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2019 Daily Run Down


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4 minutes ago, pistolpete said:

I look forward to your post every day. Keep up the great work!

Thanks for the support!

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2 hours ago, DrumCorpsRadio said:

July 2 Run-Down

Jersey Surf made one of the most significant debuts of the season with its highest opening score since 2009 and an initial placement of #19. For reference, 2009 (along with 2012) marks the highest placement for Jersey Surf in the Lucas Oil Stadium era (#20). There are several corps yet to perform that placed higher than Jersey Surf last year however. There is just one World Class corps left to debut - Seattle Cascades - and we will see where they fit into the puzzle on July 5.

River City Rhythm also made its 2019 debut at #28. 

After several days apart, Bluecoats and Boston Crusaders were head-to-head again and Bluecoats extended its undefeated streak and saw its lead over Boston improve by a few tenths. The Cadets gained on Boston as well. All that said, in raw score, Boston Crusaders are ranked #2 while several other top corps rehearse.

Raiders saw a large score decrease of -1.100 which is a little more surprising given the fact the corps had not competed since June 28. The corps' new in-state competitor, Encorps, gained some ground.

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Still reading this in radio voice and enjoying every word.  Thank you so very much for doing this.  Your reports tend to me more objective than others and I appreciate that more than you will ever know.

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July 3 Run-Down

There were several notable score increases in the Wisconsin show. After not competing since June 30, Phantom Regiment increased 3.750 points. Especially notable is that back on June 30, Phantom Regiment also posted a large score increase of 2.100 night over night. In just two shows, the corps has now increased by nearly 6 points. That June 30 show was also head-to-head with Crossmen and Colts, the nearest corps above and below in the same show. On June 30 the spread was: Crossmen, Phantom Regiment (-2.050 from Crossmen), Colts (-2.550 from Phantom Regiment). On July 3 the spread was: Crossmen, Phantom Regiment (-0.850 from Crossmen), Colts (-3.600 from Phantom Regiment). 

In Open Class, River City Rhythm put up a large 5.550 score increase in its second performance.

None of this changed any head-to-head rankings, but with the narrow gap between Crossmen and Phantom Regiment, this certainly brings some hope to what was looking like a worrisome summer in Rockford. 

July 5 is a really important day in this young season so let's take a look ahead.

  • 20 of 22 World Class corps are in competition. Crossmen and Madison Scouts are the off corps. Seattle Cascades debut.
  • Three Open Class corps also debut: Columbians, The Battalion, & Legends.

Camas, WA - Drums of Fire

  • First three corps of the night are in their season opening shows. 
  • There is no real head-to-head mystery here except perhaps where Seattle Cascades debut relative to Genesis.

Lexington, SC - CrownBEAT

  • Jersey Surf will be looking to improve on its best season-opening score in a decade and narrow the gap with Music City.
  • Phantom Regiment has been rapidly improving in score. Let us see if the corps is now ahead of Spirit of Atlanta as this is a match-up with significant finalist implications. Spirit has won all four head-to-head meetings to this point by margins of 1.050, 1.450, 0.950, and 0.250. 
  • The competition of the night has to be Carolina Crown and Boston Crusaders. They have met only twice so far with the last time coming back on June 24, an eternity in a drum corps season. Carolina Crown won both by 0.850 and 1.150. The last time both corps competed on the same night - in separate shows - was June 29 and they were essentially even at 78.350 for Boston and 78.300 for Crown.

Sacramento, CA - DCI Capital Classic Corps Show

  • There isn't a lot to see here from a competitive standpoint except whether Vanguard Cadets can narrow the gap with Blue Devils B. Without having championship implications, this is more for local bragging rights than anything else though.

