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If COVID-19 shuts down 2020 tour


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1 minute ago, DCVNVET said:

Ditto;  I don't do Facebook, Twitter, etc. so I couldn't research. I thought the pressure might have been professional in nature, threatening an ethics issue possibly.  Como appointed a Committee today to review hospital bed space in NYC.  950+ cases out of that 150 hospitalized.  Your right it's not Italy and they, the powers at be want to head off that scenario GL.   FLATTENTHECURVE    

Yes, that's what I meant by supervisor.  Think it had to do with an ethics issue as you stated.  I Facebook but don't Twitter.  But you can google their name & read most post without an Twitter account.  That's how I keep up with the USA reporter Tricia L Nadolny's post about the GH investigation.       

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8 hours ago, Bob P. said:

Its just math, no citation necessary.  The number of fatalities is known, but the number infected is estimated.  Therefore for the same number of deaths, increasing the number of infected (the denominator) to another large estimated  number, reduces the percentage.  Since the number of infected is just pure speculation, but the number of dead is not, any percentage is pure speculation, including the "so-called" present % cited by many.  The denominator or number of infected has been underestimated by all countries, since nobody (country) has tested all of their citizens.

OK, but this argument also means we don't know the number of flu infections in a given year either: we certainly don't test everyone for that either.

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1 hour ago, GlenI said:

Media is like food. There's highly nourishing stuff out there, junk food and everything in between. Treating all media as a monolith is odious. In this information age, each individual must be discerning about what to ingest. Find a few quality, trusted sources and follow them. And for Pete's sake support them with subscriptions, etc. so that real journalism doesn't get supplanted by social media garbage. Like most things today - buyer beware. 

And it was ever thus. There has been good journalism and bad journalism as long as journalism has existed. Also the idea that reporters should be objective (which I generally endorse) is a fairly recent notion and not typical of the history of journalism. It's not that there weren't neutral journalists in the 1600s, 1700s, and 1800s, but that was seen as optional.

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5 hours ago, keystone3ply said:

Our school system is shutting down earlier than the state requirement.  All I can do at this point is take care of my parents, quarantine, & pray.  This is what's going on with our health care workers in Seattle.  You can google this Doctor's twitter account, Dr. Scott Mintzer from Philadelphia, or read below: 

From Scott Mintzer on Twitter:

"I’ve been in touch with an intensivist at a Seattle hospital with one of the highest numbers of COVID-19 admissions in the US.

They’ve been too exhausted to post much themselves, so I am conveying some of what I’ve been told, which is… eye-opening. To say the least. /1 
The Seattle situation isn’t quite at Lombardy levels yet… but it’s getting there.

[...]
Restaurants have refused food delivery, with some of them refusing to even leave the food on the ground outside. The hospital had to send the medics to go pick it up. One doc’s housekeeper refused to come clean for her. /14
 
In short, this is a nightmare, teetering on the precipice of even worse destruction. The goal of every American city should be to avoid becoming the next Seattle."

UPDATE:  The doctor removed his post last night.  Reading into his tweet, he must have been receiving push back from someone.
From Scott Mintzer on Twitter:

"I had to delete the thread I Tweeted earlier today because of concerns about the amount of attention it was getting and the accuracy of some of the information.  The common theme: don't spread things that shouldn't be spread.  And be responsible for, and to, everyone else.

There's a valuable point to be gleaned from this retraction about the values of different kinds of media.

I saw the initial thread yesterday. Although his account doesn't have the blue checkmark that "verifies" users, it certainly seems to be the real Dr. Scott Mintzer of Jefferson University Hospitals. So I'm inclined to believe that he really did speak with an actual doctor he knows in Seattle, but there was too much detail that made it clear which specific hospital that doctor works at, and not enough perspective beyond that one doctor's point of view, and so either Mintzer's employer or the Seattle hospital pushed back, citing ethical concerns. And it is to Dr. Mintzer's credit that he retracted when he had reasons to believe he wasn't presenting the full picture. That said, the retraction will get far less attention than the original thread did.

I really appreciated this reply someone posted there:

"One of the things I've learned as a journalist is that nobody in the trenches has a perfect operating picture, especially in something as complex as an entire health care system. Even honest, reliable people tell you a lot of stuff that just isn't correct.

If you're writing an article, you're always cross-checking between multiple narratives and sifting out the minor factual errors that every first person account has. A weakness of a straight 'oral history' is that it puts forward one person's take without that cross-checking.

That doesn't mean that oral history is bad, it just means that sophisticated consumers of information have to take it for what it's worth--as essentially raw material. Don't draw sweeping conclusions from it, but don't dismiss it out of hand because the source lacks perfect info."

One value of social media is that "oral histories" can be presented in near-real time by real people with real experiences and no filter to "bias" what they're saying.

(Dr. Mintzer's report actually isn't quite that, since he was relaying what he was told by someone else, but it was close.)

But obviously everyone is biased, no matter how hard they try not to be. And traditional media, whose main bias is to favor power and money, does have the advantage of mostly holding regular standards and of culling the most sensational unconfirmed stuff that gets spread so widely on Twitter and Facebook. (Twitter is better, but as this example shows, obviously flawed.)

Anyway, here's an interview in a traditional media outlet, The Atlantic (whose coronavirus coverage is free, by the way), that's similar in character to what Dr. Mintzer tweeted, but its source is named, it's written up by a professional journalist, asking probing questions, and it was reviewed by a professional editor:

A Frontline Physician Speaks Out on the Coronavirus

The doctor in question works in Boston. Things are not as bad there yet as in Seattle, but they're not good, and the staff are already facing new challenges, and they're gearing up for possible worst case scenarios.

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"Social distancing probably can stop the outbreak before it runs through the whole population. It is not necessary to stop all transmissions -- you just need less than 1 transmission per infected person on average. But this will require very disruptive and prolonged changes ... There is likely no way to 'manage' the spread of the virus through the mass population and maintain sufficient hospital capacity. The only option is to stop the outbreak."

And we don't seem to be equipped to do that.

This Will Get Worse: The Grim Math of a Coronavirus Future.

We shouldn't give up! But we need to take immensely larger steps.

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3 hours ago, Jeff Ream said:

i think at this stage, they have to pretend all will be well until they know more.

Maybe, but they may also be waiting for all the member corps to check how cancelling the season will affect them (mm, sponsors, vendors, etc.) not only this year, but future years.  

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Well the news conference just said we could be under emergency measures until July, Which would mean no 2020 DCI season

 

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9 minutes ago, Terri Schehr said:

And I missed the NCAA Men's conference championships this weekend & the selection show Sunday evening.  No NCAA tournament that normally starts tomorrow night.  Hell, I even miss the XFL!  A world without sports & the possibility of no DCI tour.  Now we've suspended school & church for at least 3 weeks; maybe more.  It's all surreal.  

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10 minutes ago, keystone3ply said:

And I missed the NCAA Men's conference championships this weekend & the selection show Sunday evening.  No NCAA tournament that normally starts tomorrow night.  Hell, I even miss the XFL!  A world without sports & the possibility of no DCI tour.  Now we've suspended school & church for at least 3 weeks; maybe more.  It's all surreal.  

We are protecting people with compromised immune systems and the elderly.  I guess we’ll get the measure of our salt as people in this country.  We’ve become as soft as a grape.  Maybe this will toughen us up a bit. 

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