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2018 Predictions


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Here is a statistical analysis based on corps first score of the season, the highest score in prelims, semis, or finals and the point increase from first score to highest score of the season. I did this going back 16 seasons.  I used this to predict the 2017 score (using a past known to test my hypothesis) and then went ahead and predicted 2018 based on the first scores. Overall, there are just too many variables to get an accurate prediction.  Variables that can be measured but are unknown are number of returning corp members, age of corp members, number of returning staff, age of staff, etc.  Not to mention variables that are that are not quantitative...anyone drop out mid season, heart and hard work of the members, etc.  In summary, the higher you start in score and be better you are at improving over the season, then the better chance you have of making finals...in other words, it already tells us what we already know.  I do this kind of stuff for a living so I enjoyed the mental exercise.

 

 

 

Edited by Drumcorpdad62
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Just now, Drumcorpdad62 said:

Sorry, I have a photo to post but can't figure out how to post it.  If someone knows how please reply.

 

Easiest way to post a photo is through the DrumScorps app

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41 minutes ago, Drumcorpdad62 said:

Here is a statistical analysis based on corps first score of the season, the highest score in prelims, semis, or finals and the point increase from first score to highest score of the season. I did this going back 16 seasons.   

Since the chart was removed, only 6 out of 16 corps in 2017 finished where you estimated they would.  Don't think Vegas will like those odds.  Yes, variables come into play, but it seems like the five year average of points gained by all corps from their first show to their last show of the year doesn't mean much.  Glad Boston was able to do better than the average last year.

Edited by Ghost
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I predict that by the time I’m back in the US on July 13, I’m not even gonna recognize some of the shows I’ve seen.  

I bet the transformations are gonna be amazing. 

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1 hour ago, KVG_DC said:

I predict that by the time I’m back in the US on July 13, I’m not even gonna recognize some of the shows I’ve seen.  

I bet the transformations are gonna be amazing. 

Safe travels.  I predict a hell of a season ahead.

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31 minutes ago, DrumManTx said:

Not gonna make any placement predictions, but I can tell this is going to be one of my favorite seasons of the modern era having seen most of the shows now.  Holy wow.  What an amazing year for drum corps.  

I know what I'm thinkin'... I'm just reluctant to put it in print...

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44 minutes ago, DrumManTx said:

Not gonna make any placement predictions, but I can tell this is going to be one of my favorite seasons of the modern era having seen most of the shows now.  Holy wow.  What an amazing year for drum corps.  

To perhaps the only person in the Boston area who is not complaining about the heat and perhaps thinks we’re wimps for doing so, you may not be making predictions but I bet you have a favorite!

Looking forward to catching up with you either tonight, tomorrow, or Tuesday. 

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