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2019 Predictions!


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On 8/12/2018 at 12:56 PM, ThePlanets said:

My predictions are based off of patterns since 08. What surprised me in 2018 was the rise of SOA and the fall of Madison. Everything else seemed in check. I think I had the top 3 right with my non-bold prediction thread.

1. BD

2. Bluecoats

3. Boston

4. Crown

5. SCV

6. Cadets

7. Cavaliers

8. Blue Stars

9. BK

10. SOA

11. Phantom

12. Crossmen

13. Mandarins

14. Academy

15. Music City

16. Troop

17. Colts

18. PC

19. Madison

20. Genesis

21. OC

22. Surf

23. Cascades

24. Pio...if they don't move down.

Here is my updated realistic top 25... really hoping things settle down from this hectic week...not encouraged by what's going on currently.

1. BD. This is going to happen unless another corps can step up and break the mold/pattern BD has had going since 07. Finish range 1-4

2. Bluecoats- they will fix their short term percussion issues and make a run for gold. Finish range 1-7

3. Boston- I feel like they weren't quite with the top 4 in 2018 but they were darn good and are trending up...finish range 2-7

4. Carolina Crown- I loved 18 but their shows just haven't had that freshness in a few years. With long term percussion issues fixed and a very competitive hornline I think they could finish 1-7

5. SCV- This is completely based off of the 07-18 pattern and the bottom range for them. 2018 was a special show and otherwise they typically finish in the 4-5 range. But this is one Corp that could break the mold....BUT 09 PR finished 9th, 11 Cadets finished 4th, 14 Crown finished 5th, 17 Bluecoats finished 5th. Realistic finish range 1-5.

6. Cadets- slow regrowth. They rise from all the craziness. Realistic range 5-10

7. Cavaliers- they have been somewhat of a dark horse the past few years and O think they could do better this year but they can also get stale. Range 3-10

8. BK- I love BK and there is so much potential for this group but they never seem to make the top tier cut. Here is to hoping BK moves up and not down this year. Range 6-12

9. Mandarins- Are they for real or was 2018 special? Realistic finish range???

10. Blue Stars- range 7-12

11. PR- Oh how I long for the PR of old. There were some really nice moments in 18...but... Finish range 9-14

12. SOA

13. Academy

14 Crossmen

15 MCDC

16 Madison

17 Troop

18 Colts

19 PC

20 OC champ

21 Genesis

22 OC 2nd place

23 OC 3rd place

24 Cascades

25 Surf

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1-3:

1. Santa Clara Vanguard 

2. Carolina Crown

3. Blue Devils

Vanguard’s show last year was absolutely amazing, and with the staff that they have, I think they make something even better (maybe a new record?). As for Crown and BD, I think Crown’s design team will produce a really good story, and the Blue Devils will try too hard with their design, ending up with a third place finish.

4-9:

4. Bluecoats

5. Boston Crusaders

6. Cadets

7. Cavaliers

8. Blue Stars

9. Blue Knights

Not much to say here; Bluecoats are in 4th because of Carolina Crown moving up, and I swapped Cadets and Cavaliers because I think a less dramatic offseason will benefit the Cadets. 

10-15:

10. Crossmen 

11. Mandarins

12. Phantom Regiment 

13. Colts 

14. Spirit of Atlanta

15. Academy

I truly think any of these corps could make finals in 2019. The spread between 10th and 15th on prelims night was only 2.737 points, which I think could be made up by any of the corps. As for the placement I have here, I think that the Crossmen will have a better overall design and better overall execution, earning them a 10th place finish. I also think that Mandarins are too far up to drop out of finals, but I do predict a drop in scoring. As for Phantom, as much as I disliked the design from 2018, and the questions I have with the 2019 show, they won’t drop out of finals just yet. The other 3 corps were more random placement than anything, as I expect the spread there to be very small.

16-25:

16. Troopers

17. Madison Scouts

18. Music City

19. Pacific Crest

20. Gold

21. Genesis

22. Legends 

23. Spartans 

24. Cascades

25. Guardians

With the absence of Vanguard Cadets, Blue Devils B, and the Oregon Crusaders, this section is definitely the one with the most change. The Troopers are on top here, because I honestly see things getting worse before they start getting better for the Scouts. Music City also swaps with Pacific Crest, as I believe that Music City will create an even more enjoyable and well-designed program than last year. Legends swap with Spartans because I think that Legends will bounce back from being left out of semifinals in 2018. Guardians move into semifinals because I think they can do even better than they did with ###### in 2018.

