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2019 Predictions!


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5 minutes ago, mfrontz said:

Pretty sure they repeated in 74...

Thanks for catching that... 

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20 minutes ago, jjeffeory said:

I think it's funny that some here are summarily discounting the Cavaliers and pointing out how they perceive flaws in their show that will keep them out of the medals, while others are sorta doing the same with BAC.

Both corps are ranked third, in their current three-corps clusters. It’s not necessarily bias. The door is still wide open for that to change. I’m not a believer that design is some mysterious and unchangeable quality. 

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Just now, Ediker said:

Both corps are ranked third, in their current three-corps clusters. It’s not necessarily bias. The door is still wide open for that to change. I’m not a believer that design is some mysterious and unchangeable quality. 

Yea, good design is something that I know when I see. It's definitely fluid 

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2 minutes ago, Ediker said:

Both corps are ranked third, in their current three-corps clusters. It’s not necessarily bias. The door is still wide open for that to change. I’m not a believer that design is some mysterious and unchangeable quality. 

The bias that I see is when one corps is included, but not the other one.. 

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2 minutes ago, Ediker said:

Both corps are ranked third, in their current three-corps clusters. It’s not necessarily bias. The door is still wide open for that to change. I’m not a believer that design is some mysterious and unchangeable quality. 

Bad design can be difficult to overcome. Changes to the original create transition issues which then feed construction comments. It is a never ending circle of pain. Not all has to be ready for the first week of the year, but big problems WILL lead to huge disappointment down the road.

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On 6/26/2019 at 6:07 AM, ThePlanets said:

A BD show is a BD show. I don't think anyone is saying that BD isn't THAT good this year. They are the measuring stick.

I think the point is that at this point in the season there are at least 3 shows good enough and special enough that they COULD beat BD. If all 3 DO beat BD it will land them out of a medal.  The last year in recent memory that this was possible was 2015 and BD still took it all but any of the top 4 we're good enough shows to win.

I'm a cynic so I still have BD bringing home gold...but their floor (like  <.05% chance) is 5th place. I think they have a 30-40% chance of gold and roughly a 75% chance of getting 2nd place or higher and probably a 90-95% chance of medaling. But this season is exciting and you don't find that even sliver of a chance that BD doesn't medal often.

BDs reign has been solid since 1976 and that isn't going to change. They have only missed medals 7 times since then and 6 of those times it was 4th place. Their only "down" years (by BD standards) were 89-93...which were 5 of the 7 years they didn't medal AND 1987 makes 6. So the only outlier really is 2005.

Now I don't think it's ludicrous to think they might have a year here and there where they don't medal...or get 3rd place. It won't end their dominance. 

I do think that the winning 60% of the time and their crazy dominance since 2007 will wind down though eventually.

Since when does predicting BD to take gold make one a cynic? :innocent:

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6 hours ago, George Dixon said:

not a popular opinion but I felt Crown was so overrated in 2015 - the drill could have fit on a basketball court and other than the guard I personally thought visually it was a snooze fest

however - I know most others felt differently and they were very popular in the stands - I just hated the reliance on the banners etc for cheap GE

I agree. It was a very visually bland show. The only things I remember from that show from a visual standpoint were the banners in the opener/closer and then the red sheer cloth in the ballad. 

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