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4 hours ago, IllianaLancerContra said:

I am a biology professor who teaches a good bit of epidemiology, so I so know a a few things.

You are correct that nobody knows for sure how this will pan out.  But things need to be kept in in perspective - CDC estimates there will be 45,000,000 cases of influenza in the US this year with 61,000 deaths.  But that doesn't sell add space on the internet.

Also - Covid-19 is an RNA virus.  These tend to be rather sloppy replicators, and tend to burn themselves out.  Ebola is similar in that respect.

The major threat from any of  these respiratory viruses is to already vulnerable populations. Yes, we should be vigilant, wash hands, cover coughs, stay home if feeling sick.

But, I think that at this point it is a bit premature to cancel the 2020 DCI season.

 

(note how I cleverly swung this back to Drum Corps) 

Very good point. I agree that we should be vigilant and prepare as well as possible to take on whatever comes our way. But I won't contend to know what I don't know and will always weigh the statements of experts above my own on a subject like this. I mean H1N1 was what, 10 years ago? Did we have these same questions then and if so, how did that conversation go?

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4 hours ago, garfield said:

I’ve stated here that I think DCI should be prepared to wear big pants and consider cancelling the season, so I’m hardly underpreparing for disaster.

My business is about odds.  I don’t think the odds of that outcome are very high.

I respect your experience. I'm glad you think the music will not stop. 😆

 

(Garfield doesn't look much like Jeremy Irons, though.)

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19 minutes ago, Weaklefthand4ever said:

Very good point. I agree that we should be vigilant and prepare as well as possible to take on whatever comes our way. But I won't contend to know what I don't know and will always weigh the statements of experts above my own on a subject like this. I mean H1N1 was what, 10 years ago? Did we have these same questions then and if so, how did that conversation go?

This was the worst illness of any kind that I’ve  ever had.  I was 20, healthy as a horse, and I thought I was gonna die.  The only thing I could force down was pudding.  It was the DEVIL https://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3_pandemic-1977.htm

Edited by Terri Schehr

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12 minutes ago, Terri Schehr said:

This was the worst illness of any kind that I’ve  ever had.  I was 20, healthy as a horse, and I thought I was gonna die.  The only thing I could force down was pudding.  It was the DEVIL https://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3_pandemic-1977.htm

See, that's why the previous generation is tougher than us Gen-X'ers. We just had to survive the Apple 2+ and 300 baud modems. Oh, and Ludwig drums that weighed 763 lbs. Oh!!! And that terrible AhHa "Take on me" music video that no one knows the actual words to.

Edited by Weaklefthand4ever
  • Haha 2

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5 hours ago, wolfgang said:

Context can be your friend. Quote from USA Today article fact-checking the news conference.

https://www.usatodya...community-spread/4887328002/

"The first 14 cases confirmed in the United States included 12 travelers returning from China and two individuals who had close contact with those travelers. The California man is the 15th confirmed case, not counting infected passengers from Diamond Princess and others repatriated from Wuhan, China."

And yes, I am aware as of this post one case in Oregon and two in Washington state have been dx'ed (one of those two appears travel-related).

Not sure why the other 45 infected (repatriated) Americans don't count, and I'm glad that garfield thinks they do count, but thank you for this link (from Wednesday evening -- I was referring to a statement still using the 15 figure two days later, but obviously the same distinction that you cite here applies).

One of the Washington patients died today. Statistically, that puts the mortality rate in the U.S. at 1.4%. But obviously the sample size is small.

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3 minutes ago, Weaklefthand4ever said:

See, that's why the previous generation is tougher than us Gen-X'ers. We just had to survive the Apple 2+ and 300 baud modems. Oh, and Ludwig drums that weighed 763 lbs. Oh!!! And that terrible A-ha "Take on Me" music video that no one knows the actual words to.

That's a great video! But here's someone who agrees with you:

 

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3 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

That's a great video! But here's someone who agrees with you:

 

That's pretty fantastic. Now if we could just do one on what was wrong with the entire decade of the 80's..that would really be something. 

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1 hour ago, Terri Schehr said:

This was the worst illness of any kind that I’ve  ever had.  I was 20, healthy as a horse, and I thought I was gonna die.  The only thing I could force down was pudding.  It was the DEVIL https://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3_pandemic-1977.htm

Pudding is good.

Waffles are better.

Pudding on waffles is best.

 

But [attempt at] humor aside - the various HxNx flues can indeed be serious (the Hx & Nx refer to specific surface proteins on various strains; there are 16H's & 9 N's that mix & match).  Pandemic influenza of 1918 was also H1N1 & it did tend to hit younger, healthier individuals; and very crowded troop ships carrying soldiers back from WW1 helped transport it world-wide.  It is estimated the 1/3 of the world population came down with the disease; with 40-50 MILLION deaths.  That is in the same ballpark as the number killed in WW2 (including the Holocaust).

Edited by IllianaLancerContra
further clarification and pontificating
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A little levity from the Middle East:

 

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34 minutes ago, IllianaLancerContra said:

Pudding is good.

Waffles are better.

Pudding on waffles is best.

 

But [attempt at] humor aside - the various HxNx flues can indeed be serious (the Hx & Nx refer to specific surface proteins on various strains; there are 16H's & 9 N's that mix & match).  Pandemic influenza of 1918 was also H1N1 & it did tend to hit younger, healthier individuals; and very crowded troop ships carrying soldiers back from WW1 helped transport it world-wide.  It is estimated the 1/3 of the world population came down with the disease; with 40-50 MILLION deaths.  That is in the same ballpark as the number killed in WW2 (including the Holocaust).

I didn’t know, until I saw the video you posted, that there was a potential connection to ACE2 expression sites and coronavirus cell entry. Makes you wander if some of the younger (seemingly healthy, Immunocompetent) deaths were associated with a genetic predisposition to be more susceptible. (I just glanced at a couple of articles but it’s an interesting consideration.)

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