Lisle, IL - Cavalcade of Brass

  • This has to be the show of the night as East meets West giving us not only a chance to do some new head-to-head comparisons but to use those comparisons to make some inferences about where other corps fit in. This is like a dream come true scenario for people who overanalyze the numbers like me!
  • The Academy vs. Colts is an important indicator of how deep the hunt for finals is going to go. And even if these two corps wind up not fighting for the finals, they will certainly be fighting for the theater broadcast with Madison Scouts in the mix there. 
  • Blue Stars and The Cadets have not been head-to-head since June 23 when The Cadets had a 1.150 point lead. In non-head-to-head competition, Blue Stars have narrowed that gap considerably. We will find out if that is a paper change or if it is real. If it is real, The Cadets may be in line for an even lower finish than 2018 while Blue Stars would enter the conversation for the corps highest finish in Lucas Oil Stadium history.
  • The Cavaliers will get their own line in this little analysis because this competition will help us see whether they are in a grouping with the Bluecoats/Santa Clara Vanguard world or the Blue Stars/The Cadets world or stuck on an island between the two. Based on the wide margins of victory of Santa Clara over Cavaliers in multiple meetings on the West Coast, it seems unlikely that the Cavaliers are up there, but it is hard to say what happens when you add Bluecoats to the mix.
  • Certainly the prize fight of the entire day is Bluecoats - Santa Clara Vanguard. Bluecoats enter the night as the only undefeated corps in the land. Santa Clara came out stronger from a score standpoint but have not kept pace with Bluecoats since June 25. It is just one show, but this is an important one for the Gold medal conversation. If Bluecoats win by a margin, they have to be the strong favorite based on the tight race we've seen between Blue Devils and Santa Clara Vanguard. If it is tight or Santa Clara Vanguard wins, we have a battle for all three spots at a minimum and possibly the entire top five with Carolina Crown and Boston Crusaders in the mix.

The best part about all of this is that on July 6, nearly all of these match ups occur again with Crossmen and Madison Scouts jumping into the fray so by the end of the weekend, we'll have a really good sense of where things stand, probably the best analysis opportunity until San Antonio on July 20.

 

BMPJ2cy.png

 

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Phantom’s 5.85 point increase over 2 shows is the most amazing early season stat so far. The kids in the corps and the staff are to be commended for bouncing back after a slow start.

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4 hours ago, DrumCorpsRadio said:

July 3 Run-Down

There were several notable score increases in the Wisconsin show. After not competing since June 30, Phantom Regiment increased 3.750 points. Especially notable is that back on June 30, Phantom Regiment also posted a large score increase of 2.100 night over night. In just two shows, the corps has now increased by nearly 6 points. That June 30 show was also head-to-head with Crossmen and Colts, the nearest corps above and below in the same show. On June 30 the spread was: Crossmen, Phantom Regiment (-2.050 from Crossmen), Colts (-2.550 from Phantom Regiment). On July 3 the spread was: Crossmen, Phantom Regiment (-0.850 from Crossmen), Colts (-3.600 from Phantom Regiment). 

In Open Class, River City Rhythm put up a large 5.550 score increase in its second performance.

None of this changed any head-to-head rankings, but with the narrow gap between Crossmen and Phantom Regiment, this certainly brings some hope to what was looking like a worrisome summer in Rockford. 

July 5 is a really important day in this young season so let's take a look ahead.

  • 20 of 22 World Class corps are in competition. Crossmen and Madison Scouts are the off corps. Seattle Cascades debut.
  • Three Open Class corps also debut: Columbians, The Battalion, & Legends.

Camas, WA - Drums of Fire

  • First three corps of the night are in their season opening shows. 
  • There is no real head-to-head mystery here except perhaps where Seattle Cascades debut relative to Genesis.

Lexington, SC - CrownBEAT

  • Jersey Surf will be looking to improve on its best season-opening score in a decade and narrow the gap with Music City.
  • Phantom Regiment has been rapidly improving in score. Let us see if the corps is now ahead of Spirit of Atlanta as this is a match-up with significant finalist implications. Spirit has won all four head-to-head meetings to this point by margins of 1.050, 1.450, 0.950, and 0.250. 
  • The competition of the night has to be Carolina Crown and Boston Crusaders. They have met only twice so far with the last time coming back on June 24, an eternity in a drum corps season. Carolina Crown won both by 0.850 and 1.150. The last time both corps competed on the same night - in separate shows - was June 29 and they were essentially even at 78.350 for Boston and 78.300 for Crown.

