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Hostrauser's DCI Power Rankings - Week 1 (6/24)


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3 hours ago, ThePlanets said:

Oh! I have a question since I love stats!

How do your current projections compare with each corps score last year? 

I know this is a PITA.

I'm not sure what you're asking? Last year's scores only come into play for corps that have not performed in competition yet.

1 hour ago, Yorkvillain said:

My secret formula has Cascades topping Surf also. 

Was that sarcasm? I can never tell. Anyway, Cascades have finished higher than Jersey Surf each of the past four years. Surf hasn't topped Cascades at Championships Prelims since 2014.

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20 minutes ago, hostrauser said:

I'm not sure what you're asking? Last year's scores only come into play for corps that have not performed in competition yet.

 

I understand that. I guess the question is using your system for projections the difference in score between this year and last year. For example- 

Bluecoats 2018 finish 96.95

Projected 2019 finish 96.795

Projected difference.   -.155

 

I don't know your confidence interval- I would expect the margin of error is a little higher at the beginning of the season. So given this data I would say the Bluecoats will have a similar score to last year... maybe slightly lower. 

Edited by ThePlanets
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4 minutes ago, ThePlanets said:

I understand that. I guess the question is using your system for projections the difference in score between this year and last year. For example- 

Bluecoats 2018 finish 96.95

Projected 2019 finish 96.795

Projected difference.   -.155

 

I don't know your confidence interval- I would expect the margin of error is a little higher at the beginning of the season. So given this data I would say the Bluecoats will have a similar score to last year... maybe slightly lower. 

The P-value this early in the season is hideous. 😂 Yeah, I definitely wouldn't bother doing a deep dive on my numbers until another week or two.

The projected numbers will of course change every week as more data is compiled. If I have the time and get bored, I might retroactively plug in early-season 2018 data and see (1) how the corps would have ranked after one week and (2) how they actually ended up.

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6 hours ago, Hook'emCavies said:

Lol.... I know how my power rankings would work........ 🙂

I might guess how....

I know how my power rankings would work too!

  • Haha 1
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