2015 Predictions

[ChuckH]

Plan9, on 15 Aug 2014 - 8:27 PM, said:

Boston... I say, "Swing away, Merrill!" Go physical: sex sells and their best productions in recent years were sexy. Bring back RED, make the frickin' field drip in it and force the first three rows have to back up and cover the eyes and ears of the little ones!

Is that a Signs reference?

And I just had to go looking for it...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1c2jp8WyXms

Terrific. Now my brain is trying to produce a visual design mashup of the Blue Knights show, Plan9's proposal for Boston, and that scene from Signs. :-)

[Lincoln]

And I just had to go looking for it...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1c2jp8WyXms

Terrific. Now my brain is trying to produce a visual design mashup of the Blue Knights show, Plan9's proposal for Boston, and that scene from Signs. :-)

Here is the scene where the line "Swing Away Merrill" is first referenced.

I won't go into the storyline. Needless to say, It's a flashback and I turned to mush when I saw it the three times I went to see the movie (yes, I liked it).

http://youtu.be/Fp6UIhiWeZY

Edited August 25, 2014 by Lincoln

[Madcityscout]

1. Blue Devils - I've mentioned this elsewhere, but BD have completely figured out DCI. That staff has it down to a science and I'm not sure they will ever lose again until either that staff disbands in large enough amounts or some catastrophic event occurs.

2. Cadets - It's hard to count them out of any medal race.

3. Bluecoats - I want the upward trend to continue, but year-to-year things are volatile. Regardless, Bloo seems to have figured the design part out finally and they'll be in the top 5 mix for the next several years I'll wager.

4. Crown - This year's program was a bit of a mess (I liked the parts, but the whole was less than the sum) but Crown's first ever 5th place finish coming off a championship year is a pretty big motivator...they have to fix the percussion issue, though. If it was a notable blemish last year, it's all but an obvious weakness now. The hornline will ensure they're in no danger of falling out of Top 5 contention, though.

5. The Cavaliers - Returning to form. They had one of the more entertaining products on the field this year and seem to be getting a little of that old Cavies Magic back. 5th might be pushing it a little this soon, but hey, why not?

6. SCV - I hate putting them here, but I ran out of room. I thought their concept did them a disservice this past year (rehashing a 10 year old show seemed an odd choice, of course, I marched in 2004 and saw the original many, many times). They need to dig deeper into the well, design-wise, and this could change in a hurry.

7. Blue Knights - Thought they were robbed this year, to be honest.

8. Phantom Regiment - I don't know what's going on in design world over there, but I did not dig this year's show at all. Sure it was pretty...and? No real excitement generated and it showed in the GE score. It just seemed like the safest possible "Phantom" show you could have put out there. Surprise me!

9. Blue Stars - I think they've got a shot at 8th next year honestly if this design philosophy keeps up (and they retain members).

10. Boston Crusaders - HAVE to design with the corps means. I was worried about this year's show from the very first theatercast as being too hard to clean in time and that turned out to be the case. I loved the envelope-pushing, but you can't miss the forest for the trees. Make sure it's a program you can max out when the time comes!

11. Crossmen - So glad to see them back in the top 12 this year. Nothing but good things happening there as far as I can tell.

12. Madison Scouts - I can't drop them out of the top 12 because they perform too well, but this year's show was the biggest "miss" of the finalist corps of 2014. A major design revamp is needed.

Honorable mention to Troopers, whom I wish could crack back in, but they'll have to take another big step up in design.

[Madcityscout]

1. Blue Devils - I've mentioned this elsewhere, but BD have completely figured out DCI. That staff has it down to a science and I'm not sure they will ever lose again until either that staff disbands in large enough amounts or some catastrophic event occurs.

2. Cadets - It's hard to count them out of any medal race.

3. Bluecoats - I want the upward trend to continue, but year-to-year things are volatile. Regardless, Bloo seems to have figured the design part out finally and they'll be in the top 5 mix for the next several years I'll wager.

4. Crown - This year's program was a bit of a mess (I liked the parts, but the whole was less than the sum) but Crown's first ever 5th place finish coming off a championship year is a pretty big motivator...they have to fix the percussion issue, though. If it was a notable blemish last year, it's all but an obvious weakness now. The hornline will ensure they're in no danger of falling out of Top 5 contention, though.

