Northern Thunder Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 The weather gods aren't looking to favorably on this show. The forecast for rain went from 30% to 50% during the past two days. Some of us remember what happened the first year of DCI Minnesota. The forecast went from 30% to "HEAD FOR SHELTER" in two days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lynsew Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Some of us remember what happened the first year of DCI Minnesota. The forecast went from 30% to "HEAD FOR SHELTER" in two days. I was there! Just before phantom went on it was called because of severe weather. If I recall possibly a tornado warning? I just remember driving back to central Wisconsin. The rain was awful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Thunder Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 I was there! Just before phantom went on it was called because of severe weather. If I recall possibly a tornado warning? I just remember driving back to central Wisconsin. The rain was awful. They did blow the warning sirens outside the stadium. I believe it was due to possible rotation seen on radar, rather than an actual confirmed tornado. There was also a HUGE hail core on that radar. I hadn't been so disappointed by a drum corps "stormout" since 1975 Drum Beauty, with SCV, Madison and Blue Devils. (Although SCV did perform their show in the deluge, wearing garbage bags.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainshdw08 Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 The weather gods aren't looking to favorably on this show. The forecast for rain went from 30% to 50% during the past two days. Paitence...it was only at 20 to 30% due to the models being all over the place, in which they still are to a point. When they are like that, we can't go any higher than that. 50% was determined due to what NWS feels at this time, what "could" happen for Saturday based on a few models saying the same thing. If it makes anyone feel better, my office went from "rain likely" or 60% for tomorrow for the last 4 days, yet today for the afternoon package, it was determined to not look as promising as it had before so pops were cut to 40%...additionally we thought it would rain in the morning from a decaying MCS but now looks like afternoon showers and storms from daytime heating. The moral is...just because something is forecast today, doesn't mean it'll happen 2 days from now. Lots can change, could get better, could get worse. Like I've said earlier I feel this is going to be a nowcast situation on Saturday meaning we will have to wait until Saturday in the afternoon to know for sure. Sorry i can't give any better news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corps8294 Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 This morning the forecast went up to a 60% chance of strong to severe storms between 2 - 10 P.M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainshdw08 Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 (edited) Well, things have taken a turn for the worse this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are now looking likely over the area Saturday afternoon, possibly even severe. The shortwave currently near Las Vegas is on pace to be right over the are at max heating time in the afternoon. Large hail is not very likely as the atmosphere will be very moist, heavy rain on the other hand is. With the strong shear in the area damaging winds are possible also. Still...some concern of exactly where it all sets up. The NAM/Canadian have this right over the Lacrosse area while the GFS/Euro keep it more south...ish. As I'm trying to find the good in all of this, the thing I see is the strong shear will tend to keep the convection moving thru the area versus camping out. What I'm hoping that means is, the rain moves thru the area a bit quicker than forecast. Really want to see this afternoon's packages before I get to irritated. The moral of that story is, things change drastically in a 24 hour period when it comes to tracking Low Pressures and moisture. Like I've said before, these events are always hard to forecast correctly until day of, and even then, can be wrong for better or worse. More to follow... Edited July 11, 2014 by rainshdw08 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainshdw08 Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 This morning the forecast went up to a 60% chance of strong to severe storms between 2 - 10 P.M. NWS LaCrosse has it at 70% actually, after 1 and before 10pm. Read above post for a better explanation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldsoprano Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Wonder how they will seed the corps for San Antonio in the event of a rainout, since La Crosse and Denver scores are supposed to set the performance order for S.A. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMcomguy Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Those of you who were disappointed about Minnesota that year have no idea. I drove from Indiana to Omaha, NE before heading up to Minneapolis. Both shows got rained out. Boy such a fun trip that was. Kind of like this year with my attempts at trying to see Bluecoats.... Lexington, KY.... Theatre showing (got cut off before Bluecoats went on)..... Fairfield, OH..........My luck rocks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainshdw08 Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Not looking good folks for good weather....more later. Im at the John Deere Classic Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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