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2019 Predictions!


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8 minutes ago, EDAVE said:

It is as simple as this.  BD consistency is due to their ability to replace exiting talent with equal incoming talent.  These corps that dropped to 4th/5th the year after winning did not.

The part about BD is true... the part about the rest just isn't.  Sometimes, the other guys just get better.

Often times, 5th place shows one year are 1st place caliber another.  Happens all the time.

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Just now, OhioBoy_99 said:

This always me worry going into a season with Bloo. I know they are a GE juggernaut as they have proven time and time again but never know how they will fair in other captions.  But at the same time, Bloo "needing to be competitive" in other captions has never been a problem. Have they ever won a caption on finals night? No. But do they win captions over the course of the season and consistently place top 3 in captions on finals night? Yes. Bloo holds their weight in captions and is a reason they have won the night of premiere the last two (three?) years and medaled the last 4 out of 5 years. But I do agree that this year seems to be more tight than ever. It'll be a dog fight! I can't wait! 

Don't misunderstand me.  In fact, I pointed to the truth (that we have been close to, but have not yet seen) that a corps could be consistent in all captions without winning any and still win.  Bluecoats are relatively consistent.  They are good at everything, every year.  But being consistently good is not a reliable method of winning.  The reliable approach is found in what we saw from SCV last year and have seen from many champs in the past... domination of multiple captions.

The consistently good corps CAN win.  The multi-caption winning corps WILL win.

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My caption predictions for the season since I've already done placements:

Brass: Crown

Percussion: SCV

Guard: BD

Visual: BD

GE: BD

 

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On 6/18/2019 at 11:44 AM, George Dixon said:

His election was obvious to anyone paying attention and so is this. 

"wake up sheeple"

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22 hours ago, queenanne_1536 said:

George, at this time during the 2016 season (see the Cadets 2016 thread) people were saying Cadets had serious design issues and were in trouble. You argued otherwise. The Cadets finished 6th. A week or so into the season in 2017 (see the Cadets 2017 thread) you argued the Cadets could medal. Others disagreed. The Cadets finished 7th. As I said, everyone has biases, including me. But, we have to recognize those biases for what they are. Saying "It's highly unlikely" just doesn't fly. If the Blue Stars can improve and grow on last season, it's entirely likely. I predicted the Cadets 7th and Blue Stars 8th, but I may be wrong. If you told me before I saw anyone in 2016 that the Cavaliers were going to beat the Cadets, I would have said "unlikely." It happened. In fact, as soon as I saw both their shows, I was pretty sure it was going to happen.

Getting rid of almost all my biases has made DCI so much more enjoyable. My anger and disagreement at BD winning so much is gone (not saying at all you're angry, I am just saying I was). I love them now. My anger at Madison being "screwed" is gone. They are gone and neither was true. Both Madison and BD have always gotten what they deserve, for better or for worse. I could site several more examples, but it has been so freeing and enlightening to see things for what they are, not through a biased lens. You have an overwhelmingly strong pro-Cadet bias. In my opinion, that has clouded your judgement of where they are in the past, just like my pro-Regiment, pro-Scouts, pro-Crown, anti-Bloo pro-Cadets, and anti-BD, anti-Cavies, and anti-BK biases (Good God, I used to be such a hater) have clouded my judgement in the past, for years and years and years.

I want the Cadets to get back to the top as much as anyone, but it's not going to happen over night. and it's just as likely the Cadets could drop to 8th or 9th as it is they could rise to 5th. 

 

Thank you.

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12 minutes ago, cfirwin3 said:

This kind of relates to some of the assertions that people were making about significant staff members.  There was a comment made a while back about Gaines being the one that wins it for SCV (as if he set everything right single-handedly).  I'm sure Gaines would disagree with that suggestion.  The truth is that he was merely a linchpin figure that rounded out the field of great staffing and approach.  To say that SCV couldn't win without Gaines is no more true than saying that they couldn't win without Shaw, Rennick(s), Woodley, etc.

For the Bluecoats... Jim Moore was perhaps the linchpin... but this could only be true because of Thrower, Rarick, etc.  Without the "long haul", tested and proven stuff (and PEOPLE)... no single person does the job.  Not by a long shot.

Agree on all points. With Bluecoats many have also pointed to Jonathan Vanderkoff and others. But you're right, the journey for Bluecoats began when people like Doug, Dave, Tom and others kept working with the corps when it had very little money. I believe there was a year where Doug and Dave took no money. Maybe early to mid 90s. I'd argue that without Dave Glasgow and his wife you would not have the Bluecoats you see today. Dave had a vision for how to fund the corps and staff the corps. He was eager to pioneer in area like electronics and props, uniform design, etc. when many simply wanted to "wing" it (like GH) and think it would sell. 

As for SCV, the greatness of Michael Gaines does no good if the staff and management are not in place. Nobody wins in DCI working solo (on or off the field). Major props should go to Jeff Fiedler who began a transition for SCV, and major props should go to their current admin team, including Scott Koter who has once again assembled and coordinated a killer staff and production team. 

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28 minutes ago, cfirwin3 said:

Often times, 5th place shows one year are 1st place caliber another.  Happens all the time.

Yes, it happened in 1990, 2015 and 2018. For sure. There may have been more, but two big ones recently. I loved Bluecoats show last year. I've loved all their shows since 2014. I am not worried about them dropping in the least. They are a championship caliber corps and have been so since 2014. Yes, I do think they were in 2017. There were issues with that show, but they still had championship caliber membership in their ranks, and I quite liked that show.

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