5. The Cavaliers - Returning to form. They had one of the more entertaining products on the field this year and seem to be getting a little of that old Cavies Magic back. 5th might be pushing it a little this soon, but hey, why not?

6. SCV - I hate putting them here, but I ran out of room. I thought their concept did them a disservice this past year (rehashing a 10 year old show seemed an odd choice, of course, I marched in 2004 and saw the original many, many times). They need to dig deeper into the well, design-wise, and this could change in a hurry.

7. Blue Knights - Thought they were robbed this year, to be honest.

8. Phantom Regiment - I don't know what's going on in design world over there, but I did not dig this year's show at all. Sure it was pretty...and? No real excitement generated and it showed in the GE score. It just seemed like the safest possible "Phantom" show you could have put out there. Surprise me!

9. Blue Stars - I think they've got a shot at 8th next year honestly if this design philosophy keeps up (and they retain members).

10. Boston Crusaders - HAVE to design with the corps means. I was worried about this year's show from the very first theatercast as being too hard to clean in time and that turned out to be the case. I loved the envelope-pushing, but you can't miss the forest for the trees. Make sure it's a program you can max out when the time comes!

11. Crossmen - So glad to see them back in the top 12 this year. Nothing but good things happening there as far as I can tell.

12. Madison Scouts - I can't drop them out of the top 12 because they perform too well, but this year's show was the biggest "miss" of the finalist corps of 2014. A major design revamp is needed.

Honorable mention to Troopers, whom I wish could crack back in, but they'll have to take another big step up in design.

[Madcityscout]

Don't know if you have noticed or not, but Madison has made major design changes recently for the better. People are coming back from other coots that were there when they were winning.

[Tad_MMA]

I will just predict SCV... (not necessarily a prediction, more like a desire)

I would like them to do a show based on Chicago the Musical or revisit Fiddler on the Roof (I've always wanted to see the Bottle Dance live.

Either that or I would predict that they will include a show that has "The Canyon" by Phillip Glass.

Fiddler or The Canyon are safe prognostications, as Vanguard hasn't attempted anything original (or gutsy) in many years. They'll probably redo 2005's show.

[tesmusic]

Don't know if you have noticed or not, but Madison has made major design changes recently for the better. People are coming back from other coots that were there when they were winning.

I'm actually shocked there haven't been any amended predictions or new ones based on this.

I'm calling Scouts top 6 based on the announcements that we've had so far. Too much talent in the staff and members, and yes there was a lot of talent in both areas as well, I just have more confidence.

[Phan_of_Drumming]

I'm actually shocked there haven't been any amended predictions or new ones based on this.

I'm calling Scouts top 6 based on the announcements that we've had so far. Too much talent in the staff and members, and yes there was a lot of talent in both areas as well, I just have more confidence.

A brand new staff doesn't just pull a Top 6 show out of their back pocket after a single year. I see Madison moving up, but five spots? I think they'll be glad to break Top 8. Getting back to sitting at a comfortable 8th or 9th would be a pretty significant accomplishment this year for them, given the movement of the last few years. After the staff has had a chance to work together for a summer or two, then Madison can talk about breaking into the upper echelon. I just don't see them anywhere close to there yet.

Edited August 27, 2014 by Phan_of_Drumming

[Phan_of_Drumming]

My way too early predictions.

1. The Cadets - Say what you will about last year or what happened at Finals or what not . . . a pi$$ed off George Hopkins can do some pretty terrifying things. And by terrifying, I mean awesome. This is a corps that is hungry and has the talent and staff to pull off a championship calibre show. Combine that with a returning class that has a chip on their collective shoulders, and I think you have a VERY dangerous corps.

2. Blue Devils - Nine years out of ten, I give the Blue Devils the nod to win the championship. They have a ridiculous amount of talent, combined with a design staff that consistently knows how to best feature that talent and put out some truly mind-blowing shows. That said, how do you follow an undefeated, championship year where you just received the highest score in DCI history? The fact that I have to justify putting BD in second - and not in first - is a testament to how incredible their last few years have been. That said, I think after a year like this one there has to be something of a let down. Because what more do they have to prove? This is the best corps in DCI right now. Period. And everyone knows it. I don't think BD will ever become complacent; but I also don't see them having the same fire in the belly that they had after the 2013 season. They don't have anything more to prove to anyone.

