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2019 Predictions!


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4 hours ago, craiga said:

With Boston's design team now in their 3rd year of a five year contract and the organization's fundraising acumen continuing to enhance the corps' financial strength every year, there is no reason to think the upward trajectory won't continue as well.  As for when and if they might win, I'm not sure past history of other corps necessarily is indicative of their potential.  Indeed, while the Star of Indiana experience is an interesting comparison,  the high command in Hyde Park (BOD) has more than 500 years of combined drum corps experience.  They are absolutely in this for the long haul.  I am convinced that a World Championship is only a matter of time.

The Star of Indiana experience though was almost 30 years ago. It doesn't work that way in today's DCI. SCV started their resurgence in 2012 and it took them 6 seasons to crack the top 2 and 7 to win. I think it is a million times hard to move up the ladder today than it was 30 years ago, 20 years ago, and even 10 years ago. You have to fire on all cylinders to win today. Bluecoats winning only one caption in 2016 and winning it all is rarity. It may take years for Boston to crack the top 3 or win. I'm not worried. They are have seemingly put the right pieces together, but I would expect them to win in the near future or possibly ever. We just don't know. 

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2 hours ago, queenanne_1536 said:

The Star of Indiana experience though was almost 30 years ago. It doesn't work that way in today's DCI. SCV started their resurgence in 2012 and it took them 6 seasons to crack the top 2 and 7 to win. I think it is a million times hard to move up the ladder today than it was 30 years ago, 20 years ago, and even 10 years ago. You have to fire on all cylinders to win today. Bluecoats winning only one caption in 2016 and winning it all is rarity. It may take years for Boston to crack the top 3 or win. I'm not worried. They are have seemingly put the right pieces together, but I would expect them to win in the near future or possibly ever. We just don't know. 

well it certainly doesn't work like it did 30 years ago - by 93 is an important example of a trend that mattered then, and matters even more today

GUARD

Boston has the guard caption locked down - in 93 Cadets guard powered them (IMO) to their narrow victory over Star

Today guard matters more than brass & more than drums - it creeps into GE big time

With Boston's guard they could easily move into the medals (or win) IMO

I personally don't think it will happen in 2019 - but that's just a hunch. There's still a good bit of gap there between Boston and BD/SCV and even Coats - as you allude to earlier in the thread

But in 2019 - the guard strength makes all things possible with further improvement in the other performance captions

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38 minutes ago, George Dixon said:

well it certainly doesn't work like it did 30 years ago - by 93 is an important example of a trend that mattered then, and matters even more today

GUARD  Boston has the guard caption locked down - in 93 Cadets guard powered them (IMO) to their narrow victory over Star  Today guard matters more than brass & more than drums - it creeps into GE big time  With Boston's guard they could easily move into the medals (or win) IMO  I personally don't think it will happen in 2019 - but that's just a hunch.  the guard strength makes all things possible with further improvement in the other performance captions

I see you've been reading BRASSO's playbook.

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31 minutes ago, Ghost said:

I see you've been reading BRASSO's playbook.

 No. I believe George Dixon is an independent thinking person, and is seeing what others are seeing as well re. the emergence of Guard/ Visual a bit more on the judging sheets of late, thats all Ghost.  One superior performance caption excellence alone won't get it done either however, as the Zingali, Ott, Sanford Award winners the last 6-7 years seem to indicate, imo.

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1 hour ago, George Dixon said:

well it certainly doesn't work like it did 30 years ago - by 93 is an important example of a trend that mattered then, and matters even more today

GUARD

Boston has the guard caption locked down - in 93 Cadets guard powered them (IMO) to their narrow victory over Star

Today guard matters more than brass & more than drums - it creeps into GE big time

With Boston's guard they could easily move into the medals (or win) IMO

I personally don't think it will happen in 2019 - but that's just a hunch. There's still a good bit of gap there between Boston and BD/SCV and even Coats - as you allude to earlier in the thread

But in 2019 - the guard strength makes all things possible with further improvement in the other performance captions

visual matters more period. on music tapes, if you don't credit physical and listening responsibilities as a judge you get crucified. However if you do actually credit those on a visual tape, you get crucified.

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1 hour ago, Jeff Ream said:

visual matters more period. 

 Yup... and the irony of this ( imo ) is that there are no ( or few ) College Degrees in" Guard", nor" Visual".... as there is in Music Theory, Percussion, or Music Ed,  Trumpet, or 50 other College Degrees that deal with Music, Brass and/ or Percussion. While many of the Brass players in the top Corps tend to be pursuing degrees in the Music and/ or Music Ed Field,, one does not have to go to College for " Guard", nor even show the ability to read a note of music,... nor go to College at all.. Many in Guard do, of course, and good for them.. Don't get me wrong, what the modern Guards do today is quite extraordinary and simply amazing in their abilities on Flag, Rifle, Sabre.  But the ability to help a Corps score well in DCI is not predicated at all in their ability to perform well on any musical instrument as a matter of fact. The fact that " visual matters more period " on today's modern judging sheets is simply something the Corps have agreed upon,.once proposed.  So thats how we have arrived where we're at now in DCI, where as many have assessed " visual matters more, period. ", now.

