hostrauser Posted June 25, 2019 Author Share Posted June 25, 2019 3 hours ago, ThePlanets said: Oh! I have a question since I love stats! How do your current projections compare with each corps score last year? I know this is a PITA. I'm not sure what you're asking? Last year's scores only come into play for corps that have not performed in competition yet. 1 hour ago, Yorkvillain said: My secret formula has Cascades topping Surf also. Was that sarcasm? I can never tell. Anyway, Cascades have finished higher than Jersey Surf each of the past four years. Surf hasn't topped Cascades at Championships Prelims since 2014. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePlanets Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 (edited) 20 minutes ago, hostrauser said: I'm not sure what you're asking? Last year's scores only come into play for corps that have not performed in competition yet. I understand that. I guess the question is using your system for projections the difference in score between this year and last year. For example- Bluecoats 2018 finish 96.95 Projected 2019 finish 96.795 Projected difference. -.155 I don't know your confidence interval- I would expect the margin of error is a little higher at the beginning of the season. So given this data I would say the Bluecoats will have a similar score to last year... maybe slightly lower. Edited June 25, 2019 by ThePlanets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hostrauser Posted June 25, 2019 Author Share Posted June 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, ThePlanets said: I understand that. I guess the question is using your system for projections the difference in score between this year and last year. For example- Bluecoats 2018 finish 96.95 Projected 2019 finish 96.795 Projected difference. -.155 I don't know your confidence interval- I would expect the margin of error is a little higher at the beginning of the season. So given this data I would say the Bluecoats will have a similar score to last year... maybe slightly lower. The P-value this early in the season is hideous. 😂 Yeah, I definitely wouldn't bother doing a deep dive on my numbers until another week or two. The projected numbers will of course change every week as more data is compiled. If I have the time and get bored, I might retroactively plug in early-season 2018 data and see (1) how the corps would have ranked after one week and (2) how they actually ended up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjeffeory Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 6 hours ago, Hook'emCavies said: Lol.... I know how my power rankings would work........ 🙂 I might guess how.... I know how my power rankings would work too! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.