Post ATLANTA Finals Predictions

[geluf]

49 minutes ago, George Dixon said:

or... both of you are wrong 

Didn't like that 11th place slot they gave Cadets I'm guessing. 😄

[George Dixon]

Just now, geluf said:

Didn't like that 11th place slot they gave Cadets I'm guessing. 😄

actually I'm just joking around - things are way too heavy on here. I think Cadets could place anywhere from 8th-11th. 12th is even a possibility.

[geluf]

1 minute ago, George Dixon said:

actually I'm just joking around - things are way too heavy on here. I think Cadets could place anywhere from 8th-11th. 12th is even a possibility.

I think 10th is their floor, but my money is on 9th.

[Algernon]

1. BD - can't imagine they don't increase excellence scores to match the rep scores

2. Bluecoats - a transformational show, yet in the end may not achieve all it deserves

3. SCV -  they will clean this to a diamond, it will sparkle in bronze color

4. Crown - on the strength of music scores

5. Cavaliers -  momentum the last few weeks, most likely with finals week judges

6. Crusaders -  best Boston ever, except drum line

7. Blue Knights -  strong all around effort. Give this design team another year and they could be top 6

8. Blue Stars - now that guard scores are improved, they easily belong in 7-9 range

9. Mandarins -  see comments re: Boston Crusaders

10. Crossmen -  sure is solid and has legs, they can continue to rise with increased excellence

11. Cadets -  the opposite of Crossmen. From the second half of ballad to the end they dont belong in top 12

12. Phantom -  solid music performance scores and the emotion that's built into Fire of Eternal Glory keep them in

13. Spirit -  the show just isn't standing up to repeated viewings

14. Academy - the show never stood up to a single viewing but performers are strong.

15. Colts - premise and design is good. Peformance could elevate them over Academy

16. Pacific Crest -  they have an outside shot at catching the 2 above them. 

17. Scouts - The members are better than the show. They don't deserve to play a role in the melodrama that's happening 

18. Troopers - Young corps that will have to work hard to hold off top 3 in Open Class (as do Scouts)

19. Genesis -  more depth in program than Music City

20. Music City -  limited content and not superb performance to overcome 

21. Cascades - Momentum as they clean a show with many layers

22. Surf -  solid and simple design only goes so far

 

 

 

 

 

[George Dixon]

Just now, geluf said:

I think 10th is their floor, but my money is on 9th.

if we want to get real - I think 9th as well

The pick I was joshing about seems a tad more "emotion" than reality

folks have really got to check out those rep and content scores - really highlights who is going up vs. down

[OldSchoolCorps]

2 hours ago, tigger2 said:

1.  Bluecoats:  It is just so nearly flawlessly designed. Though championship BD has had some great shows this past decade, there are always loose ends, sometime a lot of them, and the re0use of devices has gone from being isms to being predictable. Bluecoats have two small things that will get cleared up. Make the new ending noticeably better and more exciting and I think this is a game changer.  The music ensemble is so good most of the show that I think it is easy to sit back and forget how hard it is to craft and perfect. That high brass lick in the middle that goes on for the length of a Scorsase film is the most amazing "lick" brass feature ever in the activity, and they are spread 30 to 30 in small pods. 

2. BD: This production is a great version of the many shows we have seen from them this past decade. Too many loose ends and it lack heart too frequently. They are great and I enjoy them a lot, but think Blue Coats the better package. 

3. Cavies: I know this is a bit of stretch for many, but based on my two questions (mentioned above), this is where they belong. Total package. Most all captions even. No weakness.

4. SCV: Excellence as effect is their bailiwick. There are 20 other corps that give us that. Not to the same level nor frequency- but it isn't a unique production aspect that we can't experience with other corps. They can explain their show to me over and over and I can even totally buy the whole counter-culture thing, but where's the emotional value? The heart? The excitement based on well crafted pacing that leads to from scene to scene holding your breath? The drab costumes for the musicians is just one more aspect that lowers the shows appeal. Flowy Grey with pink accents? Really? 

5. BOSTON: Such a great show! Would music rather see it over and over than SCV again. Too many "small" aspects that have then 5th for me including the Goliath on stilts thing. 

6. CROWN: Best 6th place corps ever. For me, they suffer from the SCV woes a bit, though I would rather see them again than SCV. Excellence is excellent. 

7. BK: This is also a game changer. Love every beat of every bar. 

8. BLUE STARS:  Love every beat of every bar. A unique voice in the activity. Too many "small" aspects have them just under BK for me. 

