Coronavirus

[Ghost]

Asia seems to be involved with most of these pandemics.  https://www.mphonline.org/worst-pandemics-in-history/

[garfield]

2 minutes ago, Ghost said:

Asia seems to be involved with most of these pandemics.  https://www.mphonline.org/worst-pandemics-in-history/

TMI, TLDR.  Can you summarize?  How many out of how many over what period over time and whether their data is at all adjusted for normal societal improvement like eating meat protein and improving their health care systems.  Globally, China emerged from "Emerging Market" to "Quasi-Developed" market.  There has to be adjustment for variance outside of normal progression.

 

[N.E. Brigand]

A sad report on some happenings last month in Wuhan:

Two Women Fell Sick From Coronavirus. One Survived.

  

 

One was a nurse; the other a doctor. Both were 29 years old and the mothers of young children. Both were hospitalized after falling ill from the disease they were treating (at different hospitals). One recovered after 17 days (followed by 14 more days of self-quarantining). The other succumbed after 35 days.

[skevinp]

10 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said:

I will be ###### if someone says her life doesn’t matter because it’s only 1 out of many and she would have died anyway. 

I really, really, really, don’t think that is what anyone is saying, and I am truly very sorry about your wife.  

The “I care more” and “I am a better person” theme has cropped up on DCP before and has been wielded savagely.  I should have known better to assume that was the case with your posts, especially given your long history of civility here.  

[N.E. Brigand]

14 minutes ago, Ghost said:

Asia seems to be involved with most of these pandemics.  https://www.mphonline.org/worst-pandemics-in-history/

Well, it's a big place with lots of people.

But it's worth mentioning that the "Spanish Flu" pandemic of 1918-19 very possibly originated in Kansas.

And the "Swine Flu" pandemic of 2009-10 seems to have started in Mexico.

[N.E. Brigand]

On 2/28/2020 at 6:08 PM, George Dixon said:

It’s over hyped - get back to me in 2-3 weeks. 

Today, two weeks later, the President declared it a national emergency.

[Fred Windish]

4 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Improve from 99% to 95%, perhaps. I'd love to wrong about this!

But these actions, valuable as they will be, would have been more helpful still before news like this:

"'Don't believe the numbers you see': Johns Hopkins professor says up to 500,000 Americans have coronavirus."

If he's right, and the numbers double every six days, then when people here were saying at the end of February there were only 62 cases, which was indeed the confirmed number at the time (when only about 500 tests had been conducted), the real number was about 125,000.

Even I, who was vociferous here that the real number was much higher than 62, hadn't thought it was that much.

 

My good man,  I believe you already know the regular seasonal flu is a Coronavirus. There is thought to be many different varieties of Coronavirus.

A Johns Hopkins professor, despite the elite reputation of that institution, was giving an opinion, an estimate.

Regardless, I believe the season could be saved in some form. I would expect, however, less corps touring, fewer shows, housing problems, some performers dropping out from participating. With all that, the Directors might decide it’s just not worth the effort.

I’ll respect whatever they decide and continue my support. You will, too!

[JimF-LowBari]

Will just feel better once more testing kits get out and we can really see where the US stands with number of cases and where.

Meanwhile my “kid” (50ish) sister has been sending texts that between the lines say “keep your (CDC definition) elderly butt at home”. 

[N.E. Brigand]

Just now, Fred Windish said:

My good man,  I believe you already know the regular seasonal flu is a Coronavirus. There is thought to be many different varieties of Coronavirus.

A Johns Hopkins professor, despite the elite reputation of that institution, was giving an opinion, an estimate.

Regardless, I believe the season could be saved in some form. I would expect, however, less corps touring, fewer shows, housing problems, some performers dropping out from participating. With all that, the Directors might decide it’s just not worth the effort.

I’ll respect whatever they decide and continue my support. You will, too!

Look, I hate feeling like Cassandra. I really do.

But here's another estimate for you: the health director for the state of Ohio estimates that 1% of Ohioans have been infected. That means 100,000 people here alone.

It was on the basis of the Ohio Dept. of Health's advice that our Republican governor shut down schools (for three weeks) and events (indefinitely) yesterday.

I absolutely admit that both these experts can't be right: it's not logical that Ohio has one-fifth of all U.S. infections.

Regardless, both of them say the officially confirmed numbers are not indicative of the actual spread of this disease.

It would be awesome if they were completely wrong.

I don't expect that's the case. And you shouldn't either.

Hope for the best. But plan for the worst.

[N.E. Brigand]

"The COVID19 Catch-22:

1. Because there aren't enough tests...

2. A person with symptoms can’t get tested unless they come in contact with someone with confirmed case of COVID19.

3. But because there aren’t enough tests, we don’t know how many undiagnosed people with COVID19 there are out there ...

4. Which means people with COVID19 can’t prove they deserve a test because the people they got it from aren’t able to get a test."

 

Hopefully this will be remedied soon.