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2 hours ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Not sure why the other 45 infected (repatriated) Americans don't count, and I'm glad that garfield thinks they do count, but thank you for this link (from Wednesday evening -- I was referring to a statement still using the 15 figure two days later, but obviously the same distinction that you cite here applies).

One of the Washington patients died today. Statistically, that puts the mortality rate in the U.S. at 1.4%. But obviously the sample size is small.

you seem to be wanting to make this a very political conversation - no one has said "they don't count" but when counting cases contracted/derived IN the USA the ones from the cruise shouldn't be included obviously

the 50 y/o patient who sadly passed away had compromised health - which is the case with the vast majority of the deaths

I listened carefully to each official in today's press conference - each continued to explain the risk to a typical American remains very low

Re: drum corps - I still believe this will run its course long before we see impact to the summer schedule/tour

"wash your hands" remains the most prudent advice

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12 minutes ago, George Dixon said:

you seem to be wanting to make this a very political conversation - no one has said "they don't count" but when counting cases contracted/derived IN the USA the ones from the cruise shouldn't be included obviously

the 50 y/o patient who sadly passed away had compromised health - which is the case with the vast majority of the deaths

I listened carefully to each official in today's press conference - each continued to explain the risk to a typical American remains very low

Re: drum corps - I still believe this will run its course long before we see impact to the summer schedule/tour

"wash your hands" remains the most prudent advice

Bottom line...drum corps people always seem to think the activity is immune to the world around it...it's not...in every aspect. Every summer you hear of a corps ( sometimes not able to perform ) with stomach flu, etc etc that travels through a corps. It happens with extended tours. Not like we had BITD. SO, if this continues it will affect the activity BUT the powers to be just have to be more diligent in many ways to keep everyone safe and healthy and much as one can.

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1 hour ago, GUARDLING said:

Bottom line...drum corps people always seem to think the activity is immune to the world around it...

Well I know they don’t think they are immune to gas prices, food prices, mom and dad having jobs and the corps aged members not off fighting some foreign war

But yes / as far as illness, most young people seem to feel immune. since this corona seems highly contagious and has a seemingly long incubation period it could sweep through and entire drum corps quickly. So the activity must monitor and educate 

Fortunately this will likely be in the distant rear view mirror soon 

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1 hour ago, year1buick said:

I didn’t know, until I saw the video you posted, that there was a potential connection to ACE2 expression sites and coronavirus cell entry. Makes you wander if some of the younger (seemingly healthy, Immunocompetent) deaths were associated with a genetic predisposition to be more susceptible. (I just glanced at a couple of articles but it’s an interesting consideration.)

It is hard to say - in general genetic predisposition to a given disease certainly exists, but that can take some time to work out.  We had an expression when I was in grad school in Louisiana -'when you are up to your a** in alligators, it is hard to remember that your goal was to drain the swamp'.  The health officials are more concerned right now with treating current cases, looking for new cases, and doing their best to prevent further transmission.  I hope someone is collecting a whole bunch of data on the current cases, so at some point we have a big data set to look at to determine what really happened, why it happened, & what can we do better next time (& I suspect they are collecting this data).

 

ps - you might enjoy this video as well

 

Edited by IllianaLancerContra
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2 hours ago, IllianaLancerContra said:

But [attempt at] humor aside - the various HxNx flues can indeed be serious (the Hx & Nx refer to specific surface proteins on various strains; there are 16H's & 9 N's that mix & match).  Pandemic influenza of 1918 was also H1N1 & it did tend to hit younger, healthier individuals; and very crowded troop ships carrying soldiers back from WW1 helped transport it world-wide.  It is estimated the 1/3 of the world population came down with the disease; with 40-50 MILLION deaths.  That is in the same ballpark as the number killed in WW2 (including the Holocaust).

Farewell and adieu to you, fair Spanish ladies. Farewell and adieu to you, ladies of Spain.

