2016 Prediction Thread

[BoyWonder1911]

I did pick Academy to make it, though, and Bloo the win.

[N.E. Brigand]

The past few years, I made my predictions in January. This year, I've been too busy with other matters to pay much attention to the corps' plans for 2016, so I'm about as ignorant now as I might ordinarily have been six months ago.

The safest prediction always is that few corps will move more than two positions from their placements last year. (The average seasonal change in position for the top 25 corps is 1.8 places for 2011-2015. It has been declining slowly. It was 2.2 for 2001-2005, 2.4 for 1991-1995, and 2.6 for 1981-1985.) I think every year since 2011, I've predicted BD in third and predicted a tie in Finals, and I haven't been right yet, so why change now?

[ . . . list copied below . . . ]

As always, what I would like more than anything is to be wrong.

Well, I don't seem to do much better predicting blind in June than I do predicting blind in January. Correct placements are in bold.

1. Bluecoats

2. Cadets = -4

3. Blue Devils = +1

4. Carolina Crown = +1

5. Blue Knights (tie) = -2 [and no tie]

5. Santa Clara Vanguard (tie) = +1 [and no tie]

7. Madison Scouts = -6

8. Cavaliers = +3

9. Phantom Regiment = +1

10. Blue Stars = +1

11. Troopers = -3

12. Boston Crusaders

13. Academy = +2

14. Crossmen = +4

15. Colts = -1

16. Spirit of Atlanta = -5

17. Oregon Crusaders = -1

18. Blue Devils B = +3

19. Pacific Crest

20. Vanguard Cadets

21. Mandarins = +4

22. Cascades

23. Legends = -1

24. Pioneer = -5

25. Genesis = +2

26. Jersey Surf

27. 7th Regiment = -1

28. Spartans = +3

29. Music City = +3

30. Gold

31. Louisiana Stars

32. Colt Cadets = -5

33. River City Rhythm = -1

34. Impulse = -2

35. Raiders = +2

36. Guardians = +4

37. Shadow = +2

38. Racine Scouts = n/a

39. Les Stentors [finished 38th of 38 in Prelims]