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2019 Predictions!


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2 hours ago, CrownBariDad said:

I think ALL the judges are either on the sidelines or press box. None actually on the field with the members. 

I wonder if that’s going to be distracting if you sit in say, the first row? 

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1 hour ago, LabMaster said:

C'mon now, they were different words (variety) and they were spelled correctly.  "Found" was pretty cool.  But I get your point.  Maybe no words this year.  Just slingshots.

yes, maybe those resulting words might be penalized. 

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Since this is a prediction thread, how about an actual prediction...😉

Without knowing everyone's music/theme, this is a shot in the dark.  Likely tight competition at the top and in the 10-16 range.  Could be one of those years like 2007 where a top 5-caliber show places 7th.  So doing my best to balance emotion and reason:

15. Academy - loved their show last year, pretty much holding in place

14. Madison Scouts - slowly working their way back up with a young group and a much more crowd-friendly entry

13. Spirit of Atlanta - knocking on the door yet again

12. Phantom Regiment - in a by a whisker

11. Blue Knights - not knowing much about them it's hard to say if they are recapturing the momentum from years past

10. Crossmen - a dark horse to move up, hopefully another great music book

9. Mandarins - their flavor really seems to be catching on

8. Blue Stars - perhaps another stretch like 2008-2010

7. Cadets - looks to be much improved yet again but the groups above just have too much of an edge

6. Cavaliers - I really would like to see them higher and was a huge fan of their (admittedly over-designed) show last year...but hearing too much hype from the other groups

5. Bluecoats - Ok, as an alum I am officially hedging my bets...can they find and max out another cool off-the-wall concept?  Is percussion regrouping after last year's dropoff?  Hard to figure with this intense cone of silence.

4. Boston Crusaders - This staff sure knows how to make a show flow so seamlessly...if the music captions are stepping up as have been reported and the guard remains on top this one could be very interesting

3. Vanguard - It seems the pattern for non-BD groups after winning a championship is to double down on all the effects that got you there, with mixed results...can't really count them out with Gaines in the mix

2. Crown - Thank you CC for introducing such wicked awesome tunes to the field this year and they are finally hitting their stride

1. Blue Devils - Hearing the pre-season clips left me feeling that once again they have the winning concept and book (plus they seem really PO'ed after last year)

Very excited to see how this all shakes out!  I honestly think we are entering a golden era of 21st century drum corps.

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2 hours ago, Terri Schehr said:

I wonder if that’s going to be distracting if you sit in say, the first row? 

IDK -- Maybe less than if they were running in and out of sets.

BUT -- they DID help keep the field clear of sticks, shakos, and the occasional snare drum. 🙂

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On 6/11/2019 at 12:16 PM, Ediker said:

In spite of the many things the [BAC] designers got right in 2018, doubling up on the previous year's gimmicks, while artistically appropriate, failed on Originality and Creativity... words that come directly from the GE Visual score sheet.  It was painful to watch Boston in a dead heat for 5-6, while unable to even dent corps 1-4 in GE scores.  I wanted them to be more competitive.  The judges just weren't buying it.  

By all indications, it appears that mistake will not be repeated.  Goliath can put Boston back on track.  I can't wait to see/hear the great things in store for this summer.  

I've been mulling this. Such an instruction on the sheets would seem to contribute to the rigidity we tend to see in placements from year to year.

"Originality," compared to what? Other corps competing during the current season only? Compared only to the other corps at that particular contest on that night? "Creativity," compared to what? The state of the activity, in its entirety, as it exists during this single summer only?

Unlikely.  How is any single judge able to have assessed everything else that is out there this season, until maybe Allentown? And anyway, a 2019 corps doing a faithful revival of Anycorps '74 would be "original" compared to every other 2019 corps. These days, G bugles and color presentations would be "creative" -- when compared only to other programs on the 2019 circuit.