Another possibly relevant factor in the spread of the Spanish flu in 1918 is indicated by its very name:

"To maintain morale, wartime censors minimized early reports of illness and mortality in Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and the United States. Papers were free to report the epidemic's effects in neutral Spain (such as the grave illness of King Alfonso XIII). These stories created a false impression of Spain as especially hard hit, giving rise to the pandemic's nickname, 'Spanish flu.'"

- - - - - - - - - -

China's government ordered the researchers who first recognized the danger of COVID-19 to destroy their research in December, and threatened one doctor who tried to raise a public alarm (he has since died from the disease). Only after another month had gone by did they begin to take it seriously.

Iran's government clearly has been lying about the number of infections in that country -- either that or the mortality rate in that country is two orders of magnitude higher than anywhere else in the world. But now that multiple senior government officials have taken ill, they're starting to reveal the true numbers.

So contra* what George says above, the very non-political point I've been trying to make is that some world leaders believe (or believed) that it was in their interest to cover up the seriousness of the outbreak. The best way to make an outbreak less serious is, of course, to respond early to reports rather than to bury them.

 

Bugle_201.png

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I was obsessed with drum corps when I was in high school and college.  I've always been obsessed in what thinking what the future would be like.  I've always considered the 2020s decade to be the really distant future.  I used to try to imagine a time in 2020 and guess how drum corps might be different, who would be champion, and all the champions and history in between.  Even at the time I could never imagine the 2020 Finals actually taking place.  I assumed that money problems might cause the activity to die by this time.  Maybe it'll be a pandemic that keeps this year's finals from happening.  If this vision be taken as strange, I point out that I foresaw the collapse of the twin towers in 1987.  This still scares the s*** out of me.  (I know this is an inappropriate comparison, but both seemed real to me at the time.)

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1 hour ago, George Dixon said:

Well I know they don’t think they are immune to gas prices, food prices, mom and dad having jobs and the corps aged members not off fighting some foreign war

But yes / as far as illness, most young people seem to feel immune. since this corona seems highly contagious and has a seemingly long incubation period it could sweep through and entire drum corps quickly. So the activity must monitor and educate 

Fortunately this will likely be in the distant rear view mirror soon 

Yes hopefully. You are right about that they don't think they are immune to the things you say BUT what I meant was also politics, community pitfalls as well as community development. which also ties into the things you mentioned.

It being almost March with 2 months from move in's, there for sure has to be precautions by management and go beyond what we are being told ( can't always trust for sure, sadly )  . Not panic for sure BUT awareness for all

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On 2/26/2020 at 7:16 PM, N.E. Brigand said:

Also this afternoon the Director of Health and Human Services, Alex Azar, told Congress that if a vaccine for COVID-19 does become available, it's quite possible that not everyone will be able to afford it.

So start saving up now.

Some good news per this article in Business Insider: a provision in a 2010 law would require most health insurers to cover an individual's cost for a COVID-19 vaccine. So unless that law were to be repealed for some reason between now and when the vaccine becomes available, financial reasons shouldn't prevent people from getting it.

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Two cents... I heard a report mentioning that COVID-19 may be less transmittable as the temperatures go up, like other viruses.  

I don't know about you, but rehearsing in a stadium in Texas sounds fairly safe to me.... 

(moment of levity...  now, back to the doom and gloom...)

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1 hour ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Farewell and adieu to you, fair Spanish ladies. Farewell and adieu to you, ladies of Spain.

Another possibly relevant factor in the spread of the Spanish flu in 1918 is indicated by its very name:

"To maintain morale, wartime censors minimized early reports of illness and mortality in Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and the United States. Papers were free to report the epidemic's effects in neutral Spain (such as the grave illness of King Alfonso XIII). These stories created a false impression of Spain as especially hard hit, giving rise to the pandemic's nickname, 'Spanish flu.'"

 

True - there is some evidence to support the idea that "Spanish Flu' actually originated at Ft Riley, Kansas.  

If today there was the level of press censorship in the US of A prosecuted under the auspices of the Espionage Act of 1917, there would be immense wailing and gnashing of teeth.

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