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2018 Predictions


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8 hours ago, Ediker said:

Don't you love looking at charts?  

Below is a chart I made of the current Top 12's placements for the past 15 years.  While the average movement might be a spot or two, there are some pretty dramatic moves for individual corps.  Boston made a significant jump in 2017, but there have been others (Blue Stars 2008, Madison 2010, Crossmen 2012, Cadets 2011)... not to mention some of the big drops.  It's true that many of the current Top 12 were in the mix 15 years ago, so not much movement in that regard.

 

Q7N6BG0.png

Interesting how up and down Cadets have been...

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26 minutes ago, karuna said:

Another way to look at the same data (only 10 years worth in this case).  Charts bring out the inner nerd in me.

zqxgKLn.png

 

Awesome!  Yeah, this is a similar one I made for the original prediction thread... reposting here.  It shows, for any given placement, what the previous year's placement was.  For example, for 1st place, the lowest previous year placement was 5th... and the most frequent, 2nd (due mostly to BD).  

There is a clear drop off below 5th place. For example, 6th place is more likely to come from below than from the top 5.  Enjoy!

ZdgTc3i.png

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My first post in a very long time but I thought I'd take a stab with some preseason projections. I mainly used the very lovely graph that was posted a bit earlier to figure out average placement(AP) and average movement(AM) for each corp over the past 5 years and that is mostly what I am basing this off of with some gut feelings. Most of the numbers came out to decimals so I just rounded them to the nearest whole number. (.4 or below rounded down, .5 or above rounded up. Some corps will have same average placement so I made gut calls on those)

1. Blue Devils (AP= 1, AM=0) Could definitely see Crown taking top spot and history shows next year is a #2 year for BD but who knows!

2. Carolina Crown (AP=3, AM=0) As said above wouldn't be surprised to see Crown take the top spot this year!

3. Bluecoats (AP=3, AM=0) I see Bluecoats making a return to the medal stand this year. Maybe even in the mix for gold

4. Santa Clara Vanguard (AP=4, AM=1) Probably will be in the hunt to medal as well, and history shows they're looking upward so wouldn't be surprised to see them edge someone out

5. The Cavaliers(AP=6, AM=1) I think the Cavaliers secure 5th place, but a very strong 5th place, could be in medal contention as well

6. The Cadets(AP=5, AM=-1) Looks as tho the Cadets break back into the top 6 and I believe it's possible, but Boston could be one to take that spot once again

7. Boston Crusaders (AP=9, AM=0) Boston caught lightning in a bottle last year and jumped 6 places in one year. But I can see just looking in from the outside of the top 6 this year but can also see them taking that 6th spot

8. Blue Knights (AP=8, AM=0) Improve upon last year but too much in the top 7 to overcome

9. Phantom Regiment (AP=7, AM=-1) Same as BK but too much too overcome right now, could see them swapping places with Blue Knights though

10. Madison Scouts (AP 11, AM=-1) Anniversary year so could see them jumping a few places with the right show

11. Blue Stars (AP=10, AM=0) Looks like Blue Stars will fall at about 11th place

12. Crossmen (AP= 12, AM=0) Crossmen round out the top 12 but could also see them out this year

Now these are just from history and some gut feelings and predictions! I will most definitely have different opinions once the season starts but just wanted to try this out for now! Hope no one takes this seriously :biggrin:

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15 minutes ago, Ediker said:

Awesome!  Yeah, this is a similar one I made for the original prediction thread... reposting here.  It shows, for any given placement, what the previous year's placement was.  For example, for 1st place, the lowest previous year placement was 5th... and the most frequent, 2nd (due mostly to BD).  

There is a clear drop off below 5th place. For example, 6th place is more likely to come from below than from the top 5.  Enjoy!

ZdgTc3i.png

I was working on my reply for so long, I didn't even see you guys make this. Hope I didn't step on any toes!! :innocent:

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Really wanna say Crown’s gonna take it this year, but I really think this will be another BD year. I do need to hear what Crown is putting out first though. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to be shocked by Cadets this year.  I don’t think there’s a corps who wants to prove something more than them this year. I really don’t see them staying in 7th but... we’ll see. My wild cards are Bloo and Cavies... in a way I don’t really know what to expect from them. SCV will be good but... just don’t see it for them (unpopular opinion I know) 

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58 minutes ago, OhioBoy_99 said:

I was working on my reply for so long, I didn't even see you guys make this. Hope I didn't step on any toes!! :innocent:

Not at all!  Crunching numbers and making guesses is the best we can do for the next three weeks. 

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2 hours ago, johnpendell said:

SCV will be good but... just don’t see it for them (unpopular opinion I know) 

i couldn't agree more

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