Sacramento, CA - DCI Capital Classic Corps Show

  • There isn't a lot to see here from a competitive standpoint except whether Vanguard Cadets can narrow the gap with Blue Devils B. Without having championship implications, this is more for local bragging rights than anything else though.

Lisle, IL - Cavalcade of Brass

  • This has to be the show of the night as East meets West giving us not only a chance to do some new head-to-head comparisons but to use those comparisons to make some inferences about where other corps fit in. This is like a dream come true scenario for people who overanalyze the numbers like me!
  • The Academy vs. Colts is an important indicator of how deep the hunt for finals is going to go. And even if these two corps wind up not fighting for the finals, they will certainly be fighting for the theater broadcast with Madison Scouts in the mix there. 
  • Blue Stars and The Cadets have not been head-to-head since June 23 when The Cadets had a 1.150 point lead. In non-head-to-head competition, Blue Stars have narrowed that gap considerably. We will find out if that is a paper change or if it is real. If it is real, The Cadets may be in line for an even lower finish than 2018 while Blue Stars would enter the conversation for the corps highest finish in Lucas Oil Stadium history.
  • The Cavaliers will get their own line in this little analysis because this competition will help us see whether they are in a grouping with the Bluecoats/Santa Clara Vanguard world or the Blue Stars/The Cadets world or stuck on an island between the two. Based on the wide margins of victory of Santa Clara over Cavaliers in multiple meetings on the West Coast, it seems unlikely that the Cavaliers are up there, but it is hard to say what happens when you add Bluecoats to the mix.
  • Certainly the prize fight of the entire day is Bluecoats - Santa Clara Vanguard. Bluecoats enter the night as the only undefeated corps in the land. Santa Clara came out stronger from a score standpoint but have not kept pace with Bluecoats since June 25. It is just one show, but this is an important one for the Gold medal conversation. If Bluecoats win by a margin, they have to be the strong favorite based on the tight race we've seen between Blue Devils and Santa Clara Vanguard. If it is tight or Santa Clara Vanguard wins, we have a battle for all three spots at a minimum and possibly the entire top five with Carolina Crown and Boston Crusaders in the mix.

The best part about all of this is that on July 6, nearly all of these match ups occur again with Crossmen and Madison Scouts jumping into the fray so by the end of the weekend, we'll have a really good sense of where things stand, probably the best analysis opportunity until San Antonio on July 20.

 

BMPJ2cy.png

 

Wish I could "love" but not an option.

Not to mention if Bluecoats come away with a healthy lead over Santa Clara we have a 4 way flip coin battle for 2-5 depending on how close Crown and Boston are. I think that would be the most interesting scenario.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, pistolpete said:

Phantom’s 5.85 point increase over 2 shows is the most amazing early season stat so far. The kids in the corps and the staff are to be commended for bouncing back after a slow start.

So happy for them! Loved the show when I saw it in Muncie. Can't wait to finally get a second viewing on Flo this weekend - there isn't really a great recording on the web right now!

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Friday the 5th is going to be a showdown as noted. 

Bluecoats and Santa Clara will tell us where things lie, at least according to the panel of the evening. And let's not forget the Cavaliers. For the life of me, as I watch the videos, I do not see them out of the mix. I may not think they will be 1-2, but they could be 3-4 , perhaps?

The Blue Stars are going to be pushing the Cadets and if not on the 5th, then the 6th of the 7th, the Blue Stars have a good chance of passing the Cadets.

Phantom, the Blue Knights, the Mandarins all have the chance to make some big statements. For Phantom, I see them passing Spirit with some ease. And as for the others, the show locations are different but there will be a chance here to see where we are. 