26-35:

26. 7th Regiment 

27. Jersey Surf

28. Southwind

29. Louisiana Stars

30. River City Rhythm

31. Golden Empire

32. Shadow

33. Raiders

34. Colt Cadets

35. Heat Wave

Not much but random-ish placement here. 

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On 1/13/2019 at 9:21 PM, karuna said:

Crown's percussion is no longer a weakness.  

SCV is fortunate to have acquired Gaines.   He single-handedly put them back into contention.  Genius is a big advantage.  

I don't see Bluecoats going anywhere either.  They are as innovative as anyone in the top 4. 

Will be interesting to see what (if anything) BD does to separate themselves from this field.  

Gaines is not the sole reason SCV won last year, or returned to contention. That's a silly thing to say. Of course, he was a huge acquisition but he is merely one member of a team. Perhaps the biggest genius on that team (according to some), but it still takes more than one man. BD doesn't have 18 titles because of one man. They have 18 titles because they have managed to continually have great teams in place who help them maintain the highest level of consistency. It takes far more than one man or woman to put a corps back in contention. It takes a team. A consistent team. A team that collaborates together on the highest level - and that takes years to build, not months, not a season, years. SCV has that team in place now. BD has had that team in place for years. Does anyone else? No.

Bluecoats WERE as innovative as the top 4. I would even argue that from 2014-2016 they were the most innovative corps, perhaps in the history of the activity. They singlehandedly changed costuming for ever, which changed the presentation of body movement for the musical ensemble, as well as flinging the activity years into the future from that perspective, and I loved it. They elevated the use of electronics. They elevated the use of props (SCV took that elevation to a new level last year). The innovation ended in 2017, when they gave us Downside Up with a big jagged line. In 2018, having giant chairs on the field or a singer (as amazing as she was) featured throughout your entire show does not make innovation. Nor does playing a jazz show. There was nothing innovative from a musical or visual perspective about that show, although it sure as hell was one of the most entertaining shows of the season. It was fun to watch, but the very definition of innovation is what the Bluecoats did 2014-2016. They very definition of innovation is leading the pack. No other corps next year is going to emulate things the 2018 Bluecoats did, like we saw the 2016 Bluecoats do. At least not nearly on that level. I hope they find their way back to leading the activity, because I think modern drum corps has reached such spectacular heights because of what they did 2014-2016. I am probably more thankful to the 2014-2016 Bluecoats than any other corps in history, but BD and SCV are the leaders of the activity. SCV learned you had better figure out how to play BD's game if you want to win, and they not only figured it out, they might just be playing it better. We'll see in 2019.

No, Crowns percussion isn't their weakness anymore. Their design team is. One could say they knocked it out of the park 2006-2013 and 2015, but since then their shows have had massive design issues, none more so than their 2018 show. Crown was probably my favorite corps from 2006-2015. They reminded me so much of a modern Star, while having their own identity, and I've loved them for that. I have not liked any of their shows since, all based on design alone. They were a long long way from the top 3 last year from a design perspective, and a light year away from SCV from a design perspective. It's going to take a lot of work for them to knock BD or SCV out of the top 2.

BD and SCV and on another level because they each have not one single weakness. They each can win every single caption at finals. No other corps has the ability to win more than one or two captions, without having a major weakness elsewhere, IMO.

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42 minutes ago, queenanne_1536 said:

  A team that collaborates together on the highest level - and that takes years to build, not months, not a season, years. SCV has that team in place now. BD has had that team in place for years. Does anyone else? No. 

Depends what you consider highest level.  Top 2, 3, 4, 5?  But yes, the BD have the highest finishing position of any corps that has competed during the DCI era.  But, give Boston some time.  They're working on it.

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2 hours ago, Ghost said:

Depends what you consider highest level.  Top 2, 3, 4, 5?  But yes, the BD have the highest finishing position of any corps that has competed during the DCI era.  But, give Boston some time.  They're working on it.

