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2019 Predictions!


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On 1/28/2019 at 3:29 PM, PopcornEater1963 said:

I'm a Cavaliers parent, and I'd sign up for this right now. Well...maybe I'd like to see them in 4th over Boston. But the main reason I'd sign up for this is I'm rooting HARD for Spirit of Atlanta to get back in the mix. There's simply no reason with the talent that's all over metro Atlanta and neighboring states that Spirit shouldn't be in the thick of things. Hope that they've started their journey back! 

Spirit set their hornline at the January camp a couple of weeks ago. 2019 hornline has 49 returning veterans, nine of which are marching their fourth year with the corps. The staff auditioned 248 for the hornline. Not sure about the drums and guard, but I have heard that most of last year's drumline is returning.

Edited by oldsoprano
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I believe Cavaliers brassline is going to be in the top 3 this coming season.  

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5 hours ago, cavies79 said:

I believe Cavaliers brassline is going to be in the top 3 this coming season.  

I would be shocked 

so they will beat two of these four:

SCV

Crown

BD

Coats

Which two???

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1 hour ago, George Dixon said:

I would be shocked 

so they will beat two of these four:

SCV

Crown

BD

Coats

Which two???

I hear ya... that's a pretty exclusive club right there.

Reminds me of the old Speakeasy days... when you needed to know the password before "Knuckles" the doorman would let you in.  :laughing:

 

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1 hour ago, George Dixon said:

I would be shocked 

so they will beat two of these four:

SCV

Crown

BD

Coats

Which two???

 Anything's possible. And big jumps in section placement improvements in one season do occur. Cavs finished 7th in Brass last season.  So they would need to improve in Brass over Cadets ( 6th in brass )... Boston ( 5th in Brass ).. and Bluecoats ( 4th in Brass )... then top  1 more of either BD/ SCV/ Crown to attain such a prediction. Its a real, long shot challenge, but by no means totally out of the question, imo. Now... had he said he thought that last season's 7th place Cavaliers Brass line.. in one season.. would finish 1st and win the Ott Award this season, I'd probably request urine sample results to determine how free of banned substances was he when he made THAT prediction:rolleyes:

Edited by BRASSO
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20 minutes ago, BRASSO said:

 Anything's possible. And big jumps in section placement improvements in one season do occur. Cavs finished 7th in Brass last season.  So they would need to improve in Brass over Cadets ( 6th in brass )... Boston ( 5th in Brass ).. and Bluecoats ( 4th in Brass )... then top  1 more of either BD/ SCV/ Crown to attain such a prediction. Its a real, long shot challenge, but by no means totally out of the question, imo. Now... had he said he thought that last season's 7th place Cavaliers Brass line.. in one season.. would finish 1st and win the Ott Award this season, I'd probably request urine sample results to determine how free of banned substances was he when he made THAT prediction:rolleyes:

agreed anything is possible - but I personally feel Boston's line will be much much improved, Cadets line is expected to be much improved and Coats are supposedly having a stellar winter so I just don't think it's "likely" to be kind - not with Crown so consistent (though reportedly a tad younger) and BD always top 3 and SCV just loaded beyond belief... 

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I won't even consider listing placements but some thoughts....
 

  • Don't think that Vanguard can't repeat.
  • With regards to Vanguard repeating... don't think Blue Devils are just gonna step aside without a fight. 
  • Boston... Hi. We're here and came to medal.. Just sayin!
  • I see Crown, Cavies and Cadets in a big scrap and I somehow see Bluecoats falling into this pack... but I see the top 7 not having much spread... No more than 4 points between 1st and 7th...
  • Next pack... Blue Knights, Mandarins, Blue Stars and Spirit of Atlanta...
  • and the battle for 12th... Phantom, Crossmen, Colts... I see Phantom winning this group, but only just
  • I don't think Madison has a hope in you know where to get back to finals this year
  • I see a big jump for Seattle

 

Flame away....

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On 1/21/2019 at 4:53 PM, karuna said:

Well sure it was where they should be visually but when you need a mic to hear them,  is that good staging?  Because you're really ignoring where they should be staged.  It's a case of visual design just eliminating musical considerations.

The point I'm making is that if you need  mics on brass instruments because otherwise they can't be heard,  is that really good staging?  They mic'd their tubas for god sakes.  Good staging acoustically meant putting the right instruments in the right place at the right time to make sure they were heard.  Now you can completely ignore that -- just give the brass players mics and IEMs and they can be "anywhere".  Not sure that's really step forward.  But I'm going way off topic.  

Haha. So you do realize they mic'd them so they COULD put them where they wanted and could be heard? Perhaps they wanted the audience to hear multiple lines versus one that's important and the rest are secondary. Mic'ing is not always done to make it easier, but sometimes to ACTUALLY make it more sophisticated. Assuming its always done to make it easier means you definitely haven't listened closely to either of the past two years versions of the SCV music book.

 

The mic'd tuba parts in 2018 are as intricate as anything else the hornline proper is playing at the end of the show. Unless you stage them on the front sideline (which would make no sense) then mic'ing them was a brilliant way to blend the sound/texture and NOT have to overblow the whole ensemble to do it (like many other groups do). Not every designer in the activity is looking for the easy way to get points, sometimes its about being creative and just a little outside of the box. There is no need to to try and fool the fans and judges  when you clearly have the performers, teachers and design to pull it off. It's a design choice, and its not going away anytime soon. 

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Speaking of predictions, another way of looking at the corps is their year-over-year volatility in placements (past 15 years).  More volatility is not necessarily bad. Cadets may be one of the more volatile, but they also have the second highest average placement thanks to some big jumps from 4th/5th to 1st/2nd.  

Corps ranked by average (15 year) change in final placement:

  1) Blue Devils  (+/- 1.0)
 2) Blue Knights (+/- 1.214) 
 3) Crown        (+/- 1.5)
 4) SCV          (+/- 1.6)
 5) Boston       (+/- 1.667)
 6) Cavies       (+/- 1.733)
 7) Crossmen     (+/- 1.8)
 8) Bluecoats    (+/- 1.929)
 9) Cadets       (+/- 2.071)
10) Phantom      (+/- 2.143)
11) Mandarins    (+/- 2.429)
12) Blue Stars   (+/- 2.769)
13) Madison      (+/- 2.786)

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2 minutes ago, Ediker said:

Speaking of predictions, another way of looking at the corps is their year-over-year volatility in placements (past 15 years).  More volatility is not necessarily bad. Cadets may be one of the more volatile, but they also have the second highest average placement thanks to some big jumps from 4th/5th to 1st/2nd.  

Corps ranked by average (15 year) change in final placement:

  1) Blue Devils  (+/- 1.0)
 2) Blue Knights (+/- 1.214) 
 3) Crown        (+/- 1.5)
 4) SCV          (+/- 1.6)
 5) Boston       (+/- 1.667)
 6) Cavies       (+/- 1.733)
 7) Crossmen     (+/- 1.8)
 8) Bluecoats    (+/- 1.929)
 9) Cadets       (+/- 2.071)
10) Phantom      (+/- 2.143)
11) Mandarins    (+/- 2.429)
12) Blue Stars   (+/- 2.769)
13) Madison      (+/- 2.786)

This is very cool! Thanks for posting. I wonder if Cavies "swing" would have drawn tighter if it was a 20-year analysis with their run between 2000-2004. :-) 

Leave it to a biased parent to want to "recut" the data. :-) 

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