It will be an interesting night ! 

 

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July 5 Run-Down

Lots of fun head-to-head comparison information below. Here, though, let's talk about the bigger picture. With nearly all World Class corps in competition on the same night, we have Bluecoats, Santa Clara Vanguard, and Blue Devils in the top 3 spots followed closely by Boston Crusaders and Carolina Crown. That all seems plausible based on where Boston & Crown ranked compared to Bluecoats when in head-to-head competition. Further down, Phantom Regiment regained a finalist spot and is now closer to #11 than #13. There's a pretty wide gap between #14 (Colts) and #15 (The Academy). Legends debuted in the #2 spot of Open Class corps going to Indianapolis. Score changes were not equally distributed. The Sacramento corps had the greatest increases (average 3.620) compared to Camas (1.588), Lisle (1.021), and Lexington (0.958). We won't see any crossover of corps from different tours again until July 12 so it may take some time to find out how accurately we can compare from show to show. It may be explainable, though, since most of the Sacramento corps had been out of competition for awhile.

Camas, WA - Drums of Fire

  • First three corps of the night are in their season opening shows.   
  • There is no real head-to-head mystery here except perhaps where Seattle Cascades debut relative to Genesis.  Genesis beat Seattle Cascades by 2.000 points.

Lexington, SC - CrownBEAT

  • Jersey Surf will be looking to improve on its best season-opening score in a decade and narrow the gap with Music City. Music City improved its lead over Jersey Surf by 0.200 points.
  • Phantom Regiment has been rapidly improving in score. Let us see if the corps is now ahead of Spirit of Atlanta as this is a match-up with significant finalist implications. Spirit has won all four head-to-head meetings to this point by margins of 1.050, 1.450, 0.950, and 0.250.  Phantom Regiment beat Spirit of Atlanta for the first time this year by 1.250.
  • The competition of the night has to be Carolina Crown and Boston Crusaders. They have met only twice so far with the last time coming back on June 24, an eternity in a drum corps season. Carolina Crown won both by 0.850 and 1.150. The last time both corps competed on the same night - in separate shows - was June 29 and they were essentially even at 78.350 for Boston and 78.300 for Crown. Boston Crusaders won by a tiny margin of 0.150 points.

Sacramento, CA - DCI Capital Classic Corps Show

  • There isn't a lot to see here from a competitive standpoint except whether Vanguard Cadets can narrow the gap with Blue Devils B. Without having championship implications, this is more for local bragging rights than anything else though. All the corps in this show saw large score increases ranging from 2.850 to 4.400. Vanguard Cadets narrowed the gap with Blue Devils B by 0.750.