I consider highest level the level it takes to beat BD, so not top 2 - top 1. I think 2018 SCV could have beaten any BD corps in the modern era, at finals, except for the 2014 corps (no one can beat them). The same could be said about 2013 Crown, but I can't say I can say the same about 2016 Bluecoats. 2013, however, is a long time ago when it comes to competitive DCI.

I agree with you on Boston. It is possible they could reach that level, but yes it will take time. After SCV, theirs was my favorite show last year from a design and execution standpoint. It will probably take years for them to get there, if they ever do, but it is possible. We may see them slip a place or two along the way (sometimes you have to take a step or two back to move 4 steps forward). It hope it works out for them - it'd be nice to see a new corps win again, and I've always liked them. I remember how wonderful it was in 2000 when they surged to 5th.

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5 minutes ago, queenanne_1536 said:

I consider highest level the level it takes to beat BD, so not top 2 - top 1. I think 2018 SCV could have beaten any BD corps in the modern era, at finals, except for the 2014 corps (no one can beat them). The same could be said about 2013 Crown, but I can't say I can say the same about 2016 Bluecoats. 2013, however, is a long time ago when it comes to competitive DCI.

I agree with you on Boston. It is possible they could reach that level, but yes it will take time. After SCV, theirs was my favorite show last year from a design and execution standpoint. It will probably take years and years for them to get there, but it is certainly possible. We may see them slip a place or two along the way (sometimes you have to take a step or two back to move 4 steps forward). It hope it works out for them - it'd be nice to see a new corps win again.

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Moving forward is very much about what others do or don't. How many corps improved over the years, sometimes a lot and still don't make finals. A shame sometimes but happens.

On the other hand , some slip , and there you are

Edited by GUARDLING
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6 minutes ago, GUARDLING said:

Moving forward is very much about what others do or don't. How many corps improved over the years, sometimes a lot and still don't make finals. A shame sometimes but happens.

Yeah, I know. I miss the old days when Regiment could place 10th at finals in '86 and 3rd in semis in '87. I miss the old days when '86 Star would beat Garfield early-mid season. It was a lot more fun then. You never know what was going to happen. I knew at Stanford in '18 that SCV and BD were going to be the top 2 corps. I knew at Stanford Mandarins were going to make finals. I knew at Stanford Academy was going to finish around 15th. I knew at Stanford Blue Knights were going to finish 8th or 9th. I knew the first time I saw a video of the Cadets they were going to finish 7th. I knew the first time I saw a video of Blue Stars they were going to make top 8. The only surprise for me was Cavies because I thought early season they'd have a stop at 12th. I guess another surprise was Mandarins beating Regiment. It's so predictable nowadays and very hard to gain ground. I think Blue Stars were the only corps that moved up several spots from the start of the '18 season to finals.

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6 minutes ago, queenanne_1536 said:

Yeah, I know. I miss the old days when Regiment could place 10th at finals in '86 and 3rd in semis in '87. I miss the old days when '86 Star would beat Garfield early-mid season. It was a lot more fun then. You never know what was going to happen. I knew at Stanford in '18 that SCV and BD were going to be the top 2 corps. I knew at Stanford Mandarins were going to make finals. I knew the first time I saw a video of Blue Stars they were going to make top 8. It's so predictable nowadays and very hard to gain ground. I think Blue Stars were the only corps that moved up several spots from the start of the '18 season to finals.

 

Well, I hear ya BUT back then also we had to deal with VERY inconsistent judging no accountability. It did make for excitement for the fans I suppose BUT one had to weed out judges who you might know wouldn't be there at the end and pretty much not listen to them.

Tic system era was as subjective as today, just with a lot less verbiage 

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10 minutes ago, GUARDLING said:

Well, I hear ya BUT back then also we had to deal with VERY inconsistent judging no accountability. It did make for excitement for the fans I suppose BUT one had to weed out judges who you might know wouldn't be there at the end and pretty much not listen to them.

