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26 minutes ago, 27Socal said:

Ran the numbers for finals. I HAVE NEVER SEEN A FINALS JUDGING PANEL SO STACKED AGAINST ONE CORPS.  One corps only won 1 caption against the other.  It came out to a very large spread for the final score.   I'm going to run this one again.  Something seems off here.

Stacked in favor of whom?

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6 minutes ago, Cappybara said:

Stacked in favor of whom?

I think he means BC.  Not quite sure since some judges were not judging the same captions.  My quick and dirty analysis was as follows:

General Effect 1: 
John Howell  -0.1
Michael Stone  +0.1
General Effect 2: 
Glenn Fugett +0.2
Nola Jones +0.1
Visual Proficiency: 
Juno Orefice ?
Visual Analysis: 
William Chumley +0.1
Color Guard: 
Jim Sturgeon +0.2
Music Brass: 
Jeff Harper +0.2
Music Analysis: 
Julie Davila +0.2
Randy Greenwell ?
Field Percussion: 
Jeff Prosperie -0.2/-0.1
 

Minus indicates judge favored BD, Plus indicated judge favored BC.  Looked at nearest and closest encounters, except with JP.  I could tell nothing about 2 of the judges.  

This does not mean that the judge will see the same things on finals night.  History is not always a predictor of the future.  And Both corps have changed things since they were last seen by the individual judges.

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6 hours ago, PamahoNow said:

I think he means BC.  Not quite sure since some judges were not judging the same captions.  My quick and dirty analysis was as follows:

General Effect 1: 
John Howell  -0.1
Michael Stone  +0.1
General Effect 2: 
Glenn Fugett +0.2
Nola Jones +0.1
Visual Proficiency: 
Juno Orefice ?
Visual Analysis: 
William Chumley +0.1
Color Guard: 
Jim Sturgeon +0.2
Music Brass: 
Jeff Harper +0.2
Music Analysis: 
Julie Davila +0.2
Randy Greenwell ?
Field Percussion: 
Jeff Prosperie -0.2/-0.1
 

Minus indicates judge favored BD, Plus indicated judge favored BC.  Looked at nearest and closest encounters, except with JP.  I could tell nothing about 2 of the judges.  

This does not mean that the judge will see the same things on finals night.  History is not always a predictor of the future.  And Both corps have changed things since they were last seen by the individual judges.

You're pretty close to what i had.  You have Bluecoats winning finals by .8 , without the non head to head judges: Howell, Chumley and Greenwell.  When i took educated guesses on those 3, based on the other score in the same caption, on the same day at another show,  I had the finals spread more than double what you had.

This seems hard to believe based on the .1 back and forth we have been seeing lately.

If this happens, I can see a lot of angry people asking who picks these judges and how do they pick them.

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5 hours ago, 27Socal said:

You're pretty close to what i had.  You have Bluecoats winning finals by .8 , without the non head to head judges: Howell, Chumley and Greenwell.  When i took educated guesses on those 3, based on the other score in the same caption, on the same day at another show,  I had the finals spread more than double what you had.

This seems hard to believe based on the .1 back and forth we have been seeing lately.

If this happens, I can see a lot of angry people asking who picks these judges and how do they pick them.

I'm pretty sure the final score will be closer than what this indicates, but who can tell?

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18 hours ago, 27Socal said:

Ran the numbers for prelims.   For the announced judging panel, based on the last head to head in each caption between Bluecoats and Blue Devils, came up with a total spread.  Not sure how close this will be because some of the last head to heads were about 3 weeks ago. The result is: Bluecoats win prelims by .6

Note that this method (add up the last spreads from last judged meeting) was a poor predictor for prelims. The actual result was Bluecoats +0.1.

Or said differently, this panel collectively shifted half a point towards BD since the last time they saw the two groups head-to-head. Who's to say that the Friday & Saturday panels don't do the same?

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