Jump to content

If COVID-19 shuts down 2020 tour


Recommended Posts

12 hours ago, Terri Schehr said:

My sister is a RN/BSN.  It’s been a tough few weeks but she’s a tough girl.  She’s kept her sense of humor. 

I know someone that's an RN, taking every precaution....and now they have it, and aren't doing well at all, and not in the most vulnerable groups.

  • Sad 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Jurassic Lancer said:

Citation, please.

Its just math, no citation necessary.  The number of fatalities is known, but the number infected is estimated.  Therefore for the same number of deaths, increasing the number of infected (the denominator) to another large estimated  number, reduces the percentage.  Since the number of infected is just pure speculation, but the number of dead is not, any percentage is pure speculation, including the "so-called" present % cited by many.  The denominator or number of infected has been underestimated by all countries, since nobody (country) has tested all of their citizens.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Jurassic Lancer said:

Citation, please.

Like Bob P. said - math.

Seeing more and more use of one-sided statistics stripped of their proper balanced context, usually erring on the worst-case side.  Not trying to minimize the seriousness of the situation... just hoping to avert unnecessary panic.

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Our school system is shutting down earlier than the state requirement.  All I can do at this point is take care of my parents, quarantine, & pray.  This is what's going on with our health care workers in Seattle.  You can google this Doctor's twitter account, Dr. Scott Mintzer from Philadelphia, or read below: 

From Scott Mintzer on Twitter

I’ve been in touch with an intensivist at a Seattle hospital with one of the highest numbers of COVID-19 admissions in the US.

They’ve been too exhausted to post much themselves, so I am conveying some of what I’ve been told, which is… eye-opening. To say the least. /1 
The Seattle situation isn’t quite at Lombardy levels yet… but it’s getting there.

First of all regarding the clinicians. None are sleeping more than a couple hrs a night. Everyone is utterly exhausted. My colleague has seen so many people die as to have become totally numb. /2 

It’s also nearing Status Lombardosus with regard to resources. They haven’t run out of ventilators (yet), but every single ICU bed in Seattle metro is full. And the onslaught shows no signs of stopping. They’ve run out of other things as well. /3 

My colleague saw a patient who had a half-full syringe left attached to her IV line. The syringe had an antibiotic. First thought was that this was some gross nursing error.  
It turned out not to be a mistake at all, but rather an accomodation to dire circumstances. /4
 
It was a drug that was supposed to be infused over hours. But there were no IV pumps available. So the nurse had given some of it, left the syringe attached, and planned to come by to give more a little later, and then finish it.  
Here in the wealthiest country in the world. /5 

They are also at the point of having to ration some kinds of care. For the most severely ill patients, there’s a machine called ECMO — extracorporeal membrane oxygenation — which is basically like an external lung that oxygenates blood when the patient’s lungs won’t work. /6 

Seattle has 12 machines, which is less than what’s needed. So a central committee there is deciding: you can’t go on ECMO if you're >40 yrs old, if you have another organ system failing, or… incredibly… if your BMI is>25. Turns out these are all major poor prognostic signs. /7 

(Note: that doesn’t mean that anybody with a BMI >25 is in trouble if they get COVID. Just that if you’re critically ill from it, that is apparently a poor prognostic marker. Not sure anybody has a clear idea why.) /8 

Meanwhile the combo of exhausted health care workers & no open ICU beds has made a very hazardous health situation for the entire region. If you have a stroke, a heart attack, etc., it will be hard to get the best care. There are patients in ERs for hours waiting for ICU beds. /9 

My colleague told me something else remarkable: COVID patients are not dying of lung disease.  
This seems to be a very distinct syndrome, and in severe cases the pneumonia leads to ARDS, a condition in which the lungs leak fluid & the patient can’t breathe w/out a ventilator. /10 

But apparently the ARDS is not too severe, and they can manage people through that part of it.  
Instead, after several days, the virus suddenly attacks the heart, causing it to precipitously fail. The myocarditis phase is savage and kills people within a day or two. /11
 
My colleague has seen a number of cases in which multiple family members were in the hospital and critically ill. Maybe this means there’s some genetic predisposition, but it’s probably too soon to say. /12
 
And then there’s the fear that comes with an epidemic. Apparently people shopping wearing the hospital’s logo on their clothing have been asked to leave the store. And some who work in the hospital have been asked to move out of their apartment buildings for a few months. /13
 
Restaurants have refused food delivery, with some of them refusing to even leave the food on the ground outside. The hospital had to send the medics to go pick it up. One doc’s housekeeper refused to come clean for her. /14
 
In short, this is a nightmare, teetering on the precipice of even worse destruction. The goal of every American city should be to avoid becoming the next Seattle.

