Ghost Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 1 hour ago, DCI-86 said: Do Blue Devils ever get a draw that doesn’t have them going on last ;-) With 18 championships and the highest average seedings in the history of DCI, not too often. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PopcornEater1963 Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 27 minutes ago, Ghost said: With 18 championships and the highest average seedings in the history of DCI, not too often. But still...don't they possess a 33% chance just like the other two in the 1-3 draw? Seems like they "beat the odds"...I don't really care, but it doesn't matter how many championships you've won if you are in a field of 3 to be drawn...you should have a 1/3 chance of drawing the closing slot. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GREENBLUE Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 35 minutes ago, PopcornEater1963 said: But still...don't they possess a 33% chance just like the other two in the 1-3 draw? Seems like they "beat the odds"...I don't really care, but it doesn't matter how many championships you've won if you are in a field of 3 to be drawn...you should have a 1/3 chance of drawing the closing slot. Agreed. Feels like year after year, show after show when I look at the drawn slots BD gets the coveted final time. On the other hand I was surprised the Cavaliers got the last slot in their grouping. That doesn’t happen often. Thought for sure I was going to see Cavies/Boston/Crown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cappybara Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 1 hour ago, PopcornEater1963 said: But still...don't they possess a 33% chance just like the other two in the 1-3 draw? Seems like they "beat the odds"...I don't really care, but it doesn't matter how many championships you've won if you are in a field of 3 to be drawn...you should have a 1/3 chance of drawing the closing slot. That’s not quite how probabilities work. Yes every corps in the final grouping has a 33% chance for that last spot, but you won’t necessarily see an even split until you have a massive, massive sample size. In the same way that when you flip a coin 10 times, it does not necessarily mean that 5 times it will be heads and the other 5 tails 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluzes Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 3 hours ago, Cadevilina Crown said: Prelims will be based on the average of each corps’ SA/ATL/Atown regional scores. For all the talk about not being able to judge across shows isn't that what dci is doing in Allentown? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcjordansc Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 37 minutes ago, GREENBLUE said: Agreed. Feels like year after year, show after show when I look at the drawn slots BD gets the coveted final time. On the other hand I was surprised the Cavaliers got the last slot in their grouping. That doesn’t happen often. Thought for sure I was going to see Cavies/Boston/Crown. I would need to see historical evidence that this is true. I do not know how often Blue Devils have been given the final performance slot based on the random draw, but I am guessing it is less than you think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 1 hour ago, PopcornEater1963 said: But still...don't they possess a 33% chance just like the other two in the 1-3 draw? Yes, you're correct. That would be a good assignment to plot the BD history, but probably hard to get all the starting positions over the years needed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GREENBLUE Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Bluzes said: For all the talk about not being able to judge across shows isn't that what dci is doing in Allentown? Same judges both nights. Been that way for as long as I can remember. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluzes Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, GREENBLUE said: Same judges both nights. Been that way for as long as I can remember. Doesn't madder different weather conditions, crowd reactions and another day of practice for the Saturday's show. In a game of 100ths of a point little things do make a difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GREENBLUE Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 I’d have to double check but don’t remember there being many issues. Seems like the placements from prior shows remain the same or if not maybe a few tenths difference. When you average the three regionals together to get the prelims slot it would have to be drastic to really change the order. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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