Lisle, IL - Cavalcade of Brass

  • This has to be the show of the night as East meets West giving us not only a chance to do some new head-to-head comparisons but to use those comparisons to make some inferences about where other corps fit in. This is like a dream come true scenario for people who overanalyze the numbers like me!
  • The Academy vs. Colts is an important indicator of how deep the hunt for finals is going to go. And even if these two corps wind up not fighting for the finals, they will certainly be fighting for the theater broadcast with Madison Scouts in the mix there. Colts defeated The Academy by a healthy margin of 3.400. It does not look like The Academy is part of the same competitive grouping as Colts this year.
  • Blue Stars and The Cadets have not been head-to-head since June 23 when The Cadets had a 1.150 point lead. In non-head-to-head competition, Blue Stars have narrowed that gap considerably. We will find out if that is a paper change or if it is real. If it is real, The Cadets may be in line for an even lower finish than 2018 while Blue Stars would enter the conversation for the corps highest finish in Lucas Oil Stadium history. The Cadets were ahead by a 1.600 margin, larger than the last time the corps met and closer to the corps ahead of them like The Cavaliers than the corps behind them like Blue Stars.
  • The Cavaliers will get their own line in this little analysis because this competition will help us see whether they are in a grouping with the Bluecoats/Santa Clara Vanguard world or the Blue Stars/The Cadets world or stuck on an island between the two. Based on the wide margins of victory of Santa Clara over Cavaliers in multiple meetings on the West Coast, it seems unlikely that the Cavaliers are up there, but it is hard to say what happens when you add Bluecoats to the mix. The Cavaliers were 2.900 points behind Santa Clara Vanguard and only 1.050 points ahead of The Cadets. Based on this one head-to-head showing, the discussion may be about five corps going for medals instead of six.
  • Certainly the prize fight of the entire day is Bluecoats - Santa Clara Vanguard. Bluecoats enter the night as the only undefeated corps in the land. Santa Clara came out stronger from a score standpoint but have not kept pace with Bluecoats since June 25. It is just one show, but this is an important one for the Gold medal conversation. If Bluecoats win by a margin, they have to be the strong favorite based on the tight race we've seen between Blue Devils and Santa Clara Vanguard. If it is tight or Santa Clara Vanguard wins, we have a battle for all three spots at a minimum and possibly the entire top five with Carolina Crown and Boston Crusaders in the mix. Bluecoats maintained its status as the only undefeated corps with a 0.650 point victory over Santa Clara Vanguard. That is enough of a lead for Blue Devils to slot in between the two should they stay above Santa Clara Vanguard like their last meeting or to fall beneath Vanguard should they go back to the earlier season rankings.

Now that all World Class corps have competed, let's take a look at where things stand in 2019 compared to the end of the 2018 season. Analysis only considers corps scheduled to go to Indianapolis.

Largest Increase:

Jersey Surf - Currently ranked #20, Jersey Surf is ten spots higher than where it finished the 2018 season. 
Raiders - Even at its current #32, Raiders are six spots higher than the 2018 season finish. There are a few corps ahead of Raiders right now that end their season sooner and a few corps yet to compete.
Golden Empire - After completing the season through Indy for the first time in 2018, Golden Empire is ranked #30 right now, five spots better than its 2018 final ranking.

Largest Decrease:

Gold earned an Open Class medal in 2018 and finished #23 overall. Coming into this season as the highest ranked Open Class corps going to Indianapolis, the corps is down five spots at #28.
Blue Knights sit in the #11 spot, two places down from the corps' 2018 finals position. If this placement held, it would tie the corps' lowest finishes in Lucas Oil Stadium from 2009 and 2010.
Three corps sit one spot lower than 2018: Carolina Crown, Blue Devils, and Santa Clara Vanguard.

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July 6 Run-Down

We had our first competitive show rained out in Orlando last night which cuts back on some of the analysis on what was scheduled to be the second biggest night of the season so far in terms of corps in competition.

There were no head-to-head placement changes in Whitewater. Bluecoats expanded its lead over Santa Clara Vanguard by 0.150 on the second night of meetings and The Cavaliers stayed back from the leaders. Madison Scouts fell below The Academy in the first meeting of the two corps, putting the corps in the #16 spot and out of the quarterfinals broadcast. The Open Class corps Legends and Colt Cadets put up large score increases of 2.450 and 2.800 respectively. 

Nothing significant out of Renton except to mention that Seattle Cascades and Genesis both saw score decreases, -1.650 and -0.600 respectively.

CSqxQ3r.png

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July 7 Run-Down

Just one show. No placement changes. Within the Top 12, Bluecoats and Santa Clara Vanguard increased as nearly identical rates. In the 7-9 grouping, Blue Stars had a larger gain that the corps ahead of them (The Cadets) and behind them (Crossmen). In the 14-16 grouping, The Academy moved closer to 14th (Colts) and away from 16th (Madison Scouts). In Open Class, River City Rhythm saw a large increase (3.750) after a few days without a show while Legends decreased in score.

Three of the four corps yet to debut for the season compete tonight: Heat Wave, Louisiana Stars, Shadow, and Southwind.

7gE3cCu.png

 

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