I'm not so sure I agree with that. I think rather judges acted more independently back then than today. Scores should be inconsistent. People have different reads. Corps should be flip-flopping in placements. Today, it's like a herd judging mentality. We see that when we see things like SCV beating Crown by tenths every single night in 2017, yet Crown never once beat SCV. Or, BD beating SCV by tenths every night in 2017, yet SCV never once beating BD. While I think ultimately it's hard for me to argue the judges aren't getting the placements right on finals night, I'm hard pressed to believe that SCV wasn't better than BD at least one time they met in 2017, or that Crown wasn't better than SCV one time they met in 2017. Those are just two of the dozens of examples I can give. That's why when SCV beat Bloo at DCI MN in 2017, I was like, "Well, SCV doesn't have to worry about Bloo anymore." That's why when SCV beat BD at Stanford in 2018, I was like, "it's over." And it was over. That night. Sure BD beat SCV the next night, but that was the second of only two losses SCV sustained last year. But, at Stanford, it was plain as day SCV had the better show of the two and they already beat them. I knew SCV was going to win finals that night. And, yes, I 100% believe they deserved to win finals last year.

I think it's also spring training. When I marched in the late 80s/early 90s, you had Memorial Day weekend camp as your spring training before the season started, so corps like Garfield would come out and get beat by other corps who had less complex shows. I think I heard that Jim Mason was good friends with the Bluecoats director in 1990 and said to him, "If we are within 5 tenths of you at the first show, we will destroy you by finals." Whether that's true or not, that's what I heard. Well, Star of Indiana was exactly five tenths ahead of Bluecoats at their first meeting, and beat them by over 7 points at finals. Nowadays, when you have a month long spring training it's a huge benefit to corps with the more complex shows, because they not only have better talent, but they have the time to come out ahead of others.

It was more fun, competitively, those days.

 

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21 minutes ago, queenanne_1536 said:

I'm not so sure I agree with that. I think rather judges acted more independently back then than today. Scores should be inconsistent. People have different reads. Corps should be flip-flopping in placements. Today, it's like a herd judging mentality. We see that when we see things like SCV beating Crown by tenths every single night in 2017, yet Crown never once beat SCV. Or, BD beating SCV by tenths every night in 2017, yet SCV never once beating BD. While I think ultimately it's hard for me to argue the judges aren't getting the placements right on finals night, I'm hard pressed to believe that SCV wasn't better than BD at least one time they met in 2017, or that Crown wasn't better than SCV one time they met in 2017. Those are just two of the dozens of examples I can give. That's why when SCV beat Bloo at DCI MN in 2017, I was like, "Well, SCV doesn't have to worry about Bloo anymore." That's why when SCV beat BD at Stanford in 2018, I was like, "it's over." And it was over. That night. Sure BD beat SCV the next night, but that was the second of only two losses SCV sustained last year. But, at Stanford, it was plain as day SCV had the better show of the two and they already beat them. I knew SCV was going to win finals that night. And, yes, I 100% believe they deserved to win finals last year.

I think it's also spring training. When I marched in the late 80s/early 90s, you had Memorial Day weekend camp as your spring training before the season started, so corps like Garfield would come out and get beat by other corps who had less complex shows. I think I heard that Jim Mason was good friends with the Bluecoats director in 1990 and said to him, "If we are within 5 tenths of you at the first show, we will destroy you by finals." Whether that's true or not, that's what I heard. Well, Star of Indiana was exactly five tenths ahead of Bluecoats at their first meeting, and beat them by over 7 points at finals. Nowadays, when you have a month long spring training it's a huge benefit to corps with the more complex shows, because they not only have better talent, but they have the time to come out ahead of others.

It was more fun, competitively, those days.

 

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 The beginning of the season to finals is one thing BUT there were shows maybe before your time that a corps would go up or down many points depending on judging. That was just crazy and the only explanation you would get is " I called it as I saw it" Not good enough today. Todays top 5 or 6 maybe even 7 now are at very different levels even from 10 years ago. Can corps move? Yes, I think we have seen it. Several places? Maybe but would that even make sense with actual criteria and accountability as I said Maybe . Corps levels and talent are so close in those top 7 and knocking one off has more to do with a slip or a surge and timing One would have to be the only one either making improvements or making none at all to make huge jumps.

I totally agree with you about Spring Training and the benefits. Corps who do not take advantage have in the past suffered. There are a few now in the upper 1/2 of finals who learned it, the hard way.

Talent is so strong in those upper corps that it can be hard to move. If a corps does they had great timing and literally calculated each part of their season.

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