3. Santa Clara Vanguard - After a few years of very consistent placement and show design, I'm hoping SCV comes out with something a little more ballsy and dramatic this time around. Between the killer battery and front ensemble, and a steadily improving visual program, I think they nab the bronze medal after a lot of back-and-forth with the Bluecoats.

4. Bluecoats - What more can be said after their 2014 season? This past summer was a lightning-in-a-bottle type season for the Bluecoats, which would probably have won in any year without an angry BD, but which will be almost impossible to repeat. They'll still be fan favorites and I think they'll go back and forth with SCV, but I think they lose the percussion score by just enough to drop to fourth place.

5. The Cavaliers - They're ready to break into the true upper echelon, but who do you knock out? The talent in the upper level groups is just too high right now for the men in green to make a move. But I think they continue their forward momentum and build on another great program, maybe setting up a medal contender for 2016?

6. Carolina Crown - Incredible brass, but lackluster percussion and a repetitive visual program isn't enough to keep up with the big boys anymore. The Blue Devils showed this summer that Crown's brass isn't invincible, and unless Crown comes out with something truly unique, I don't see their design being able to overtake any of the above corps. I want to be wrong with this prediction more than any other - but I don't see Crown deviating too far from the formula they've been using since 2012, and I think it will cost them.

7. Blue Stars - This corps has all the right pieces in place to make a move to the next level. They have the design staff and they have the talent, the only question is whether the design staff lets the talent shine by writing a show that truly challenges the corps to reach its fullest potential. Between a killer guard (remember - 4th at finals despite going on 9th to last!), one of the best front ensembles in DCI, and the musical writing of Saucedo/Mapes/Grom, I think this corps is poised to make a leap into the next "tier." The only thing that might hold them back is their brass, which hopefully they'll address with a new caption head.

8. Blue Knights - Like the Bluecoats, I thought this year was a phenomenal, lightning-in-a-bottle type year for the corps, which I think will be tough to repeat. I don't see Blue Knights dropping much at all, and I think they'll be right in the fight for Top 7 with Blue Stars, but I don't see another magical, emotional power-house like they produced this year. They certainly have the talent to push even higher, though, so I hope that I'm mistaken.

9. Phantom Regiment - Phantom just seems like a corps stuck in a rut right now. Absurdly high levels of talent, but without any real vision in the design department to let that talent shine through. There's a reason that everyone says their shows have been the same since 2011; it has felt like a copy-and-paste show for the last few years from them, and without something to shake up the formula I don't think Phantom sees any significant reward from the judges.

10. Madison Scouts - Major staff overhauls have set them up well to move back into the Top 8-ish range. But that many new staff will take some time to mesh and find their rhythm. I think Madison avoids what has been their tendency of the last few years to start strong and fade in late July; but I don't think they knock off Phantom or Blue Knights. This year is largely about reversing downward momentum for Madison, and I think they accomplish that goal admirably, setting themselves up well for a stronger 2016.

11. Boston Crusaders - Angering the powers-that-be and then losing some crucial staff is a really great way to risk falling out of Finals. Boston has too much talent and pride to let that happen in its 75th anniversary season, but I think it will be a harder test than they realize.

12. Crossmen - Another dogfight year for the 12-14 corps. Troopers and Colts both have the talent to take this spot away from the Crossmen, but right now it belongs to them and someone is going to have to take it from them. The battle for the last Finals spot is my favorite competitive action every season. The quality of shows from this range of placements is incredible, and I sincerely hope for a three-way tie for 12th place on Friday night.

Edited August 27, 2014 by Phan_of_Drumming

[Roark1]

My way too early predictions.

1. The Cadets - Say what you will about last year or what happened at Finals or what not . . . a pi$$ed off George Hopkins can do some pretty terrifying things. And by terrifying, I mean awesome. This is a corps that is hungry and has the talent and staff to pull off a championship calibre show. Combine that with a returning class that has a chip on their collective shoulders, and I think you have a VERY dangerous corps.

