/1989-55>>8/18/1989-85.8=30.8/55)

1990 - Dutch Boy-0.463/day (6/27/1990-62.7>>8/17/1990-86.3=23.6/51)

1991 - Sky Ryders-0.375/day (6/22/1991-64.5>>8/16/1991-85.1=20.6/55)

1992 - Freelancers-0.416/day (6/13/1992-58.2>>8/14/1992-84=25.8/62)

1993 - Colts-0.412/day (6/12/1993-55.8>>8/20/1993-84.2=28.4/69)

1994 - Colts-0.35/day (6/12/1994-59.2>>8/19/1994-83=23.8/68)

1995 - Magic of Orlando-0.374/day (7/8/1995-69.2>>8/11/1995-81.9=12.7/34)

1996 - Blue Knights-0.516/day (6/21/1996-55.7>>8/16/1996-84.6=28.9/56)

1997 - Carolina Crown-0.39/day (6/24/1997-65.6>>8/15/1997-85.9=20.3/52)

1998 - Colts-0.489/day (6/12/1998-56.5>>8/14/1998-87.3=30.8/63)

1999 - Colts-0.425/day (6/18/1999-61.4>>8/13/1999-85.2=23.8/56)

2000 - Bluecoats-0.444/day (6/25/2000-64.3>>8/11/2000-85.15=20.85/47)

2001 - Colts-0.471/day (6/15/2001-59.6>>8/10/2001-85.95=26.35/56)

2002 - Cascades-0.426/day (6/28/2001-68.05>>8/9/2001-85.95=17.9/42)

2003 - Spirit-0.418/day (6/20/2003-65>>8/8/2003-85.5=20.5/49)

2004 - Glassmen-0.463/day (6/18/2004-63.7>>8/6/2004-86.375=22.675/49)

2005 - Spirit-0.434/day (6/22/2005-63.6>>8/12/2005-85.75=22.15/51)

2006 - Spirit-0.362/day (6/22/2006-67.2>>8/11/2006-85.275=18.075/50)

2007 - Spirit-0.447/day (6/16/2007-60.9>>8/10/2007-85.5=24.6/55)

2008 - Madison Scouts-0.518/day (6/21/2008-61.5>>8/8/2008-86.375=24.875/48)

2009 - Troopers-0.453/day (6/23/2009-65.5>>8/7/2009-85.9=20.4/45)

2010 - Glassmen-0.306/day (6/21/2010-70.3>>8/13/2010-86.5=16.2/53)

2011 - Spirit-0.436/day (6/21/2011-63.9>>8/12/2011-86.55=22.65/52)

2012 - Crossmen-0.443/day (6/20/2012-62.3>>8/10/2012-84.9=22.6/51)

2013 - Blue Stars-0.471/day (6/21/2013-63.1>>8/9/2013-86.2=23.1/49)

Dropping the highest and lowest daily increase, the average is 0.435/day.

Troopers started with 61.7 on 6/18/14, and Semifinals are 8/8/14, which is 51 days later. At an average increase of 0.435/day, Troopers will score an 83.885 and so probably miss Finals.

HOWEVER, last year, Troopers started with 59.0 on 6/21/13 and earned 86.05 on 8/9/13, which was 49 days later, for an average increase of 0.552/day.

If they increase at the same daily rate this year, Troopers will score an 89.852 in Semifinals and almost certainly make Finals.

Thanks for expanding the data, N.E. Brigand. Taking a quick look, I see the last time a corps who scored under a 60 at their first show, and still made it to finals was 2001 Colts. However, their 59.6 was scored very early on June 15th and there were 56 days to semifinals (rather than the typical 50 days or so). By June 20, they scored a 63.3, which is close to what most 12th place corps, in recent years, score around June 20th.

By the way, can I ask you how to compiled your data? I'm still figuring out an efficient to collect and input data into my spreadsheets.

Edited June 20, 2014 by wonderbread403