UPDATE:  The Dr removed his post last night.  Reading into his tweet, he must have been receiving push back from someone.

From Scott Mintzer on Twitter

I had to delete the thread I Tweeted earlier today because of concerns about the amount of attention it was getting and the accuracy of some of the information.  The common theme: don't spread things that shouldn't be spread.  And be responsible for, and to, everyone else.

Edited by keystone3ply
correction
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, keystone3ply said:


 
In short, this is a nightmare, teetering on the precipice of even worse destruction. The goal of every American city should be to avoid becoming the next Seattle.

Amazingly & tragically insightful.  If this is the case in a rich city imagine what it could be elsewhere? One ER Doc (40's) in Seattle and one (70's) in NJ in critical condition.  Thoughts and prayers go out to all First Responders and Providers and victims.     

Edited by DCVNVET
shorten quote - add ages
  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, keystone3ply said:

This is what's going on with our health care workers in Seattle.  You can google this Doctor's twitter account, Dr. Scott Mintzer from Philadelphia, or read below: 

From Scott Mintzer on Twitter

(snip)

UPDATE:  The Dr removed his post last night.  Reading into his tweet, he must have been receiving push back from someone.

From Scott Mintzer on Twitter

I had to delete the thread I Tweeted earlier today because of concerns about the amount of attention it was getting and the accuracy of some of the information.  The common theme: don't spread things that shouldn't be spread.  And be responsible for, and to, everyone else.

Maybe it was removed partly because of what I underlined above.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The most recent guidance from the CDC, issued March 15, "recommends that for the next 8 weeks, organizers (whether groups or individuals) cancel or postpone in-person events that consist of 50 people or more throughout the United States."

Two facts:

1. A DCI camp involves a group far larger than 50 people

2. Eight weeks from today takes us into mid-May, right on the precipice of reporting for move-ins.

Unless DCI wants to answer questions why it is willfully disregarding CDC guidance, this would seem to remove the possibility of any corps holding any kind of camp until mid-May. Many March camps already had been cancelled; it looks like April will have to be scratched, too. Perhaps corps could run 2 or 3 separate camps for the horn line during a camp weekend, then put the drum line over at a separate facility and the guard in 1 or 2 different locations, but running the equivalent of 6 mini-camps in one city on the same weekend, without the ability to circulate the staff among them, and without the ability for full-ensemble time, seems both logistically impractical and instructionally marginal.

This raises the prospect that, under the current CDC guidance (and assuming it is not later extended beyond 8 weeks), from an ensemble standpoint anyway, all corps will start the 2020 season essentially from scratch in late May. The members might know their music and guard work; they might have practiced relentlessly, but no one will have logged any appreciable ensemble time before reporting to move-ins. From an instruction and cohesion standpoint, corps will be starting their spring training way behind.

And if all of that proves to be true, the arc of the 2020 season will be very different from seasons past.

 

Edited by 2muchcoffeeman
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, cixelsyd said:

Maybe it was removed partly because of what I underlined above.

Updated post after my first ,was going to amend because of that statement, but I figured if only 1/3 was accurate it's still a difficult situation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/15/2020 at 9:39 AM, cixelsyd said:

As far as I am concerned, "media" is now a four letter word.

Media is like food. There's highly nourishing stuff out there, junk food and everything in between. Treating all media as a monolith is odious. In this information age, each individual must be discerning about what to ingest. Find a few quality, trusted sources and follow them. And for Pete's sake support them with subscriptions, etc. so that real journalism doesn't get supplanted by social media garbage. Like most things today - buyer beware. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...