2. Blue Devils - Nine years out of ten, I give the Blue Devils the nod to win the championship. They have a ridiculous amount of talent, combined with a design staff that consistently knows how to best feature that talent and put out some truly mind-blowing shows. That said, how do you follow an undefeated, championship year where you just received the highest score in DCI history? The fact that I have to justify putting BD in second - and not in first - is a testament to how incredible their last few years have been. That said, I think after a year like this one there has to be something of a let down. Because what more do they have to prove? This is the best corps in DCI right now. Period. And everyone knows it. I don't think BD will ever become complacent; but I also don't see them having the same fire in the belly that they had after the 2013 season. They don't have anything more to prove to anyone.

3. Santa Clara Vanguard - After a few years of very consistent placement and show design, I'm hoping SCV comes out with something a little more ballsy and dramatic this time around. Between the killer battery and front ensemble, and a steadily improving visual program, I think they nab the bronze medal after a lot of back-and-forth with the Bluecoats.

4. Bluecoats - What more can be said after their 2014 season? This past summer was a lightning-in-a-bottle type season for the Bluecoats, which would probably have won in any year without an angry BD, but which will be almost impossible to repeat. They'll still be fan favorites and I think they'll go back and forth with SCV, but I think they lose the percussion score by just enough to drop to fourth place.

5. The Cavaliers - They're ready to break into the true upper echelon, but who do you knock out? The talent in the upper level groups is just too high right now for the men in green to make a move. But I think they continue their forward momentum and build on another great program, maybe setting up a medal contender for 2016?

6. Carolina Crown - Incredible brass, but lackluster percussion and a repetitive visual program isn't enough to keep up with the big boys anymore. The Blue Devils showed this summer that Crown's brass isn't invincible, and unless Crown comes out with something truly unique, I don't see their design being able to overtake any of the above corps. I want to be wrong with this prediction more than any other - but I don't see Crown deviating too far from the formula they've been using since 2012, and I think it will cost them.

7. Blue Stars - This corps has all the right pieces in place to make a move to the next level. They have the design staff and they have the talent, the only question is whether the design staff lets the talent shine by writing a show that truly challenges the corps to reach its fullest potential. Between a killer guard (remember - 4th at finals despite going on 9th to last!), one of the best front ensembles in DCI, and the musical writing of Saucedo/Mapes/Grom, I think this corps is poised to make a leap into the next "tier." The only thing that might hold them back is their brass, which hopefully they'll address with a new caption head.

8. Blue Knights - Like the Bluecoats, I thought this year was a phenomenal, lightning-in-a-bottle type year for the corps, which I think will be tough to repeat. I don't see Blue Knights dropping much at all, and I think they'll be right in the fight for Top 7 with Blue Stars, but I don't see another magical, emotional power-house like they produced this year. They certainly have the talent to push even higher, though, so I hope that I'm mistaken.

9. Phantom Regiment - Phantom just seems like a corps stuck in a rut right now. Absurdly high levels of talent, but without any real vision in the design department to let that talent shine through. There's a reason that everyone says their shows have been the same since 2011; it has felt like a copy-and-paste show for the last few years from them, and without something to shake up the formula I don't think Phantom sees any significant reward from the judges.

10. Madison Scouts - Major staff overhauls have set them up well to move back into the Top 8-ish range. But that many new staff will take some time to mesh and find their rhythm. I think Madison avoids what has been their tendency of the last few years to start strong and fade in late July; but I don't think they knock off Phantom or Blue Knights. This year is largely about reversing downward momentum for Madison, and I think they accomplish that goal admirably, setting themselves up well for a stronger 2016.

11. Boston Crusaders - Angering the powers-that-be and then losing some crucial staff is a really great way to risk falling out of Finals. Boston has too much talent and pride to let that happen in its 75th anniversary season, but I think it will be a harder test than they realize.

12. Crossmen - Another dogfight year for the 12-14 corps. Troopers and Colts both have the talent to take this spot away from the Crossmen, but right now it belongs to them and someone is going to have to take it from them. The battle for the last Finals spot is my favorite competitive action every season. The quality of shows from this range of placements is incredible, and I sincerely hope for a three-way tie for 12th place on Friday night.

A well thought out analysis and trending model, especially given the fact that it is still August, and we don’t even know who will be playing what yet. One thing is for sure, it will only get harder to get into and stay in the top six, and the 10-15 battle will be more difficult than ever.