9. MANDARINS: Congrats on your second year in. Great show. Less mature performers than those ranked above. Guard helps place them here. 

10. PHANTOM: Besides being most improved in one season, I love this show. 

11. CROSSMEN: Comparable to Mandarins, but still growing the talent level, and consistency in performance. 

12: CADETS: Though percussion scores may keep them higher, the show is just really rough. I love the first stament and then I am done. Many shows ranked lower show MUCH better planning and creativity. 

13. PACIFIC CREST: Maybe I am just a sucker for really well designed shows performed at a high level, but I think the judges are caught off guard by how well this production is designed and some unfortunately do not have the experience with amplification and electronics to take into account that those aspects of their show compare to the skill levels of the top 6. That said, they have much more going for them than just the electronic engineering and incredible musical balance throughout the music ensemble. For me, I  think this is clearly 13th, and not close. I do not know how the on-fleld skills hold up to any detail, but from the stands, it looks and sounds top 12. 

14. SOA: Great show. Better corps than last year's. Too many loose ends and a few bad transitions. Didn't plan out costume changes to the detail needed. Talent still young overall. 

15. ACADEMY: Have improved a lot the past two weeks. May surpass SOA. Some inexperience is still evident in the design and performers. 

16. COLTS: Great show. Best they have been in a while. It is just not getting better at the rate of those above them. 

17. TROOPERS: A tidy show performed well. Some fundamental training and finessing of exposed moments will improve this product a lot the next few weeks. 

18. SCOUTS: Deeper talent that Troopers, but I do not care to see the show again and there is not one phrase that is clean visually or musically (much more a brass issue than percussion). Some design segments are truly elementary level and poor performed. Why does the battery wear white hats? 

19. MUSIC CITY: Good show. Unique. Fun. Great music. Solid production. 

20. GENESIS: The bones for a great production that got a bit away from them in regards to details and making the prop restating flawless. Good corps. 

21. SURF: Logical show that displays great fundamental training. Pacing issues. Expecting more in 2020. 

22. CASCADES: Better music making than 2018. Interesting idea. 

I was with you on these predictions until I got from 14-16. I just can’t drop Colts out of the 15. I think there is a jump left in them, especially after they clean the uniform change transition they just implemented. I like PC, I just think the battle is between Colts and Academy, pretty much like last year.

[cfirwin3]

6 hours ago, Poppycock said:

This makes far more sense to me than Georgie’s 

I agree.  The statistical data doesn't point to anything different, but I suspect that the number 1 spot is going to be a Blue...something in the end.

[cfirwin3]

5 hours ago, George Dixon said:

I based mine if the content rep scores

why does this make more sense - curious?

The content/rep v. achievement analytical trick presumes that achievement is mostly calculated through the lens of content.  That's a good assumption that has consequences for the achievement score and placement at finals... when you aren't analyzing the very top contending groups.

A content score of 10 v. A score of 9.8 are measuring the exact same (top shelf) skill set in achievement.  So if the 10 in content gets a 9.8 in achievement (completely reasonable) and the 9.8 content gets a 10 in achievement (also reasonable), then the best that group one can do is tie.

Bluecoats are pulling heavy achievement numbers against comparable skill sets in spite of an occasional discrepancy in content... and they are doing it consistently.

[George Dixon]

31 minutes ago, cfirwin3 said:

The content/rep v. achievement analytical trick presumes that achievement is mostly calculated through the lens of content.  That's a good assumption that has consequences for the achievement score and placement at finals... when you aren't analyzing the very top contending groups.

A content score of 10 v. A score of 9.8 are measuring the exact same (top shelf) skill set in achievement.  So if the 10 in content gets a 9.8 in achievement (completely reasonable) and the 9.8 content gets a 10 in achievement (also reasonable), then the best that group one can do is tie.

Bluecoats are pulling heavy achievement numbers against comparable skill sets in spite of an occasional discrepancy in content... and they are doing it consistently.

believe me - I'm not rooting against them

of all corps I just wouldn't want BD right behind them with such a strong program

[cfirwin3]

25 minutes ago, George Dixon said:

believe me - I'm not rooting against them

of all corps I just wouldn't want BD right behind them with such a strong program

BD is certainly there to catch them (they have done it once).  But I think your initial prediction put Bluecoats in a 1st to 3rd drop... You would have to suggest that the data is demonstrating a sudden and fairly drastic plateau in their achievement figures in addition to their content (which are also high) to allow SCV to pass them by.  So far, it looks to me that the margins there have remained unchanged for the duration of the season (never quite exceeding a full point).