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4 hours ago, Jeff Ream said:

visual matters more period. on music tapes, if you don't credit physical and listening responsibilities as a judge you get crucified. However if you do actually credit those on a visual tape, you get crucified.

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Funny thing is there are many who believe this is something new. No matter how numbers have been rearranged different ways over the years the visual program and guard have played a big part in the scoring  or have been a part of many aspects and not just the obvious.

I remember having this conversation with George Z way back when....very way back, and kind of chuckling over the whole thing. LOL. Actually, for me, it's why at a certain point  I switched from the horn line to the guard, especially because I never had any intentions on any music career.

Probably all this and a dozen other reasons it's more obvious over the past several years.

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1 hour ago, GUARDLING said:

Funny thing is there are many who believe this is something new. No matter how numbers have been rearranged different ways over the years the visual program has played a big part in the scoring.

I remember having this conversation with George Z way back when....very way back, and kind of chuckling over the whole thing.

 Yes, it is kind of funny, as " many " ( if they indeed do think this is " new " ) were not even around attending shows both now and back in the 60's/ 70's.

 But yes, it is true that Marching and Maneuvering / Guard seemingly was rewarded a bit more on the judging sheets than Brass and/ or Percussion was.. even in the 70's.

 For example, the Oakland Crusaders ( Canada ) WON Percussion in the DCI  Prelims in 1977 (  with both Percussion judges, incidentally ), but failed to make Finals. They finished 15th in the Prelims. Even the best on the field Percussion playing in the DCI Prelims could not bring them decent Music Analysis scores ( finished 22nd), nor overall GE ( finished 14th in GE ) either.

 What are the chances that if that Corps finished 1st in Marching & Maneuvering in the Prelims ( instead of Percussion ), their GE scores would not be in the Top 12 ? I know, that IS a funny question, as it would be just unthinkable that a Corps that won the Visual side in the Prelims would fail to make Finals altogether. Heck fast forward to today, and a Corps can finish 6th in Percussion at Finals and still win a DCI Title, if their Visual and Guard are 1/2. ( Crown, to their credit, did this in 2013 ). Could a Corps win a DCI Title if the Guard finishes 6th, instead of their Percussion finishing 6th ? No., not a chance, imo. if a Corps Guard (or Visual Analysis ) is 6th, it will bury them on the GE sheets, something that clearly does not occur if the Corps Percussion is not in the top tier in DCI.  

Finally, the Mandarins made Finals easily last season. ( 10th ). Neither their Brass line, nor their Percussion line finished in the Top 12 in the Semi's. But their Brass Section, nor their Percussion Section, kept them out. They excelled in what counts most on the sheets. And thats why they comfortably made Finals, as they smartly and correctly figured out what it takes to generate the most build up points on the judging sheets. Good for them.

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1 hour ago, BRASSO said:

 Yes, it is kind of funny, as " many " ( if they indeed do think this is " new " ) were not even around attending shows both now and back in the 60's/ 70's.

 But yes, it is true that Marching and Maneuvering / Guard seemingly was rewarded a bit more on the judging sheets than Brass and/ or Percussion was.. even in the 70's.

 For example, the Oakland Crusaders ( Canada ) WON Percussion in the DCI  Prelims in 1977 (  with both Percussion judges, incidentally ), but failed to make Finals. They finished 15th in the Prelims. Even the best on the field Percussion playing in the DCI Prelims could not bring them decent Music Analysis scores ( finished 22nd), nor overall GE ( finished 14th in GE ) either.

 What are the chances that if that Corps finished 1st in Marching & Maneuvering in the Prelims ( instead of Percussion ), their GE scores would not be in the Top 12 ? I know, that IS a funny question, as it would be just unthinkable that a Corps that won the Visual side in the Prelims would fail to make Finals altogether. Heck fast forward to today, and a Corps can finish 6th in Percussion at Finals and still win a DCI Title, if their Visual and Guard are 1/2. ( Crown, to their credit, did this in 2013 ). Could a Corps win a DCI Title if their Guard finished 6th, instead of their Percussion finishing 6th ? No., not a chance, imo. if a Corps Guard (or Visual Analysis ) is 6th, it will bury them on the GE sheets, something that clearly does not occur if the Corps Percussion is not in the top tier in DCI.

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Well, I wasn't going prehistoric or over analyzing jeff's statement..... but ok and true as you say even going back to the 70s...🙂

There are still many around watching, teaching judging, admin, advisors at a very high and I might say successful levels. from decades past, although it wasn't part of what Jeff was saying..I think...lol. I guess I was the one bringing what he said into the past, and then too now for comparison ..lol

Anyway, back to predictions

apologies🙂 

 

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1 hour ago, GUARDLING said:

Funny thing is there are many who believe this is something new. No matter how numbers have been rearranged different ways over the years the visual program and guard have played a big part in the scoring  or have been a part of many aspects and not just the obvious.

I remember having this conversation with George Z way back when....very way back, and kind of chuckling over the whole thing. LOL. Actually, for me, it's why at a certain point  I switched from the horn line to the guard, especially because I never had any intentions on any music career.

Probably all this and a dozen other reasons it's more obvious over the past several years.

new? no. Taken on more and more prominence in the last 10-15 years? yes, I'd say more than ever since about 2010. 

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