JimF-LowBari Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 In case I was unclear the 200s is number of cases per 1000 in the last 14 days. Total cases for Lehigh county is 2000+. Weird part is I looked and PA and MI are 6th and 7th in total number of cases. But MI death rate is almost double. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurassic Lancer Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 18 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said: In case I was unclear the 200s is number of cases per 1000 in the last 14 days. Total cases for Lehigh county is 2000+. Weird part is I looked and PA and MI are 6th and 7th in total number of cases. But MI death rate is almost double. Wow! 200 per 1000 sounds down right horrific! Stay safe! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimF-LowBari Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, Jurassic Lancer said: Wow! 200 per 1000 sounds down right horrific! Stay safe! Thanks my county is in the 70s last I saw.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllianaLancerContra Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Jurassic Lancer said: My county in MI has 7,477 cases and 750 deaths to date. We have averaged about 150-200 new cases a day for the past week, give or take. And in York County VA we have had 47 cases & 1 death. Total. Out of a population of 68,000 Edited May 3, 2020 by IllianaLancerContra clarity Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimF-LowBari Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, IllianaLancerContra said: And in York County VA we have had 47 cases & 1 death. Total. Out of a population of 68,000 Philadelphia County has 13,000 plus and three PA counties out west each have 1. go figure Edited May 3, 2020 by JimF-LowBari Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllianaLancerContra Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 14 hours ago, JimF-LowBari said: Philadelphia County has 13,000 plus and three PA counties out west each have 1. go figure OK - you asked for it (college professor hat on) 😎 The disease is behaving in a classic density - dependent manner as a limiter of population growth. The more closely packed the population is, the greater the impact. Although originally designed to 'flatten the curve', social distancing - by definition unpacks population density. And 'flattening the curve' has been somewhat mischaracterized from the get-go. The number of cases (the area under the curve for all you calculus fans) remains the same, it is just spread out more over time, thus lowering the chance that the hospital system will get overwhelmed. OK - back on topic - How about designing a show called "COMMONWEALTH vs GEORGE HOPKINS"? Featuring the musical selections: Jailhouse Rock, Folsom Prison Blues, Behind Blue Eyes. I envision guard-tower props on each corner of the field... Thoughts? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimF-LowBari Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 (edited) 28 minutes ago, IllianaLancerContra said: OK - you asked for it (college professor hat on) 😎 The disease is behaving in a classic density - dependent manner as a limiter of population growth. The more closely packed the population is, the greater the impact. Although originally designed to 'flatten the curve', social distancing - by definition unpacks population density. And 'flattening the curve' has been somewhat mischaracterized from the get-go. The number of cases (the area under the curve for all you calculus fans) remains the same, it is just spread out more over time, thus lowering the chance that the hospital system will get overwhelmed. OK - back on topic - How about designing a show called "COMMONWEALTH vs GEORGE HOPKINS"? Featuring the musical selections: Jailhouse Rock, Folsom Prison Blues, Behind Blue Eyes. I envision guard-tower props on each corner of the field... Thoughts? DM dressed as Johnny Cash? Understand the population density bit, just still surprised only one case in some counties. But not sure how close health care might be so could be unreported. And thought only reason for lowering the curve was so health care would not be swamped. State has a dashboard of number of available beds, ICU Units and ventilators and so far so good. And we should hit 50K cases today Edited May 4, 2020 by JimF-LowBari Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllianaLancerContra Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said: DM dressed as Johnny Cash? Understand the population density bit, just still surprised only one case in some counties. But not sure how close health care might be so could be unreported. Underreporting always happens (unless the disease is 100% fatal (like rabies, although there have been a very few survivors in recent years)) - some people slip through the cracks in the system. Plus, there are individuals with sub-clinical infections (and there is growing evidence that there are beaucoup sub-clinical covid infections). Johnny Cash as DM - hmm. I was thinking more of a 6-foot 4-inch bald, heavily tattooed convicted murderer who was also his cell-mate. Bill Cosby & Jerry Sandusky could make an appearance as well... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.E. Brigand Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 3 hours ago, IllianaLancerContra said: And 'flattening the curve' has been somewhat mischaracterized from the get-go. The number of cases (the area under the curve for all you calculus fans) remains the same, it is just spread out more over time, thus lowering the chance that the hospital system will get overwhelmed. Yes, although if you can get the curve flat enough, you can then employ other measures and actually stomp the spread down to basically zero while loosening the original restrictions. - - - - - - - - - - - As for your show idea, I saw two marching bands in 2018 do shows about Alcatraz, one with rather extensive prison-themed props including a guard tower. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Don-O Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 3 hours ago, IllianaLancerContra said: Johnny Cash as DM - hmm. I was thinking more of a 6-foot 4-inch bald, heavily tattooed convicted murderer who was also his cell-mate. Bill Cosby & Jerry Sandusky could make an appearance as well... And I thought I couldn't miss VK any more... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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