20XXMM Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 (edited) A mixture of bold predictions and a dash of homer-ism, here's my predictions: 1st: Bluecoats - It finally happens. They win GE and Percussion. Third in Brass. Third in Guard. 2nd: Blue Devils - Can't drop them out of the Top 2. You just can't, until they give you a reason to. They win Brass. Second in Guard. Third in GE. 3rd: Crown - Still not sold on their percussion, which will keep them from the title. They win Guard. Second in GE. Second in Brass. 4th: SCV - I'm a bit of a homer here, but I absolutely adore the run of shows SCV has been on since 2012. They come in second for Percussion. 5th: Cadets - A bit of a drop for a show whose design seems a little all over the place right now. 6th: Blue Knights - I don't see them breaking into the Top 5 yet, but their year is coming. They give Cadets a scare and are a fan favorite. 7th: Blue Stars - Their percussion finally gets its due, and a design team that has been hit or miss nails it this year. They come third in Percussion. 8th: Madison Scouts - Back and forth with Blue Stars all year long, but slightly less demand keeps them in eighth. 9th: Cavaliers - I hope this show surprises me. Until then, I can't see them hanging with the Top 8. Large gap between them and Madison. 10th: Boston Crusaders - Back and forth with Cavies all season long with a show theme that looks and sounds good so far. 11th: Phantom Regiment - I hope I'm wrong here; I just don't think they'll be able to take a step forward this year. Too many other groups getting better. 12th: Crossmen - By a comfortable margin, the last Finalist corps. 13th: Academy - I'm choosing Academy as a dark horse to place higher than most think they will. 14th: Colts - They could end up pushing for a Finals spot, but I don't know enough to justify putting them higher than this. I hope they do! 15th: BDB - Blue Devils get their second group a step closer to Finals night. It will happen by the end of the decade. 16th: Pacific Crest - Like Colts, I could see this group being a lot higher OR a lot lower come Semi-Finals night. This is a good balance of the two. 17th: Troopers - Sorry, but this year looks like a major step back from a group that historically has been among my favorites. Those uniforms. Yuck. 18th: Oregon Crusaders - They're getting there, but still a long way to go in order to beat out entrenched names above them. 19th: Spirit of Atlanta - Not sure what's going on with this organization. I really hope they bounce back soon. 20th: Mandarins - The last corps I really feel comfortable predicting anything about. Interesting to see a corps that won the Ott last year and almost Sandford manage to drop out of contingent.In regards to the top 3 in percussion scores, 1st place wins percussion, 4th place in 2nd place and then 7th place reaches third in the same category? I personally believe they would have to move some corps around for this to even look plausible. Edited June 9, 2016 by 20XXMM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrumManTx Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Interesting to see a corps that won the Ott last year and almost Sandford manage to drop out of contingent. In regards to the top 3 in percussion scores, 1st place wins percussion, 4th place in 2nd place and then 7th place reaches third in the same category? I personally believe they would have to move some corps around for this to even look plausible. Blue Stars popped a 4th in guard in 2014. It can happen, though it's unlikely. I could see their percussion as high as 5th or 6th though. Front ensemble has been one of the best the past few years and the drums really delivered last year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjeffeory Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Interesting to see a corps that won the Ott last year and almost Sandford manage to drop out of contingent. In regards to the top 3 in percussion scores, 1st place wins percussion, 4th place in 2nd place and then 7th place reaches third in the same category? I personally believe they would have to move some corps around for this to even look plausible. ...but ...but you did the same thing in your prediction regarding Crown. This place can be brutual! We just have to enjoy the ride. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueStainGlass Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 2010 Phantom placed 6th and won drums. Just putting that out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
20XXMM Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 ...but ...but you did the same thing in your prediction regarding Crown. This place can be brutual! We just have to enjoy the ride. Crown won in 2013 and then dropped to 5th the following year. Blue Stars passing BD and Cadets will be a tough feat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phan_of_Drumming Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 (edited) Interesting to see a corps that won the Ott last year and almost Sandford manage to drop out of contingent. In regards to the top 3 in percussion scores, 1st place wins percussion, 4th place in 2nd place and then 7th place reaches third in the same category? I personally believe they would have to move some corps around for this to even look plausible. Fifth place is hardly out of contention, and it's only one placement different than last year. That being said, I completely understand and appreciate the immense amount of talent at the Cadets. I'm just worried about the show design - which is why that's what I mentioned in my placement for them. If their design equals their talent, they will be right up there for the gold. (Also, Cadets came in third in drums last year, not second.) As for Blue Stars, they came in 11th last year and finished 7th in percussion. If the corps goes up four places overall, it's hardly unimaginable to think their drums could do the same. Like DrumManTX said, they had one of the best front ensembles in DCI last year - and this year they have two age-outs from BD, and a lot of vets. If they live up to their potential they'll be the best front on the field this summer. Battery is loaded with vets this year, too. Edited June 9, 2016 by Phan_of_Drumming 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.E. Brigand Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 It's sort of odd, but MLB, which has no salary cap, has FAR more parity each season with its teams that make the playoffs, than the NFL, which has a salary cap, does regarding parity with teams that make its playoffs. I heard part of an interesting discussion of sports and parity on public radio a couple weeks ago, inspired by English soccer and the unexpected win of Leicester City. Let's see if I can find it . . . Yes, here it is, on "Freakonomics" Radio: The Longest Long Shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corpsband Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Crown won in 2013 and then dropped to 5th the following year. Blue Stars passing BD and Cadets will be a tough feat. Since Crown broke into medal contention I think they are 5-2 vs the Cadets at finals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRASSO Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 As for Blue Stars, they had one of the best front ensembles in DCI last year - and this year they have two age-outs from BD, Dennis Delucia sure won't be happy to learn of this ( its an inside joke, the dinos here know what I'm referring too.. haha! ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjeffeory Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 (edited) Crown won in 2013 and then dropped to 5th the following year. Blue Stars passing BD and Cadets will be a tough feat. Oh, you're going back to 2013 - 2014. Yea, but that year Crown's score was the highest 5th place score ever, and they were close to 3rd and 4th place all year. That kind of placement drop can happen to any corps in really competitive years, where a bunch of corps are close to one another. Just look to Bluecoats (2010-2011, 2005-2006, 2007-2008), Phantom (2008-2009), Madison Scouts (1988 - 1989), Cavaliers (2011-2012), and Cadets (1990-1991, 2005-2006). We WANT these kinds of years because it means that all the corps are good. I agree with what you just said about Blue Stars passing BD and Cadets. That would be difficult. As would Blue Knights beating these two corps. I was commenting on the fact that you think it's "ok" for Crown to drop to fifth place THIS year, but putting Cadets there is beyond the pale THIS year... Any corps can have an off year and is just as likely as any other corps to drop a couple or even three placements. Even Blue Devils had one bad year where they went from 2nd (98.800) to 4th (95.250) (2004-2005). I just don't agree that this will be the case THIS year based on the products I've seen. ..and also Cadets were 4th last year while Crown was 2nd. Cadets could jump several spots, or they could fall one spot to 5th and it wouldn't be seen as unexpected. It would seem a little more unexpected THIS year for Crown or Blue Devils, but not impossible, especially if Bluecoats and Cadets have really great years. Looks like we can all use the numbers to make predictions that we like, but I think we should apply our logic equally to all corps. Besides, judging isn't an exact science, it's a popularity contest between the corps and the judges. Edited June 9, 2016 by jjeffeory 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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