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2019 Predictions!


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41 minutes ago, craiga said:

My prediction for DCI Detroit 6/20/19:

 

1. Boston 71.2

2.Bluecoats 71.0

3. Cadets 69.1

4. Crown 69.0

5.Blue Stars 68.5

6. Phantom Regiment 67.0

Based on nothing... I think Crown will be technically more formidable than that.  I would be surprised if they aren't winning a caption or two on opening night.  That's really the trouble with Bluecoats... is that they have only ever really claimed championship fame on GE.  Boston can say more than that (from last year) in objective, technical captions (even though they have not won a championship).  For Bluecoats to be as competitive as you have there (and I certainly hope they can be), they really, really need to win some other technical captions.  I think Crown is going to be more technically/musically competitive this year... merely as a reaction to the past few times out.

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2 hours ago, Glenn426 said:

   There is so much pressure on the corps to be great again and the only way to win again is to completely re-invent yourself and present a completely different unique Innovative way to design. 

You mentioned M. Gaines later in your post about their great run in the early 2000's so that goes against your thoughts above.  Their music was not very difficult and Gaines kept writing great drill.  Garfield had a three out of four run in the 80's without re-inventing themselves.  It took a few years for the other corps to get closer to what Zingali was doing.  The BD have had some great stretches of first/seconds by just having their three sections executing better than the other corps with better shows.  

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7 minutes ago, Ghost said:

You mentioned M. Gaines later in your post about their great run in the early 2000's so that goes against your thoughts above.  Their music was not very difficult and Gaines kept writing great drill.  Garfield had a three out of four run in the 80's without re-inventing themselves.  It took a few years for the other corps to get closer to what Zingali was doing.

Yeah I agree.  In fact... I think corps lose out more quickly after a win WHEN they react by reinventing themselves.  Lately, when you look at corps sliding placement from 1st to 4th or 5th, I think you can make the case that the cause for that is due to other groups stepping up and playing a similar game as the previous champ (Bluecoats influenced GE in a huge way in just one year).  Cadets had done this many times over in the decades prior.

Cavies through the 2000's was a great example of winning with great shows and sticking to the formula.  Crown from 2013 to 2014 was a good example of reinvention not paying off.  I think you could easily say that the Blue Devils haven't demonstrated a tendency to change quickly.  They morph somewhat slowly and rely heavily on their known assets (in design and technical approach).

I don't think we can really make perfect blanket assessments on 'how to keep winning'... But I would argue that corps that had streaks of wins usually did so by sticking to the trade marks rather than starting from scratch the following year.

Edited by cfirwin3
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5 minutes ago, cfirwin3 said:

Yeah I agree.  In fact... I think corps lose out more quickly after a win WHEN they react by reinventing themselves.  Lately, when you look at corps sliding placement from 1st to 4th or 5th, I think you can make the case that cause for that is that other groups stepped up and played a similar game as the previous champ.

Cavies through the 2000's was a great example of winning with great shows and sticking to the formula.  Crown from 2013 to 2014 was a good example of reinvention not paying off.  I think you could easily say that the Blue Devils haven't demonstrated a tendency to change quickly.  They morph somewhat slowly and rely heavily on their known assets (in design and technical approach).

I don't think we can really make perfect blanket assessments on 'how to keep winning'... But I would argue that corps that had streaks of wins usually did so by sticking to the trade marks rather than starting from scratch the following year.

All good points. Look at BD from 2014 to now. They always look for the things they do that work and try to incorporate those into their shows while adding a few new wrinkles. Some folks are too focused on innovation, when perhaps the focus should be on what works and performance.  The few innovative aspects of a show will be minimal when compared to the basic ingredients we see in most shows (marching, brass, drums, guard, staging, etc.). 

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25 minutes ago, cfirwin3 said:

Based on nothing... I think Crown will be technically more formidable than that.  I would be surprised if they aren't winning a caption or two on opening night.  

Very much agree. Carolina looks pretty clean for this time of the summer, especially their first two segments. Their brass already feels Ott worthy to me, and percussion is really good. I also think guard is a major step up from last year. I love the music and the show GE feels like it can take them somewhere, which to me has been the missing link for them (along with guard) the last few seasons. This is a dangerous corps this year. Definitely top 3 potential. 

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1 minute ago, jwillis35 said:

All good points. Look at BD from 2014 to now. They always look for the things they do that work and try to incorporate those into their shows while adding a few new wrinkles. Some folks are too focused on innovation, when perhaps the focus should be on what works and performance.  The few innovative aspects of a show will be minimal when compared to the basic ingredients we see in most shows (marching, brass, drums, guard, staging, etc.). 

This kind of relates to some of the assertions that people were making about significant staff members.  There was a comment made a while back about Gaines being the one that wins it for SCV (as if he set everything right single-handedly).  I'm sure Gaines would disagree with that suggestion.  The truth is that he was merely a linchpin figure that rounded out the field of great staffing and approach.  To say that SCV couldn't win without Gaines is no more true than saying that they couldn't win without Shaw, Rennick(s), Woodley, etc.

For the Bluecoats... Jim Moore was perhaps the linchpin... but this could only be true because of Thrower, Rarick, etc.  Without the "long haul", tested and proven stuff (and PEOPLE)... no single person does the job.  Not by a long shot.

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33 minutes ago, cfirwin3 said:

Based on nothing... I think Crown will be technically more formidable than that.  I would be surprised if they aren't winning a caption or two on opening night.  That's really the trouble with Bluecoats... is that they have only ever really claimed championship fame on GE.  Boston can say more than that (from last year) in objective, technical captions (even though they have not won a championship).  For Bluecoats to be as competitive as you have there (and I certainly hope they can be), they really, really need to win some other technical captions.  I think Crown is going to be more technically/musically competitive this year... merely as a reaction to the past few times out.

This always me worry going into a season with Bloo. I know they are a GE juggernaut as they have proven time and time again but never know how they will fair in other captions.  But at the same time, Bloo "needing to be competitive" in other captions has never been a problem. Have they ever won a caption on finals night? No. But do they win captions over the course of the season and consistently place top 3 in captions on finals night? Yes. Bloo holds their weight in captions and is a reason they have won the night of premiere the last two (three?) years and medaled the last 4 out of 5 years. But I do agree that this year seems to be more tight than ever. It'll be a dog fight! I can't wait! 

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