No, "orginality" and "creativity" are computed from the input of previous years. Rewarding it may indeed result in innovation, and there's plenty of evidence on the field these days to make a strong case for that assertion. Rewarding it doesn't, however, necessarily produce competitive dynamism.

What is this year's yardstick of originality? The top-performing corps of last year.
What was last year's yardstick of originality? The top-performing corps of the previous year.
What was the previous year's yardstick of originality? The top-performing corps of the year before that.
Etc.

It's a closed, self-referential loop. Success this year is largely defined by the successful of last year. At a minimum, this is a built-in competitive advantage for last year's top corps. They head into each year having defined the current standard of originality and creativity. This advantage would seem to be especially pronounced early in the season, when judges have little else to compare "originality" and "creativity" against -- further cementing the advantage that last year's top corps have over this year's lower-ranked corps. By the time your 15th-place corps has had a chance to hit a couple regionals and  prove how "creative" it is, the spreads against last year's Top 12 are already baked in.

It's not an impenetrable loop. See: Mandarins. But we've seen this one-hit-wonder phenomenon before. See: Academy. For corps like them, breaking into the top is more like adjudication roulette than adjudication merit.

Competitive stasis -- argued endlessly on this forum in other places -- is not grounded in any single factor. It's the product of several factors. The culture of finals is one, which I have argued elsewhere. Another, I argue here, is the judging sheet itself.

Edited by 2muchcoffeeman
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On 6/11/2019 at 7:08 PM, xandandl said:

yes

they have a certain zone they can wander in. not thrilled from what i hear

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8 minutes ago, Jeff Ream said:

they have a certain zone they can wander in. not thrilled from what i hear

I'm really curious to hear how the drum books read. So far I've heard individual lines but the only two groups I've heard within the entire corps ensemble have been Boston and Phantom and both sounded sloshy to me because of the venue. It's going to be interesting to see if the books get watered down this year or if the battery comes up front more. 

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1 hour ago, 2muchcoffeeman said:

I've been mulling this. Such an instruction on the sheets would seem to contribute to the rigidity we tend to see in placements from year to year.

"Originality," compared to what? Other corps competing during the current season only? Compared only to the other corps at that particular contest on that night? "Creativity," compared to what? The state of the activity, in its entirety, as it exists during this single summer only?

Unlikely.  How is any single judge able to have assessed everything else that is out there this season, until maybe Allentown? And anyway, a 2019 corps doing a faithful revival of Anycorps '74 would be "original" compared to every other 2019 corps. These days, G bugles and color presentations would be "creative" -- when compared only to other programs on the 2019 circuit.

No, "orginality" and "creativity" are computed from the input of previous years. Rewading it may indeed result in innovation, and there's plenty of evidence on the field these days to make a strong case for that assertion. Rewarding it doesn't, however, necessarily produce competitive dynamism.

What is this year's yardstick of originality? The top-performing corps of last year.
What was last year's yardstick of originality? The top-performing corps of the previous year.
What was the previous year's yardstick of originality? The top-performing corps of the year before that.
Etc.

It's a closed, self-referential loop. Success this year is largely defined by the successful of last year. At a minimum, this is a built-in competitive advantage for last year's top corps. They head into each year having defined the current standard of originality and creativity. This advantage would seem to be especially pronounced early in the season, when judges have little else to compare "originality" and "creativity" against -- further cementing the advantage that last year's top corps have over this year's lower-ranked corps. By the time your 15th-place corps has had a chance to hit a couple regionals and  prove how "creative" it is, the spreads against last year's Top 12 are already baked in.

It's not an impenetrable loop. See: Mandarins. But we've seen this one-hit-wonder phenomenon before. See: Academy. For corps like them, breaking into the top is more like adjudication roulette than adjudication merit.

Competitive stasis -- argued endlessly on this forum in other places -- is not grounded in any single factor. It's the product of several factors. The culture of finals is one, which I have argued elsewhere. Another, I argue here, is the judging sheet itself.

i think it was more than just the fire gimmick again

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